Singapore Core Inflation Rate YoY: January 2026 Update
Singapore’s core inflation rate, which excludes private transport and accommodation, registered a year-over-year increase of 1.0% in January 2026. This release, published on February 23, 2026, reflects a continued moderation from December’s 1.2% pace and stands well below the 1.6% market estimate. The latest data underscores persistent disinflationary forces in the city-state’s economy.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Food inflation: +0.22pp
- Services: +0.18pp
- Retail & other goods: +0.07pp
- Energy: -0.09pp
Policy pulse
January’s 1.0% reading sits well below the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s core inflation comfort zone, which typically ranges from 2% to 3%[1]. The persistent undershoot signals subdued underlying price pressures.
Market lens
SGD traded flat against major peers after the release. Market participants interpreted the data as reinforcing the MAS’s current policy stance, with no immediate pressure for tightening or easing. The muted reaction reflects consensus that inflation risks remain contained for now.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- January 2026: 1.0%
- December 2025: 1.2%
- November 2025: 1.2%
- October 2025: 0.4%
- September 2025: 0.3%
- 12-month average: 0.7%
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish (core inflation rebounds above 1.5% in coming months): 20–30%
- Base (remains near 1.0%): 60–70%
- Bearish (drops below 0.7%): 10–15%
Data source & methodology
Figures are sourced from Singapore’s Department of Statistics and the Sigmanomics database[1]. The core inflation rate excludes private transport and accommodation, providing a clearer view of underlying price trends.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Upside and downside risks
- Upside: Food and services costs could re-accelerate if global supply chains tighten.
- Downside: Weak external demand and stable energy prices may keep inflation muted.
Scenario breakdown
- Bullish: Core inflation climbs above 1.5% (20–30% probability).
- Base: Indicator holds near 1.0% (60–70% probability).
- Bearish: Drops below 0.7% (10–15% probability).
Market lens
Bond yields remained steady post-release. Investors see little reason to adjust rate expectations, given the persistent undershoot of core inflation relative to the MAS’s target band.
Closing Thoughts
Key takeaways
- Core inflation eased to 1.0% YoY in January, extending a cooling trend.
- Reading is well below the MAS’s comfort zone and market estimates.
- Market reaction was muted, with SGD and bond yields little changed.
Policy pulse
With core inflation running below target for several months, the MAS is likely to maintain its current policy stance barring a material shift in underlying drivers.
Key Markets Reacting to Core Inflation Rate YoY
Singapore’s core inflation data influences a range of asset classes, from equities to currencies and digital assets. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, have shown sensitivity to Singapore’s inflation releases, reflecting shifts in risk appetite and monetary policy outlook.
- AAPL: Global tech stocks often react to Asian inflation prints, as cost pressures can affect supply chains.
- EURUSD: Major currency pairs reflect shifts in global inflation expectations and central bank divergence.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s volatility can increase on inflation surprises, as investors reassess hedging strategies.
| Year | SG Core Inflation YoY (%) | AAPL (YoY % Change) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.2 | 82.3 |
| 2021 | 0.6 | 34.0 |
| 2022 | 1.7 | -26.8 |
| 2023 | 2.2 | 48.2 |
| 2024 | 1.1 | 49.0 |
| 2025 | 0.7 | 55.3 |
| 2026 (YTD) | 1.0 | 12.1 |
This table shows that while Singapore’s core inflation has remained subdued, AAPL’s annual performance has varied widely, with no direct one-to-one correlation but notable sensitivity during periods of global inflation volatility.
FAQ
-
What is Singapore’s latest core inflation rate YoY?
Singapore’s core inflation rate for January 2026 is 1.0% year-over-year, down from December’s 1.2%. -
How does the current figure compare to recent trends?
The 1.0% reading extends a cooling trend, with the 12-month average at 0.7% and the last peak at 1.2% in November and December 2025. -
Why is the core inflation rate important for Singapore?
Core inflation is a key focus for policymakers and investors, as it strips out volatile components and signals underlying price pressures in the economy.
Singapore’s core inflation rate continues to cool, reinforcing a disinflationary narrative and supporting a steady policy outlook.
Updated 2/23/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Singapore Department of Statistics, Core Inflation Rate YoY, official release 2/23/26; Sigmanomics database, https://sigmanomics.com/.
January’s 1.0% core inflation print marks a further slowdown from December’s 1.2%, and is below the 12-month average of 0.7%. The last time core inflation was this low was in November 2025, also at 1.2%.
Over the past six months, the indicator has hovered between 0.3% and 1.2%, with the sharpest uptick in November. The latest reading confirms a return to the lower end of the recent range.