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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden Consumer Inflation Expectation fell to 5.7% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Sweden Consumer Inflation Expectation fell to 5.7% in July 2026, down 0.1% from June's 5.8% reading. The print exceeded the 5.4% consensus by 0.3%. Consumer Inflation Expectation has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Inflation Expectation averaged 5.85%, vs 6.87% in the prior 3-month window. Consumer Inflation Expectation is now the lowest in 17 months.
Latest Release
5.7
Actual
5.4
Consensus
5.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.57 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 5.2
Actual: 5.7
Error: -0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/SEK | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/SEK | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Inflation Expectation (Sweden) was reported at 5.7% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.4% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.65%, ranging from 5.7% to 7.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.8%, down from the prior three at 6.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.63%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.7%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/SEK, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.57%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CPI YoY (Aug 6) and CPI MoM (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Consumer Inflation Expectation - SE
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About Consumer Inflation Expectation — Sweden
DEFINITION
Consumer Inflation Expectation is a financial indicator that measures the anticipated rate of inflation among consumers. It reflects the level of confidence or concern that consumers have about the future purchasing power of their money. This indicator is important for businesses and policymakers as it can impact consumer spending and economic growth. A higher consumer inflation expectation may lead to increased prices and reduced consumer spending, while a lower expectation may result in lower prices and increased consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 5.7 %, consensus 5.4 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 5.8 %. Before that (May 2026): 5.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.68) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - SE Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | SE | Swedbank Manufacturing PMI | 58.3 | 57 | 57.85 | Low | |