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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden Gross Domestic Product MoM fell to -0.2% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Sweden Gross Domestic Product MoM fell to -0.2% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 1.1% from May's 0.9% reading. The reading missed the 0.4% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.29%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product MoM averaged 0.7%, vs 0.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 36th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
0.4
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.63 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.55
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.99 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/SEK | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/SEK | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product MoM (Sweden) was reported at -0.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.4% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.09%, ranging from -1.1% to 1.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.4%, up from the prior three at -0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.69%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.73%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Gross Domestic Product MoM has averaged 0.25%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/SEK, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.63%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CPI YoY (Aug 6) and CPI MoM (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product MoM - SE
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About Gross Domestic Product MoM — Sweden
DEFINITION
Sweden's Gross Domestic Product MoM contracted by -0.200000% in June, missing the 0.400000% estimate and down from May's 0.900000%. This marks a clear reversal from expansion to contraction month-over-month. The unexpected decline pressures growth outlooks ahead of upcoming monetary policy decisions. Updated 7/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.99) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - SE Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | SE | Swedbank Manufacturing PMI | 58.3 | 57 | 57.85 | Low | |