Sweden’s Consumer Confidence for November 2025 came in at 95.80, down from 96.10 in October but still above the 12-month average of 91.80, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. The figure also fell short of the consensus estimate of 97.50, signaling a slight pullback in household sentiment as the year closes.

Drivers This Month

• Rising borrowing costs amid the Riksbank’s recent rate hikes weighed on consumer optimism.
• Inflationary pressures remain sticky, eroding real purchasing power despite wage gains.
• Geopolitical tensions in Europe and global supply chain disruptions contributed to cautious spending outlooks.

Policy Pulse

The Riksbank’s monetary tightening cycle, with the policy rate now at 3.75%, is aimed at curbing inflation running above the 2% target. This has increased financial conditions, dampening consumer credit availability and confidence. Meanwhile, government fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with targeted stimulus measures supporting vulnerable sectors.

Market Lens

In the immediate aftermath of the release, the SEK/USD currency pair showed a slight depreciation of 0.15%, reflecting investor caution. Swedish equity indices such as OMXS30 were largely unchanged, indicating a wait-and-see stance among market participants.

Consumer confidence is a critical barometer of household spending intentions, which drive roughly 50% of Sweden’s GDP. The November 2025 reading of 95.80 compares to 96.10 in October and 93.20 in September, showing a mild downward trend over the last two months but still above the 2025 average of 91.80. Year-over-year, confidence has improved from 89.80 in November 2024, reflecting gradual recovery from pandemic-related disruptions.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Riksbank’s tightening has pushed borrowing costs higher, with mortgage rates rising by approximately 40 basis points since September. This has cooled housing market activity and consumer credit growth, key drivers of confidence. Inflation remains elevated at 5.10% year-over-year, pressuring real incomes despite nominal wage growth of 3.40%.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Sweden’s government budget remains in modest deficit territory, with fiscal stimulus focused on energy subsidies and social welfare enhancements. These measures have helped cushion consumer sentiment but have not fully offset inflationary pressures or tighter credit conditions.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and uncertainties around global trade have contributed to cautious consumer outlooks. Supply chain bottlenecks, though easing, still affect key sectors such as automotive and electronics, limiting consumer choice and price stability.

Market Lens

Immediate reaction: SEK/USD dipped 0.15% post-release, reflecting tempered optimism. Swedish equities (OMXS30) and bond yields remained steady, indicating balanced risk sentiment.

Looking forward, Sweden’s consumer confidence faces a mixed outlook shaped by several key factors:

Bullish Scenario (30% Probability)

• Inflation moderates faster than expected, easing real income pressures.
• Riksbank signals a pause or slowdown in rate hikes, improving credit conditions.
• Fiscal stimulus expands, boosting disposable incomes and consumer spending.

Base Scenario (50% Probability)

• Inflation remains elevated but stable, with gradual real wage gains.
• Monetary policy continues tightening cautiously, maintaining financial conditions.
• Geopolitical risks persist but do not escalate significantly.

Bearish Scenario (20% Probability)

• Inflation spikes anew due to energy price shocks or supply disruptions.
• Riksbank accelerates rate hikes, sharply tightening credit.
• Geopolitical tensions escalate, undermining consumer and business confidence.

Overall, the base case suggests consumer confidence will hover near current levels in the near term, with upside risks tied to inflation relief and downside risks from financial tightening and external shocks.

Sweden’s November 2025 Consumer Confidence reading of 95.80 reflects a cautious but resilient household sector. While the figure missed expectations and edged down from October, it remains above the yearly average, signaling underlying strength amid ongoing macroeconomic challenges.

Monetary tightening and inflation remain key headwinds, but fiscal support and structural economic fundamentals provide buffers. Market reactions were muted, indicating that investors are digesting the data within a broader context of global uncertainty and domestic policy shifts.

Going forward, close monitoring of inflation trends, Riksbank policy signals, and geopolitical developments will be essential to gauge the trajectory of consumer sentiment and its implications for Sweden’s economic growth.

Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence is a vital indicator for markets sensitive to domestic demand and economic momentum. The following assets historically correlate with Sweden’s consumer sentiment and are likely to respond to shifts in confidence readings:

• OMXS30 – Sweden’s benchmark equity index, closely tied to domestic economic health and consumer spending.
• SEKUSD – The Swedish krona versus US dollar, sensitive to monetary policy and economic outlook.
• EURSEK – Euro to Swedish krona pair, reflecting cross-border trade and investment flows.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, as a risk sentiment proxy, often reacts to shifts in consumer confidence indirectly.
• ERIC-B – Ericsson’s stock, a bellwether for Sweden’s tech sector and consumer electronics demand.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Sweden’s Consumer Confidence for November 2025?

Sweden’s Consumer Confidence for November 2025 was 95.80, slightly down from October’s 96.10 and below the estimate of 97.50.

How does consumer confidence affect Sweden’s economy?

Consumer confidence influences household spending, which accounts for about half of Sweden’s GDP, impacting growth and inflation dynamics.

What are the main risks to consumer confidence in Sweden?

Key risks include persistent inflation, monetary tightening, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions.

Final Takeaway: Sweden’s consumer confidence remains cautiously optimistic but faces headwinds from inflation and tighter financial conditions. Monitoring upcoming inflation data and Riksbank policy moves will be critical for anticipating shifts in household sentiment and economic momentum.

Updated 12/19/25

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.