Singapore Core Inflation Rate YoY: November 2025 Analysis and Outlook
Key takeaways: Singapore's Core Inflation Rate YoY surged to 1.20% in November 2025, tripling October's 0.40% and doubling market expectations of 0.60%. This marks the highest reading since January 2025's 1.80%, signaling renewed inflationary pressures amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties. The acceleration reflects rising domestic demand and supply constraints, with implications for MAS policy and financial markets. Forward risks include global commodity volatility and geopolitical tensions, balanced by fiscal prudence and structural reforms.
Table of Contents
The latest Core Inflation Rate YoY for Singapore, released on November 24, 2025, registered at 1.20%, a sharp rise from the prior month’s 0.40% and well above the 0.60% consensus forecast. This figure, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects a significant uptick in underlying inflation pressures excluding volatile food and energy components. The reading is the highest since January 2025’s 1.80%, indicating a reversal of the subdued inflation trend observed through much of 2025.
Drivers this month
- Domestic demand rebound amid easing COVID-19 restrictions and robust consumer spending.
- Supply chain bottlenecks in manufacturing and logistics pushing up costs.
- Higher shelter and transport costs contributing approximately 0.35 and 0.25 percentage points respectively.
- Moderate wage growth supporting price increases.
Policy pulse
The 1.20% core inflation rate sits above the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) target range midpoint, intensifying pressure for cautious monetary tightening. MAS has signaled a calibrated approach, balancing inflation containment with growth support amid external uncertainties.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SGD strengthened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 8 basis points, reflecting hawkish repricing. Breakeven inflation swaps also climbed, signaling elevated inflation expectations.
Singapore’s core inflation trajectory must be viewed alongside key macroeconomic indicators. GDP growth for Q3 2025 came in at 2.10% YoY, slightly above expectations, supporting demand-driven price pressures. Unemployment remains low at 2.10%, underpinning wage growth and consumer confidence. The headline inflation rate, including food and energy, rose to 2.30% YoY, driven by global commodity price rebounds.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
MAS’s current policy stance involves a modest appreciation of the SGD nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) band. The recent inflation surge may prompt a steeper slope adjustment in the upcoming policy review. Financial conditions have tightened moderately, with lending rates edging up and credit growth slowing to 4.50% YoY.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Singapore’s fiscal policy remains prudent, with a 2025 budget surplus of SGD 2.10 billion. Targeted subsidies and infrastructure investments continue to support productivity without stoking inflation. The government’s focus on digitalization and green economy initiatives aims to enhance supply-side resilience.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs increased by 0.35 percentage points, reflecting rising rents and property maintenance expenses.
- Transport inflation contributed 0.25 percentage points, influenced by higher fuel prices and vehicle costs.
- Services inflation edged up 0.20 percentage points, linked to wage pressures and demand recovery.
Policy pulse
The inflation spike challenges MAS’s current neutral stance. The central bank may consider tightening measures sooner than anticipated if inflation expectations become unanchored.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: SGD/USD appreciated 0.30%, 2-year SGS yields rose 8 basis points, and inflation swaps increased 10 basis points, reflecting market repricing of monetary tightening risks.
This chart signals a clear upward trend in core inflation, reversing the prior four-month lull. The acceleration suggests inflationary pressures are broadening beyond transitory factors, warranting close monitoring by policymakers and investors.
Looking ahead, Singapore’s core inflation trajectory faces multiple influences. The baseline scenario projects inflation stabilizing around 1.00%–1.30% over the next six months, supported by steady domestic demand and moderate wage growth. However, upside risks include renewed commodity price shocks and geopolitical tensions disrupting supply chains. Conversely, a global economic slowdown or aggressive monetary tightening could temper inflation below 0.80%.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Inflation accelerates above 1.50% due to sustained demand and persistent supply constraints.
- MAS tightens monetary policy aggressively, pushing SGD higher and yields up.
- Financial markets price in higher interest rates, impacting borrowing costs.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Inflation moderates around 1.00%–1.30% as supply bottlenecks ease.
- MAS adopts gradual policy normalization, balancing growth and inflation.
- Financial conditions remain stable with moderate SGD appreciation.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Inflation falls below 0.80% due to global demand slowdown or policy over-tightening.
- MAS pauses tightening, focusing on growth support.
- Risk of deflationary pressures in select sectors.
Singapore’s November 2025 Core Inflation Rate YoY reading of 1.20% signals a notable shift in the inflation landscape. The acceleration reflects a complex interplay of domestic demand recovery, supply-side constraints, and external shocks. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act to contain inflation without stifling growth. Financial markets have already priced in some tightening, but uncertainty remains high amid geopolitical risks and global economic volatility.
Structural reforms aimed at productivity and supply chain resilience will be critical to managing long-run inflation pressures. Investors and businesses should prepare for a more dynamic inflation environment, with implications for asset allocation, pricing strategies, and risk management.
Data sourced from the Sigmanomics database, cross-verified with official MAS releases and international economic reports.
Notable tradable symbols correlated with Singapore’s inflation dynamics include: STI (Singapore’s benchmark stock index, sensitive to economic growth and inflation), USDSGD (USD/SGD forex pair, reflecting currency strength and monetary policy expectations), BTCUSD (Bitcoin, often viewed as an inflation hedge), DBS (major Singapore bank, impacted by interest rate changes), and EURSGD (Euro to SGD, influenced by regional inflation and policy divergence).
Key Markets Likely to React to Core Inflation Rate YoY
Singapore’s core inflation data typically influences several key markets. The STI index reacts to inflation-driven shifts in corporate earnings and economic growth prospects. The USDSGD forex pair is sensitive to MAS policy adjustments and global risk sentiment. DBS bank shares respond to interest rate changes affecting lending margins. The EURSGD pair reflects broader regional monetary policy divergence. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) often moves on inflation expectations as an alternative store of value.
Inflation vs. USDSGD Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, Singapore’s core inflation and the USDSGD exchange rate have shown a moderate positive correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with SGD appreciation, driven by MAS tightening cycles. For example, the 2025 inflation surge to 1.20% was accompanied by a 0.30% strengthening of SGD against USD, highlighting the currency’s sensitivity to inflation data and monetary policy expectations.
FAQs
- What is the Core Inflation Rate YoY for Singapore?
- The Core Inflation Rate YoY measures the annual change in prices excluding volatile food and energy, reflecting underlying inflation trends.
- How does the November 2025 reading compare historically?
- The 1.20% reading is the highest since January 2025’s 1.80%, reversing a four-month period of subdued inflation below 0.70%.
- What are the main risks to Singapore’s inflation outlook?
- Upside risks include commodity price shocks and geopolitical tensions; downside risks involve global slowdown and aggressive monetary tightening.
Takeaway: Singapore’s core inflation rebound to 1.20% signals renewed price pressures, prompting cautious MAS policy and market recalibration amid global uncertainties.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The Core Inflation Rate YoY in November 2025 rose sharply to 1.20%, compared to 0.40% in October and a 12-month average of approximately 0.80%. This jump reverses a four-month period of subdued inflation readings below 0.70%, highlighting renewed upward momentum.
Historically, the 1.20% figure is the highest since January 2025’s 1.80%, and well above the 0.30% low recorded in September 2025. The volatility suggests sensitivity to both domestic demand shifts and external cost pressures.