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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden Construction Output YoY fell to 1.1% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Sweden Construction Output YoY fell to 1.1% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 4.1% from June's 5.2% reading. The reading missed the 4.4% consensus by 3.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.12%. Over the past 3 months, Construction Output YoY averaged 5.6%, vs 3.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 50th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
4.4
Consensus
5.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.99 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5.95
Actual: 1.1
Error: +4.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Output YoY (Sweden) was reported at 1.1% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.4% by 3.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.36%, ranging from -2.3% to 7.6% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.1%, up from the prior three at 0.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.37%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.68%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Construction Output YoY has averaged -3.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.99%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 24).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Construction Output YoY - SE
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About Construction Output YoY — Sweden
DEFINITION
Construction Output YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of construction projects completed in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of the construction industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.1 %, consensus 4.4 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 7.6 %. Before that (May 2026): 3.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.61) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - SE Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | SE | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | CPIF MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | CPIF YoY | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | Inflation Rate YoY | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | SE | Employed Persons | 5.507 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | SE | Unemployment Rate | 7.8 | 8.2 | 8.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | SE | Household Consumption MoM | 1.6 | -0.9 | -0.90 | Low | |
| 06:00 | SE | Household Consumption YoY | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |