The employed persons count in SE for November 2025 stood at 5.21 million, below the estimate of 5.23 million and down from October’s 5.24 million. This marks a 0.46% month-on-month (MoM) decline and a modest 0.48% increase year-over-year (YoY) from November 2024’s 5.19 million. The data suggests a cooling labor market after a summer peak of 5.44 million in August.

Drivers this month

• Seasonal adjustments and slower hiring in manufacturing and services sectors.
• Reduced labor participation in export-oriented industries amid global demand softening.
• Temporary layoffs in construction linked to supply chain delays.

Policy pulse

The employed persons figure remains consistent with the central bank’s cautious stance on inflation targeting. The slight dip supports a wait-and-see approach to further monetary tightening, as wage pressures appear contained.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: SEK/USD weakened 0.30% post-release, reflecting concerns over slowing employment growth. Short-term bond yields edged lower, signaling investor preference for safer assets amid uncertainty.

Employment trends are a cornerstone of macroeconomic health. The November reading of 5.21 million employed persons in SE is 0.46% below October but remains above the 12-month average of 5.22 million. This contrasts with the sharp rise seen in August (3.90% MoM), highlighting recent volatility.

Historical comparisons

• August 2025 peak at 5.44 million, the highest in 12 months.
• February 2025 trough at 5.11 million, reflecting winter seasonality.
• April 2025’s 5.24 million marked a temporary rebound post-winter.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

SE’s central bank has maintained a steady policy rate near 3.50%, balancing inflation containment with growth support. The employment dip aligns with a slight easing in financial conditions, as credit spreads narrowed and lending rates stabilized.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal stimulus remains moderate, with government spending focused on infrastructure and social programs. Budget deficits have narrowed slightly, supporting labor market resilience despite external headwinds.

Structural & long-run trends

Long-term trends show gradual labor force expansion driven by demographic shifts and increased female participation. However, automation and digitalization continue to reshape employment patterns, potentially capping growth in traditional sectors.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions in key trading partners have dampened export demand, indirectly affecting employment. Energy price volatility also weighs on industrial hiring decisions.

Looking ahead, employment in SE faces mixed prospects. The base case projects modest growth of 0.30% MoM over the next quarter, supported by stable domestic demand and fiscal support. However, downside risks from global slowdown and tighter financial conditions persist.

Scenario analysis

• Bullish (30% probability): Stronger-than-expected export recovery and easing supply constraints push employment above 5.30 million by Q1 2026.
• Base (50% probability): Employment growth remains flat to modest, hovering around 5.22–5.25 million amid balanced risks.
• Bearish (20% probability): Prolonged geopolitical tensions and tighter credit conditions cause employment to dip below 5.20 million.

Financial markets & sentiment

Market sentiment remains cautious. Equity indices linked to domestic consumption and industrial output have underperformed slightly. Currency volatility is expected to persist, influenced by labor market signals and central bank communications.

The November 2025 employed persons data for SE underscores a labor market in transition. While the slight MoM decline tempers optimism, the YoY growth and stable fiscal backdrop provide a foundation for resilience. Policymakers should monitor evolving external risks and structural shifts carefully to sustain employment gains.

Summary

• Employment at 5.21 million, below estimates but above 12-month average.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative but vigilant.
• Fiscal discipline supports labor market stability.
• Geopolitical and supply chain risks pose downside threats.
• Forward outlook balanced with cautious optimism.

Key Markets Likely to React to Employed Persons

The employed persons indicator is a critical gauge for labor market health and economic momentum. Markets sensitive to employment data include currency pairs, equity indices, and interest rate instruments. Below are five tradable symbols historically correlated with SE employment trends:

• OMXS30: SE’s benchmark stock index, sensitive to domestic economic conditions and labor market shifts.
• SEKUSD: The Swedish krona against the US dollar, reacts to employment data influencing monetary policy expectations.
• BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price often reflects broader risk sentiment, which can be affected by labor market strength.
• ERIC: Ericsson, a major Swedish tech stock, sensitive to employment trends in tech and manufacturing sectors.
• EURSEK: Euro to Swedish krona pair, influenced by cross-border economic dynamics and labor market data.

FAQs

What is the significance of the employed persons data for SE?

The employed persons data measures labor market strength, influencing economic growth and monetary policy decisions in SE.

How does employment data impact SE’s monetary policy?

Stronger employment can lead to tighter monetary policy to control inflation, while weaker data may prompt easing or a pause.

Why do financial markets react to employment figures?

Employment data signals economic health, affecting investor sentiment, currency values, and stock prices.

Key takeaway: SE’s employment data signals a cautiously resilient labor market, balancing growth prospects with external risks.