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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden New Orders YoY fell to -0.5% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Sweden New Orders YoY fell to -0.5% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 30.0% from June's 29.5% reading. The reading missed the 22.0% consensus by 22.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 5.03%. Over the past 3 months, New Orders YoY averaged 15.6%, vs 0.0% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 28th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.5
Actual
22
Consensus
29.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.31 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 28.15
Actual: -0.5
Error: +28.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/SEK | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/SEK | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Orders YoY (Sweden) was reported at -0.5% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 22% by 22.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 29.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.39%, ranging from -3.9% to 29.9% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 10.23%, up from the prior three at 3.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.17%) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.9%). In September readings over the past 3 years, New Orders YoY has averaged -0.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/SEK (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/SEK, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.31%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 24).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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New Orders YoY - SE
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About New Orders YoY — Sweden
DEFINITION
New Orders YoY is a financial indicator that measures the change in the number of orders placed by customers in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides valuable insights into the demand for goods and services, and can help businesses and investors make informed decisions about future sales and revenue projections. This indicator is often used in conjunction with other economic data to assess the overall health of an economy and the performance of specific industries.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.5 %, consensus 22 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 29.9 %. Before that (May 2026): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/SEK (Bullish EUR, r=0.59) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - SE Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | SE | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | CPIF MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | CPIF YoY | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:00 | SE | Inflation Rate YoY | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | SE | Employed Persons | 5.507 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | SE | Unemployment Rate | 7.8 | 8.2 | 8.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | SE | Household Consumption MoM | 1.6 | -0.9 | -0.90 | Low | |
| 06:00 | SE | Household Consumption YoY | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |