Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwedenSweden Unemployment Rate climbed to 9.4% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Sweden Unemployment Rate climbed to 9.4% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.7% from April's 8.7% reading. The print came in hotter than the 8.5% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 8.41%. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 9.2%, vs 8.07% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 83rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
9.4
Actual
8.5
Consensus
8.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.78 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 8.05
Actual: 9.4
Error: -1.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| EUR/SEK | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Sweden) was reported at 9.4% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 8.5% by 0.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of 8.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.37%, ranging from 6.8% to 9.7% across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 8.97%, up from the prior three at 7.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.88%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.95%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 8.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/SEK, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.78%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Riksbank Rate Decision (Jun 17) and Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Unemployment Rate - SE
Loading chart data...
About Unemployment Rate — Sweden
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 6.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 6.5 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 6.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bearish Euro STOXX 50, r=-0.66) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.