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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden Gross Domestic Product MoM fell to -0.8% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Sweden Gross Domestic Product MoM fell to -0.8% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 0.6% from June's -0.2% reading. The reading missed the 0.1% consensus by 0.9%. Gross Domestic Product MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product MoM averaged 0.35%, vs 0.8% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 13th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.8
Actual
0.1
Consensus
-0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.67 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.1
Actual: -0.8
Error: +0.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.84 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/SEK | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product MoM (Sweden) was reported at -0.8% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.03%, ranging from -1.1% to 1.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.03%, up from the prior three at -0.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.74%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.68%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.68%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 24).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product MoM - SE
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About Gross Domestic Product MoM — Sweden
DEFINITION
Sweden's Gross Domestic Product MoM contracted by -0.800000% in August, missing the 0.100000% estimate and worsening from July's -0.200000%. August's decline marks a sharper economic slowdown compared to the prior month. Market focus will remain on upcoming data releases and the Riksbank's monetary policy stance amid this downturn. Updated 9/10/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.8 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.2 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.84) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - SE Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | SE | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | CPIF MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | CPIF YoY | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | Inflation Rate YoY | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | SE | Employed Persons | 5.507 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | SE | Unemployment Rate | 7.8 | 8.2 | 8.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | SE | Household Consumption MoM | 1.6 | -0.9 | -0.90 | Low | |
| 06:00 | SE | Household Consumption YoY | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |