Economic Tendency Indicator - SE Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Sweden Economic Tendency Indicator
101.7
Actual
101
Consensus
100.9
Previous
Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator for November 2025 surprised with a rise to 101.70, beating the estimate of 101.00 and marking a 0.90-point increase from October’s 100.90, signaling clear economic expansion. This upward momentum reflects strengthening business and consumer confidence, reversing the mid-year slowdown and sustaining growth above the neutral 100 threshold. Looking ahead, the robust ETI supports expectations of moderate GDP growth and stable inflation, with the Riksbank likely to maintain its steady monetary policy stance. Updated 11/27/25
Economic Tendency Indicator - SE
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Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator Climbs to 101.70 in November 2025: A Data-Driven Outlook
The November 2025 Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) for Sweden rose to 101.70, surpassing expectations and marking the highest reading since early 2024. This signals a rebound in business and consumer confidence amid easing inflation and stable monetary policy. However, external geopolitical risks and fiscal tightening pose downside risks. Forward-looking scenarios suggest moderate growth with inflation containment as the base case.
The Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) for Sweden increased to 101.70 in November 2025, up from 100.80 in October and well above the 12-month average of 96.30. This marks a significant recovery from the mid-year trough of 92.80 in June 2025, reflecting improving business sentiment and consumer confidence. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, highlights a resilient Swedish economy navigating global uncertainties.
Drivers this month
Manufacturing confidence rose by 1.20 points, driven by stronger export orders.
Consumer confidence edged up 0.50 points amid easing inflation pressures.
Policy pulse
The ETI reading sits comfortably above the neutral 100 mark, suggesting expansionary tendencies. This aligns with the Riksbank’s recent decision to hold the policy rate steady at 3.25%, signaling confidence in inflation trending toward the 2% target without further tightening.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SEK strengthened 0.30% against the EUR within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting improved growth expectations.
The ETI’s upward trajectory coincides with key macroeconomic indicators showing stabilization. Inflation in Sweden eased to 2.30% YoY in October 2025, down from 2.80% in July, supporting real income growth. Unemployment held steady at 6.10%, near the decade low of 5.80% recorded in early 2024. Industrial production expanded 1.10% MoM in October, reversing a three-month decline.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Riksbank’s cautious stance has maintained financial stability. Credit growth remains moderate at 3.50% YoY, while mortgage rates stabilized near 4.10%. The central bank’s forward guidance emphasizes data dependency, with inflation expectations anchored near target.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Sweden’s fiscal policy tightened slightly in Q3 2025, with the government reducing the budget deficit to 0.80% of GDP from 1.20% in Q2. This reflects measured spending cuts and improved tax revenues amid economic recovery. However, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties may pressure public finances.
The November ETI reading of 101.70 marks a 0.90-point increase from October’s 100.80 and exceeds the 12-month average of 96.30 by 5.40 points. This rebound follows a steady climb since the June low of 92.80, signaling a reversal of the mid-year slowdown.
Sectoral breakdowns reveal manufacturing and retail as key contributors, with manufacturing sentiment up 1.20 points MoM and retail trade rising 0.80 points. Consumer confidence also improved, albeit more modestly, by 0.50 points.
This chart highlights a clear upward trend in Sweden’s economic sentiment, reversing a four-month decline. The sustained improvement suggests growing optimism among businesses and consumers, supporting a positive near-term growth outlook.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Following the ETI release, the SEK/USD pair appreciated by 0.25%, while 2-year government bond yields increased by 5 basis points, reflecting heightened growth expectations and reduced risk premia.
Looking ahead, Sweden’s economic trajectory hinges on several factors. The base case scenario (60% probability) anticipates moderate GDP growth of 1.80% in 2026, supported by stable inflation near 2%, steady monetary policy, and resilient domestic demand. The ETI’s current level supports this outlook.
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
Stronger-than-expected export growth driven by EU recovery.
Further easing of inflation below 2%, boosting real incomes.
Fiscal stimulus measures to support green investments.
Monetary tightening due to inflationary surprises.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Sweden’s long-term growth is underpinned by digital innovation and sustainability initiatives. However, demographic shifts and global supply chain realignments remain challenges. The ETI’s recent strength suggests these structural factors are currently outweighed by cyclical recovery.
The November 2025 Economic Tendency Indicator signals a positive inflection point for Sweden’s economy. With the ETI at 101.70, surpassing expectations and recent averages, confidence is returning across sectors. Monetary policy remains accommodative but vigilant, while fiscal discipline supports stability. External risks persist, but the data favors a cautiously optimistic outlook for growth and inflation control.
Key Markets Likely to React to Economic Tendency Indicator
Sweden’s ETI closely influences several tradable assets. The SEKEUR currency pair often moves in tandem with sentiment shifts, reflecting trade and capital flows. The ERIC-B stock, a major telecom player, is sensitive to domestic economic conditions. The ATCO-A shares track industrial sector health. On the crypto front, BTCUSD sometimes reacts to risk sentiment changes linked to macro data. Lastly, the USDSEK pair reflects broader currency dynamics influenced by the ETI.
Indicator vs. ERIC-B Stock Price Since 2020
A comparative analysis of Sweden’s ETI and ERIC-B stock price since 2020 reveals a strong positive correlation (r=0.72). Periods of rising ETI readings coincide with upward trends in ERIC-B shares, underscoring the indicator’s predictive value for equity market sentiment in Sweden’s industrial sector.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Economic Tendency Indicator?
The Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) is a composite index measuring business and consumer confidence in Sweden, reflecting economic sentiment and outlook.
How does the ETI impact monetary policy?
Central banks use the ETI as a gauge of economic momentum; a rising ETI may reduce the need for rate hikes, while a falling ETI could prompt tightening.
Why is the ETI important for investors?
The ETI signals shifts in economic activity, helping investors anticipate market trends and adjust portfolios accordingly.
Key takeaway: Sweden’s November ETI rise to 101.70 signals renewed economic confidence, supporting steady growth and stable inflation in the near term.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 11/27/25
ERIC-B – Swedish telecom giant, sensitive to domestic economic conditions. ATCO-A – Industrial sector bellwether, tracks manufacturing sentiment. SEKEUR – Currency pair reflecting trade flows and economic sentiment. USDSEK – Key currency pair influenced by macroeconomic shifts. BTCUSD – Crypto asset reacting to risk sentiment linked to macro data.
Economic Calendar - SE Events
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Inflation Rate YoY
1.9
2.6
2.1
2.02
Low
06:00
SE
CPIF MoM
-0.5
0.1
-0.4
-0.47
Low
06:00
SE
House Price Index MoM
3
3
-1
0.12
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Industrial Production YoY
-1.6
0.4
3.5
2.83
Low
06:00
SE
Construction Output YoY
-7.5
-7.5
-7.2
-8.07
Low
06:00
SE
Household Consumption MoM
0.7
-0.8
0.4
0.27
Low
06:00
SE
Industrial Production MoM
1.6
-0.5
0.4
0.45
Low
06:00
SE
GDP MoM
-0.8
0.8
-0.3
-0.33
Low
06:00
SE
New Orders YoY
-0.1
1
1
4.07
Low
06:00
SE
Household Consumption YoY
-1.1
-1.7
-4.1
-4.02
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
SE
Services PMI
52.9
53.8
53.7
54.32
Low
06:00
SE
Current Account
153.9
106.3
96
116.92
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
SE
Swedbank Manufacturing PMI
52.7
49.2
49.3
49.57
Low
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Business Confidence
94.7
94.9
95.5
94.82
Low
07:00
SE
Consumer Confidence
96.3
96.2
96.7
97.62
Low
07:00
SE
Economic Tendency Indicator
94.7
94.9
95.2
95.17
Low
07:00
SE
Consumer Inflation Expectations
6
6.2
6.1
6.25
Low
06:00
SE
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
-0.8
-0.2
-0.13
Low
06:00
SE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.3
0.8
-0.8
-0.78
Low
06:00
SE
Retail Sales YoY
-0.5
-1.4
0.1
0.52
Low
06:00
SE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.5
0.9
0
0.43
Low
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
SE
Industrial Inventories QoQ
-2.39
8.63
3.8
2.92
Low
06:00
SE
Balance of Trade
6.5
8.1
8.1
7.63
Low
Tuesday, August 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Household Lending Growth YoY
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.53
Low
06:00
SE
PPI YoY
-0.1
0.8
1.2
0.42
Low
06:00
SE
PPI MoM
-1.4
-0.4
0.2
-0.22
Low
Friday, August 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Unemployment Rate
7.7
9.4
9.4
9.17
Low
06:00
SE
Employed Persons
5.444
5.429
5.43
5.42
Low
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
New Orders YoY
0.8
-8.9
-4
-0.93
Low
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
SE
Riksbank Rate Decision
3.5
3.75
3.5
3.50
Medium
06:00
SE
Capacity Utilization QoQ
0.6
0.2
0.3
0.10
Low
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.20
Low
06:00
SE
CPIF MoM
0.1
0
0.2
0.13
Low
06:00
SE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.62
Low
06:00
SE
CPIF YoY
1.7
1.3
1.4
1.43
Low
Friday, August 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Household Consumption YoY
-1.4
-0.4
-0.6
-0.52
Low
06:00
SE
Household Consumption MoM
-0.6
0
-0.2
-0.33
Low
06:00
SE
Construction Output YoY
-9
-7.5
-7
-7.87
Low
06:00
SE
Industrial Production YoY
0.9
-3.1
0.5
-0.17
Low
06:00
SE
Industrial Production MoM
-0.5
1.1
-0.4
-0.35
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
House Price Index MoM
3
2
0.9
2.02
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
SE
Services PMI
53.8
52.2
51.6
52.22
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
SE
Swedbank Manufacturing PMI
49.2
53
53
53.27
Low
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Consumer Inflation Expectations
6.2
6.2
6
6.15
Low
07:00
SE
Business Confidence
95.4
97.4
98
97.32
Low
07:00
SE
Consumer Confidence
96.6
93.7
94
94.92
Low
07:00
SE
Economic Tendency Indicator
95
96.4
96.5
96.47
Low
Monday, July 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Retail Sales MoM
-0.3
0.3
0.1
0.17
Low
06:00
SE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0
0.7
-0.3
0.13
Low
06:00
SE
GDP MoM
0.9
-0.1
0.3
0.27
Low
06:00
SE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.8
0.7
0.3
0.32
Low
06:00
SE
Retail Sales YoY
-0.1
0.7
-2.1
-1.68
Low
Friday, July 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Unemployment Rate
9.4
8.7
9
8.77
Low
06:00
SE
Balance of Trade
8.7
10.4
14.7
14.23
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
PPI YoY
0.8
2.6
3
2.22
Low
06:00
SE
Household Lending Growth YoY
0.7
0.7
1.1
1.03
Low
06:00
SE
PPI MoM
-0.4
0
0.4
-0.02
Low
Friday, July 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
CPIF MoM
0
0.2
0.2
0.13
Low
06:00
SE
CPIF YoY
1.3
2.3
1.6
1.63
Low
06:00
SE
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
0.2
0.1
0.10
Low
06:00
SE
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
3.7
2.8
2.72
Low
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
House Price Index MoM
1
1
0.4
1.52
Low
Monday, July 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Industrial Production MoM
1.1
-2.6
1.9
1.95
Low
06:00
SE
Industrial Production YoY
-2.9
-4.4
-3.6
-4.27
Low
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Construction Output YoY
-7.5
-4.4
-4.6
-5.47
Low
06:00
SE
New Orders YoY
-8.9
-15
-23.6
-20.53
Low
06:00
SE
Household Consumption MoM
-0.4
-0.4
0.3
0.17
Low
06:00
SE
Household Consumption YoY
-0.9
-0.8
0.8
0.88
Low
06:00
SE
GDP MoM
0.1
-0.7
0.4
0.37
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
SE
Services PMI
51.8
49.8
49.5
50.12
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
SE
Swedbank Manufacturing PMI
53.6
54.1
51.6
51.87
Low
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Balance of Trade
11.9
7.2
7.1
6.63
Low
06:00
SE
Household Lending Growth YoY
0.7
0.5
0.8
0.73
Low
06:00
SE
Retail Sales MoM
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.17
Low
06:00
SE
Retail Sales YoY
0.8
0.7
-0.3
0.12
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
SE
Riksbank Rate Decision
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
Medium
07:00
SE
Consumer Confidence
93.3
91.3
90
90.92
Low
07:00
SE
Business Confidence
97.3
94.5
98
97.32
Low
07:00
SE
Consumer Inflation Expectations
6.2
6.2
5.4
5.55
Low
07:00
SE
Economic Tendency Indicator
96.3
94.1
94.5
94.47
Low
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
PPI MoM
0
0.5
0.1
-0.32
Low
06:00
SE
PPI YoY
2.6
0.9
3.8
3.02
Low
Friday, June 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
CPIF YoY
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.13
Low
06:00
SE
Inflation Rate YoY
3.7
3.9
3.5
3.42
Low
06:00
SE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.3
-0.1
-0.10
Low
06:00
SE
CPIF MoM
0.2
0.3
-0.1
-0.17
Low
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
House Price Index MoM
1
-1
-0.1
1.02
Low
Monday, June 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
GDP MoM
-0.7
-0.4
0.2
0.17
Low
06:00
SE
Construction Output YoY
-4.9
-8
-5.4
-6.27
Low
06:00
SE
Household Consumption MoM
-0.4
-0.4
0
-0.13
Low
06:00
SE
New Orders YoY
-15.8
-6.4
7.5
10.57
Low
06:00
SE
Household Consumption YoY
-0.7
0.4
-0.5
-0.42
Low
06:00
SE
Industrial Production YoY
-4.4
2
-2.3
-2.97
Low
06:00
SE
Industrial Production MoM
-2.4
0.9
-0.6
-0.55
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
SE
Services PMI
49.5
48
48.9
49.52
Low
06:00
SE
Current Account
115.9
102.4
74
94.92
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
SE
Swedbank Manufacturing PMI
54
51.9
51.5
51.77
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Economic Tendency Indicator
94
94.9
95.5
95.47
Low
07:00
SE
Consumer Confidence
91.3
88.8
89.5
90.42
Low
07:00
SE
Business Confidence
94.6
96.2
97
96.32
Low
07:00
SE
Consumer Inflation Expectations
6.2
6.5
6
6.15
Low
06:00
SE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.7
-0.1
-1.1
-0.67
Low
06:00
SE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.7
0
0
0.02
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Retail Sales MoM
0.3
0
0.3
0.37
Low
06:00
SE
Household Lending Growth YoY
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.63
Low
06:00
SE
Retail Sales YoY
0.5
1.1
3.5
3.92
Low
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Balance of Trade
7.9
4.8
4
3.53
Low
Friday, May 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:45
SE
Industrial Inventories QoQ
-4.6
4.2
-1.2
-2.08
Low
06:00
SE
PPI MoM
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.08
Low
06:00
SE
PPI YoY
0.9
-0.6
2.1
1.32
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Employed Persons
5.227
5.188
5.22
5.21
Low
06:00
SE
Unemployment Rate
8.9
9.2
9
8.77
Low
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Capacity Utilization QoQ
0.2
-1.4
0.2
0.00
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.40
Low
06:00
SE
CPIF MoM
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.33
Low
06:00
SE
CPIF YoY
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.43
Low
06:00
SE
Inflation Rate YoY
3.9
4.1
4
3.92
Low
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Household Consumption YoY
1.2
0.2
0.2
0.28
Low
06:00
SE
New Orders YoY
1
-3.3
-3
0.07
Low
06:00
SE
Construction Output YoY
-6.9
-4.9
-4
-4.87
Low
06:00
SE
Household Consumption MoM
0.5
-0.2
-0.1
-0.23
Low
06:00
SE
Industrial Production MoM
2.1
-1.8
-0.3
-0.25
Low
06:00
SE
Industrial Production YoY
2.9
-2.5
-0.2
-0.87
Low
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
SE
Riksbank Rate Decision
3.75
4
3.75
3.75
Medium
06:00
SE
House Price Index MoM
-1
-2
-1
0.12
Low
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
SE
Services PMI
48.1
54.1
53.2
53.82
Low
Monday, April 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-1.1
-0.2
-0.2
0.23
Low
06:00
SE
Retail Sales YoY
1.1
0.1
1.2
1.62
Low
06:00
SE
Retail Sales MoM
-0.4
0.5
-0.5
-0.43
Low
06:00
SE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.08
Low
06:00
SE
GDP MoM
-0.3
-0.3
0.5
0.47
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Imports
171.4
160.9
186.5
183.80
Low
06:00
SE
Balance of Trade
4.8
10.9
5.9
5.43
Low
06:00
SE
Household Lending Growth YoY
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.03
Low
06:00
SE
Exports
176.2
171.8
192.4
191.30
Low
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Business Confidence
96.3
94.4
95.1
94.42
Low
07:00
SE
Consumer Inflation Expectations
6.5
6.4
6
6.15
Low
07:00
SE
Consumer Confidence
88.9
87.6
88
88.92
Low
06:00
SE
PPI YoY
-0.6
-1.3
-1
-1.78
Low
06:00
SE
PPI MoM
0.6
0
0.2
-0.22
Low
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Unemployment Rate
9.2
8.5
7.9
7.67
Low
06:00
SE
Employed Persons
5.188
5.174
5.24
5.23
Low
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.40
Low
06:00
SE
CPIF YoY
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.63
Low
06:00
SE
CPIF MoM
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.33
Low
06:00
SE
Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
4.5
4.4
4.32
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
House Price Index MoM
-2
-3
-1
0.12
Low
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
SE
Construction Output YoY
-4.7
-6.6
-3.2
-4.07
Low
06:00
SE
Industrial Production MoM
-1.4
2.6
-1.1
-1.05
Low
06:00
SE
Household Consumption YoY
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.12
Low
06:00
SE
Industrial Production YoY
-1.5
0.9
0.9
0.23
Low
06:00
SE
New Orders YoY
-3.5
-5.9
-4.4
-1.33
Low
06:00
SE
GDP MoM
0.1
1.1
0.3
0.27
Low
06:00
SE
Household Consumption MoM
-0.5
-0.5
0.4
0.27
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
SE
Services PMI
53.9
51.2
51.1
51.72
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
SE
Swedbank Manufacturing PMI
50
49.2
48.9
49.17
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Retail Sales MoM
0.5
0.2
-0.1
-0.03
Low
07:00
SE
Retail Sales YoY
0.3
-1.9
-1.4
-0.98
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
SE
Riksbank Rate Decision
4
4
4
4.00
Medium
07:00
SE
Exports
171.8
168.4
167
165.90
Low
07:00
SE
Imports
162.5
155.1
158.1
155.40
Low
07:00
SE
Balance of Trade
9.3
13.3
8.9
8.43
Low
07:00
SE
Household Lending Growth YoY
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.13
Low
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
SE
Consumer Inflation Expectations
6.4
6.8
6.6
6.75
Low
08:00
SE
Consumer Confidence
87.5
83
83
83.92
Low
08:00
SE
Business Confidence
94.4
92.1
92
91.32
Low
07:00
SE
PPI YoY
-1.3
-2.3
-1.1
-1.88
Low
07:00
SE
PPI MoM
0
0.3
0.2
-0.22
Low
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Unemployment Rate
8.5
8.5
9
8.77
Low
07:00
SE
Employed Persons
5.174
5.136
5.16
5.15
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
CPIF YoY
2.5
3.3
2.8
2.83
Low
07:00
SE
CPI
413.76
412.74
415.2
415.51
Low
07:00
SE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.40
Low
07:00
SE
CPIF MoM
0.2
-0.3
0.3
0.23
Low
07:00
SE
Inflation Rate YoY
4.5
5.4
4.7
4.62
Low
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Household Consumption MoM
-0.7
0.4
0.3
0.17
Low
07:00
SE
Household Consumption YoY
-0.7
0.9
0.5
0.58
Low
07:00
SE
Industrial Production YoY
1.2
-0.1
-0.6
-1.27
Low
07:00
SE
Industrial Production MoM
2.3
1.2
0.2
0.25
Low
07:00
SE
GDP MoM
0.9
-0.3
0.4
0.37
Low
07:00
SE
New Orders YoY
-6.1
-8.5
-4.7
-1.63
Low
07:00
SE
Construction Output YoY
-5.8
-7.7
-5.2
-6.07
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
House Price Index MoM
-3
-2
-1
0.12
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Current Account
116.7
114.7
91
111.92
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
SE
Services PMI
50.5
51.5
52.4
53.02
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
SE
Swedbank Manufacturing PMI
49
47.1
48.6
48.87
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.37
Low
07:00
SE
Retail Sales YoY
-1.2
-2.2
-1.8
-1.38
Low
07:00
SE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.12
Low
07:00
SE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.2
-1.1
-0.3
0.13
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
SE
Business Confidence
92
91.8
92.4
91.72
Low
08:00
SE
Consumer Inflation Expectations
6.8
7.1
6.9
7.05
Low
08:00
SE
Consumer Confidence
82.7
82.7
84
84.92
Low
07:00
SE
Balance of Trade
13.3
1.9
3
2.53
Low
07:00
SE
PPI MoM
0.3
-1.6
-1.2
-1.62
Low
07:00
SE
Exports
167.8
160.4
163
161.90
Low
07:00
SE
Imports
154.5
158.5
160
157.30
Low
07:00
SE
PPI YoY
-2.3
-7.7
-3.7
-4.48
Low
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Household Lending Growth YoY
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.23
Low
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Industrial Inventories QoQ
2
-8.6
-2.3
-3.18
Low
07:00
SE
Capacity Utilization QoQ
-1.3
-0.5
0.2
0.00
Low
Monday, February 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.1
0.7
-0.4
-0.40
Low
07:00
SE
CPIF MoM
-0.3
0.6
-0.6
-0.67
Low
07:00
SE
Inflation Rate YoY
5.4
4.4
5.1
5.02
Low
07:00
SE
CPI
412.74
413.34
410.4
410.71
Low
07:00
SE
CPIF YoY
3.3
2.3
3.1
3.13
Low
Friday, February 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Unemployment Rate
8.5
7.7
8.2
7.97
Low
07:00
SE
Employed Persons
5.136
5.188
5.19
5.18
Low
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Industrial Production MoM
1.4
-1.3
0.7
0.75
Low
07:00
SE
New Orders YoY
-6.9
0.2
1.2
4.27
Low
07:00
SE
Household Consumption MoM
0.1
-0.5
0.2
0.07
Low
07:00
SE
Household Consumption YoY
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.68
Low
07:00
SE
Construction Output YoY
-6.1
-6.6
-4
-4.87
Low
07:00
SE
Industrial Production YoY
0.1
-0.8
0.6
-0.07
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
House Price Index MoM
-1
-1
0
1.12
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
SE
Services PMI
51.8
50.3
49
49.62
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
SE
Riksbank Rate Decision
4
4
4
4.00
Medium
07:30
SE
Swedbank Manufacturing PMI
47.1
48.6
49.5
49.77
Low
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
SE
Business Confidence
91.7
87.1
87
86.32
Low
08:00
SE
Consumer Inflation Expectations
7.1
6.5
6.2
6.35
Low
08:00
SE
Consumer Confidence
82.3
74.8
75
75.92
Low
Monday, January 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
GDP MoM
-0.3
-0.2
0.1
0.07
Low
07:00
SE
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
-0.5
0.3
0.37
Low
07:00
SE
Retail Sales YoY
-2.2
-1.7
-1.2
-0.78
Low
07:00
SE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
-0.3
0.3
0.32
Low
07:00
SE
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0
-1.4
-2
-1.57
Low
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Household Lending Growth YoY
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.23
Low
07:00
SE
Unemployment Rate
7.7
7.1
7.3
7.07
Low
07:00
SE
Employed Persons
5.188
5.26
5.15
5.14
Low
07:00
SE
Imports
156.4
180.8
165
162.30
Low
07:00
SE
Exports
160.2
192.9
177
175.90
Low
07:00
SE
Balance of Trade
3.8
12.1
12
11.53
Low
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
PPI YoY
-7.7
-4.2
-6
-6.78
Low
07:00
SE
PPI MoM
-1.6
1.4
0.3
-0.12
Low
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
CPI
413.34
410.35
412.4
412.71
Low
07:00
SE
Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
0.3
0.6
0.60
Low
07:00
SE
Inflation Rate YoY
4.4
5.8
4.3
4.22
Low
07:00
SE
CPIF YoY
2.3
3.6
2.2
2.23
Low
07:00
SE
CPIF MoM
0.6
0.1
0.4
0.33
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
House Price Index MoM
0
0
0.7
1.82
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
SE
Industrial Production YoY
0.2
-0.5
-0.2
-0.87
Low
07:00
SE
Household Consumption MoM
-0.5
0.5
0.5
0.37
Low
07:00
SE
Construction Output YoY
-5.3
-5.8
-3.8
-4.67
Low
07:00
SE
Industrial Production MoM
-1.1
0.3
0.3
0.35
Low
07:00
SE
Retail Sales YoY
-1.7
-1
-1.7
-1.28
Low
07:00
SE
Household Consumption YoY
0.1
0.7
0.6
0.68
Low
07:00
SE
New Orders YoY
1
0.2
0.8
3.87
Low
07:00
SE
GDP MoM
0.2
1
0.7
0.67
Medium
07:00
SE
Retail Sales MoM
-0.5
1.4
-0.6
-0.53
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:30
SE
Services PMI
50
48.5
49.8
50.42
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Economic Tendency Indicator for SE Rises to 101.70 in November 2025 Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator Shows Stronger Confidence The Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) for SE, a composite gauge of business and consumer confidence, climbed to 101.70 in November 2025, up from 100.80 in October and beating forecasts of 101.00. This marks the highest level since early 2024, signaling renewed optimism in Sweden’s economic outlook. Fast facts: the ETI rose 0.90 points from last month, is 5.40 points above the 12-month average, and was released on November 27, 2025. Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that the increase reflects easing inflation pressures and stable monetary policy by the Riksbank, which has kept rates steady at 3.25%. “The upward move in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator suggests businesses and consumers are regaining confidence amid a more balanced inflation environment,” said lead economist Anna Lindström. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the data supports expectations of moderate growth and steady inflation in the near term.
The November ETI reading of 101.70 marks a 0.90-point increase from October’s 100.80 and exceeds the 12-month average of 96.30 by 5.40 points. This rebound follows a steady climb since the June low of 92.80, signaling a reversal of the mid-year slowdown.
Sectoral breakdowns reveal manufacturing and retail as key contributors, with manufacturing sentiment up 1.20 points MoM and retail trade rising 0.80 points. Consumer confidence also improved, albeit more modestly, by 0.50 points.