Sweden’s Producer Price Index MoM: November 2025 Release and Macro Implications
The November 2025 Producer Price Index (PPI) for Sweden rose 0.40% MoM, beating the 0.30% estimate and reversing last month’s -0.70% decline. This marks a notable rebound after four months of negative or subdued prints. The PPI’s resurgence signals renewed upstream inflation pressures amid mixed macroeconomic signals, with implications for monetary policy, fiscal outlook, and financial markets. Key risks include external shocks and structural shifts in supply chains. Forward scenarios range from sustained inflationary momentum to renewed disinflationary pressures depending on global and domestic developments.
Table of Contents
The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) for Sweden increased by 0.40% month-over-month (MoM) in November 2025, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure exceeded the consensus estimate of 0.30% and reversed the prior month’s 0.70% decline. The PPI measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, serving as a leading indicator of consumer inflation trends.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices stabilized, contributing 0.15 percentage points (pp) to the PPI rise.
- Intermediate goods prices increased by 0.12 pp, reflecting supply chain normalization.
- Durable goods prices edged up 0.08 pp, supported by stronger domestic demand.
- Food and beverages remained flat, exerting neutral influence.
Policy pulse
The 0.40% MoM increase places the PPI above the Riksbank’s inflation target corridor, signaling potential upstream inflationary pressures. This may reinforce the central bank’s cautious stance on monetary tightening, especially given recent mixed inflation signals in consumer prices.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SEK/USD currency pair appreciated 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting market optimism on Sweden’s inflation resilience. Swedish 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, while breakeven inflation swaps edged higher by 3 bps, indicating increased inflation expectations.
The PPI’s November print contrasts sharply with recent months, marking a rebound from the -0.70% MoM decline in October and the -0.50% contraction in June. Historically, Sweden’s PPI has averaged around 0.30% MoM over the past 12 months, making this month’s 0.40% a modest but meaningful acceleration.
Historical comparisons
- February 2025 saw a peak PPI MoM increase of 1.70%, driven by post-pandemic supply disruptions.
- April 2025 recorded a sharp -3.00% MoM drop amid energy price corrections and weaker demand.
- August and September 2025 posted moderate gains of 1.10% and 0.50% respectively, reflecting partial recovery phases.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Riksbank’s current policy rate stands at 3.25%, with forward guidance emphasizing data dependency. The PPI rebound may increase pressure for a cautious rate hike or a pause in easing, as upstream inflation feeds into consumer prices. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with credit spreads stable and equity markets showing mixed sentiment.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Sweden’s fiscal stance remains moderately expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit target of 0.80% of GDP. Elevated producer prices could increase government revenue via VAT and corporate taxes but may also raise input costs for public projects. The government’s commitment to green investments may mitigate some inflationary pressures through efficiency gains.
Comparing the current print with the volatile swings earlier this year, the PPI’s stabilization signals a potential inflection point. The sharp declines in April (-3.00%) and May (-1.60%) were driven by external shocks and energy price volatility, which have since moderated.
This chart reveals a trend reversal from a four-month decline to a moderate upward trajectory in producer prices. The data suggest that inflationary pressures may be building again, warranting close monitoring for spillover effects into consumer inflation and wage negotiations.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Swedish krona (SEK) strengthened against the euro and dollar, with SEK/USD rising 0.30%. Swedish 2-year bond yields increased by 5 basis points, reflecting expectations of tighter monetary policy. Inflation breakeven rates rose modestly, signaling market anticipation of sustained inflation pressures.
Looking ahead, the PPI trajectory will be shaped by several key factors. On the upside, continued supply chain normalization and stable energy prices could sustain producer price increases. On the downside, global demand uncertainties and geopolitical risks may dampen inflation pressures.
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (30% probability): PPI rises above 0.60% MoM in coming months, driven by robust domestic demand and persistent supply constraints, pushing consumer inflation higher.
- Base (50% probability): PPI stabilizes around 0.30-0.40% MoM, reflecting balanced supply-demand dynamics and moderate inflation persistence.
- Bearish (20% probability): PPI declines below 0% MoM due to renewed external shocks, energy price drops, or demand slowdown, easing inflationary pressures.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and global trade uncertainties remain downside risks. Any escalation could disrupt supply chains and commodity markets, impacting producer prices. Conversely, resolution of conflicts or trade agreements could ease cost pressures.
Structural & long-run trends
Sweden’s transition to a green economy and digitalization may gradually reduce input cost volatility. However, labor market tightness and wage growth could sustain inflationary pressures in the medium term. Monitoring these structural shifts is essential for long-term inflation outlooks.
The November 2025 PPI MoM print of 0.40% signals a tentative rebound in upstream inflation pressures in Sweden. This development challenges the recent disinflation narrative and may influence the Riksbank’s policy stance in the near term. While risks remain balanced, the data underscore the importance of closely tracking producer prices as a leading indicator of consumer inflation trends.
Key Markets Likely to React to Producer Price Index MoM
The PPI’s movements typically influence several key markets, including Swedish equities, fixed income, currency pairs, and inflation-linked instruments. Investors and policymakers will watch these markets for signals on inflation persistence and monetary policy adjustments.
- OMXS30: Sweden’s benchmark stock index, sensitive to inflation and interest rate expectations.
- SEKUSD: The Swedish krona’s exchange rate against the US dollar, reflecting inflation and monetary policy differentials.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price, often viewed as an inflation hedge and risk sentiment barometer.
- ERIC: Ericsson, a major Swedish exporter, sensitive to input costs and global demand.
- EURSEK: Euro to Swedish krona exchange rate, reflecting regional economic and inflation dynamics.
Producer Price Index vs. OMXS30 Since 2020
Since 2020, the PPI and OMXS30 have shown a moderate positive correlation, with producer price spikes often preceding equity market volatility. For example, the PPI peak of 1.70% in February 2025 coincided with a temporary equity correction, while recent PPI stabilization has supported a rebound in the OMXS30 index.
FAQs
- What is the Producer Price Index MoM for Sweden?
- The Producer Price Index MoM measures the monthly change in prices received by producers in Sweden. The latest reading is 0.40% for November 2025.
- How does the PPI affect inflation and monetary policy?
- PPI is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Rising PPI can signal future inflationary pressures, influencing central bank decisions on interest rates.
- What are the risks to Sweden’s inflation outlook?
- Risks include external shocks, energy price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and structural changes in the economy that could either accelerate or dampen inflation.
Key takeaway: Sweden’s November PPI rebound signals renewed inflation pressures, warranting close monitoring amid mixed macroeconomic signals and evolving risks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 PPI MoM reading of 0.40% contrasts with October’s -0.70% and exceeds the 12-month average of 0.30%. This rebound highlights a reversal of recent downward trends and suggests renewed inflationary momentum at the producer level.
Energy and intermediate goods prices were the primary contributors, reflecting easing supply chain constraints and stable commodity prices. Durable goods also showed modest price increases, indicating strengthening domestic demand.