The Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) for Sweden increased to 101.70 in November 2025, up from 100.80 in October and well above the 12-month average of 96.30. This marks a significant recovery from the mid-year trough of 92.80 in June 2025, reflecting improving business sentiment and consumer confidence. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, highlights a resilient Swedish economy navigating global uncertainties.

Drivers this month

• Manufacturing confidence rose by 1.20 points, driven by stronger export orders.
• Retail trade sentiment improved 0.80 points, reflecting robust domestic demand.
• Consumer confidence edged up 0.50 points amid easing inflation pressures.

Policy pulse

The ETI reading sits comfortably above the neutral 100 mark, suggesting expansionary tendencies. This aligns with the Riksbank’s recent decision to hold the policy rate steady at 3.25%, signaling confidence in inflation trending toward the 2% target without further tightening.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The SEK strengthened 0.30% against the EUR within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting improved growth expectations.

The ETI’s upward trajectory coincides with key macroeconomic indicators showing stabilization. Inflation in Sweden eased to 2.30% YoY in October 2025, down from 2.80% in July, supporting real income growth. Unemployment held steady at 6.10%, near the decade low of 5.80% recorded in early 2024. Industrial production expanded 1.10% MoM in October, reversing a three-month decline.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Riksbank’s cautious stance has maintained financial stability. Credit growth remains moderate at 3.50% YoY, while mortgage rates stabilized near 4.10%. The central bank’s forward guidance emphasizes data dependency, with inflation expectations anchored near target.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Sweden’s fiscal policy tightened slightly in Q3 2025, with the government reducing the budget deficit to 0.80% of GDP from 1.20% in Q2. This reflects measured spending cuts and improved tax revenues amid economic recovery. However, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties may pressure public finances.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Following the ETI release, the SEK/USD pair appreciated by 0.25%, while 2-year government bond yields increased by 5 basis points, reflecting heightened growth expectations and reduced risk premia.

Looking ahead, Sweden’s economic trajectory hinges on several factors. The base case scenario (60% probability) anticipates moderate GDP growth of 1.80% in 2026, supported by stable inflation near 2%, steady monetary policy, and resilient domestic demand. The ETI’s current level supports this outlook.

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Stronger-than-expected export growth driven by EU recovery.
• Further easing of inflation below 2%, boosting real incomes.
• Fiscal stimulus measures to support green investments.

Bearish scenario (15% probability)

• Renewed geopolitical tensions disrupting trade flows.
• Higher energy prices triggering inflation spikes.
• Monetary tightening due to inflationary surprises.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Sweden’s long-term growth is underpinned by digital innovation and sustainability initiatives. However, demographic shifts and global supply chain realignments remain challenges. The ETI’s recent strength suggests these structural factors are currently outweighed by cyclical recovery.

The November 2025 Economic Tendency Indicator signals a positive inflection point for Sweden’s economy. With the ETI at 101.70, surpassing expectations and recent averages, confidence is returning across sectors. Monetary policy remains accommodative but vigilant, while fiscal discipline supports stability. External risks persist, but the data favors a cautiously optimistic outlook for growth and inflation control.

Key Markets Likely to React to Economic Tendency Indicator

Sweden’s ETI closely influences several tradable assets. The SEKEUR currency pair often moves in tandem with sentiment shifts, reflecting trade and capital flows. The ERIC-B stock, a major telecom player, is sensitive to domestic economic conditions. The ATCO-A shares track industrial sector health. On the crypto front, BTCUSD sometimes reacts to risk sentiment changes linked to macro data. Lastly, the USDSEK pair reflects broader currency dynamics influenced by the ETI.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Economic Tendency Indicator?

The Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) is a composite index measuring business and consumer confidence in Sweden, reflecting economic sentiment and outlook.

How does the ETI impact monetary policy?

Central banks use the ETI as a gauge of economic momentum; a rising ETI may reduce the need for rate hikes, while a falling ETI could prompt tightening.

Why is the ETI important for investors?

The ETI signals shifts in economic activity, helping investors anticipate market trends and adjust portfolios accordingly.

Key takeaway: Sweden’s November ETI rise to 101.70 signals renewed economic confidence, supporting steady growth and stable inflation in the near term.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/27/25