The December 2025 Current Account for Sweden posted a surplus of 93.20 billion SEK, beating the consensus estimate of 66.00 billion SEK and improving from 84.50 billion SEK in September. This figure reflects a resilient external sector despite global headwinds. The 12-month average stands at 108.30 billion SEK, indicating some moderation in surplus strength compared to earlier in 2025.

Drivers this month

• Stronger export performance in machinery and vehicles contributed 12.50 billion SEK.
• Energy imports rose, subtracting -5.30 billion SEK from the balance.
• Services surplus expanded by 3.70 billion SEK, driven by IT and financial services.

Policy pulse

Monetary policy remains restrictive with the Riksbank maintaining a 3.75% policy rate to curb inflation. This supports the SEK and dampens import price pressures, indirectly aiding the current account. Fiscal policy tightening has reduced government deficits, limiting domestic demand spillovers into imports.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: SEK/USD strengthened 0.30% in the first hour post-release, reflecting market confidence in Sweden’s external resilience. Short-term bond yields edged up by 5 basis points, signaling modest risk repricing.

Sweden’s current account surplus of 93.20 billion SEK in December 2025 reflects core macroeconomic fundamentals. GDP growth remains steady at 1.80% YoY, while inflation has moderated to 2.40%, close to the Riksbank’s 2% target. Unemployment holds at 6.10%, supporting stable consumption and export capacity.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Riksbank’s hawkish stance has kept real interest rates positive, strengthening the krona and improving trade terms. Credit growth has slowed to 3.20% YoY, reflecting tighter lending standards. These conditions help contain import demand and support the current account surplus.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Sweden’s government budget deficit narrowed to 0.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, down from 1.30% a year earlier. Reduced fiscal stimulus and prudent spending have lowered domestic demand pressures, indirectly benefiting the external balance by curbing import growth.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions have increased energy import costs, negatively impacting the current account. However, Sweden’s diversified export base and strong trade ties with the EU mitigate these shocks.

Drivers this month

• Export volumes of machinery and vehicles rose 4.20% MoM, boosting goods surplus.
• Energy import costs increased 6.10% MoM, weighing on the overall balance.
• Services exports grew 2.80% MoM, led by IT and financial sectors.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: SEK/USD appreciated 0.30%, reflecting confidence in Sweden’s external position. The 2-year government bond yield rose 5 basis points, indicating modest tightening in financial conditions post-release.

Looking ahead, Sweden’s current account is poised for moderate improvement but faces mixed risks. The baseline scenario (60% probability) projects a gradual rise to 100 billion SEK surplus by mid-2026, supported by stable exports and contained import growth.

Bullish scenario

• Global demand rebounds sharply, lifting exports by 6% YoY.
• Energy prices decline, reducing import costs by 10%.
• Fiscal stimulus supports domestic production and export capacity.

Probability: 20%

Bearish scenario

• Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade routes.
• Energy prices spike further, increasing import deficits.
• Riksbank tightens monetary policy aggressively, slowing growth.

Probability: 20%

Policy pulse

The Riksbank’s cautious approach will be critical. Any premature easing risks inflation resurgence and currency depreciation, while overtightening could dampen exports. Fiscal policy flexibility remains limited amid EU budget rules.

Sweden’s current account surplus remains a pillar of macro stability amid global uncertainty. The December 2025 print at 93.20 billion SEK signals resilience but also highlights vulnerabilities from energy costs and geopolitical risks. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support to sustain external strength.

Financial Markets & Sentiment

Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. The krona’s recent appreciation and stable bond yields reflect confidence in Sweden’s macro fundamentals. However, volatility in energy markets and geopolitical flashpoints could trigger short-term swings.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Sweden’s export diversification, innovation-driven sectors, and prudent fiscal management underpin long-term current account sustainability. Demographic shifts and green transition investments will shape future external balances.

Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account

The current account surplus is a key indicator for currency strength, bond yields, and equity sectors tied to trade. Markets closely track this data to gauge Sweden’s external health and growth prospects.

• SEKUSD – The krona’s exchange rate is highly sensitive to current account shifts, reflecting trade balance and capital flows.
• ERIC-B.ST – Ericsson’s export-driven revenues correlate with Sweden’s external sector performance.
• SAAB-B.ST – Defense exports contribute significantly to Sweden’s goods surplus.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s role as a risk asset means it often reacts to macroeconomic shifts impacting risk sentiment.
• EURSEK – The euro/krona pair reflects Sweden’s trade relations with the EU, its largest trading partner.

Extras: Current Account vs. SEKUSD Since 2020

Since 2020, Sweden’s current account surplus and SEKUSD exchange rate have shown a positive correlation. Periods of rising surpluses often coincide with krona appreciation against the dollar. For example, the surplus peak in mid-2024 aligned with SEKUSD strengthening by 8%. This relationship underscores the current account’s role as a barometer for currency valuation and external competitiveness.

FAQs

What is the significance of Sweden’s current account surplus?

The current account surplus indicates Sweden exports more goods, services, and capital than it imports, supporting currency strength and economic stability.

How does the current account affect monetary policy in Sweden?

A strong current account can ease inflation pressures by supporting the krona, allowing the Riksbank to maintain or adjust interest rates accordingly.

What risks could impact Sweden’s current account going forward?

Geopolitical tensions, rising energy prices, and global demand shocks pose downside risks to Sweden’s current account balance.

Takeaway: Sweden’s December 2025 current account surplus of 93.20 billion SEK signals external resilience amid global uncertainty, but rising energy costs and geopolitical risks warrant close monitoring.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 12/4/25