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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden CPIF YoY fell to 1.3% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Sweden CPIF YoY fell to 1.3% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.2% from May's 1.5% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.55%. Over the past 3 months, CPIF YoY averaged 1.18%, vs 1.77% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 8th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
1.3
Consensus
1.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.01 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.34
Actual: 1.3
Error: +0.04
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPIF YoY (Sweden) was reported at 1.3% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1.3% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.26%, ranging from 0.8% to 3.3% across 21 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.37%, up from the prior three at 1.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.75%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.54%). In July readings over the past 3 years, CPIF YoY has averaged 1.92%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with DAX (Bearish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.01%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CPI YoY (Aug 6) and CPI MoM (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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CPIF YoY - SE
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About CPIF YoY — Sweden
DEFINITION
CPIF YoY stands for Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy, year-over-year. It is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, over a 12-month period. This indicator is used by economists and policymakers to track inflation and assess the overall health of the economy. A higher CPIF YoY indicates an increase in consumer prices, while a lower CPIF YoY suggests a decrease in prices.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1.3 %, consensus 1.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 1.3 %. Before that (May 2026): 1.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bearish DAX, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - SE Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | SE | Swedbank Manufacturing PMI | 58.3 | 57 | 57.85 | Low | |