Singapore Inflation Rate MoM: January 2026 Plunges to -0.5%
Singapore’s inflation rate on a month-over-month basis registered a significant contraction in January 2026, according to official data released on February 23, 2026. The -0.5% reading stands in stark contrast to December’s 0.3% increase, underscoring a rapid shift in price momentum as the city-state enters the new year.
Big-Picture Snapshot
- January 2026 inflation rate MoM: -0.5%
- December 2025: 0.3%
- 12-month average (Feb 2025–Jan 2026): 0.02%
- Consensus estimate: -0.2%
- Largest monthly drop since late 2024
Drivers This Month
- Core goods: -0.22pp
- Energy: -0.15pp
- Food: -0.08pp
- Shelter: -0.03pp
Policy Pulse
January’s reading sits well below the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s preferred price stability range, raising questions about underlying demand and imported cost pressures.
Market Lens
SGD weakened modestly against major peers on the surprise downside print. Bond yields edged lower as traders recalibrated inflation expectations, while local equities saw muted reaction amid global risk sentiment.Foundational Indicators
- MoM inflation: -0.5% (Jan 2026)
- MoM inflation: 0.3% (Dec 2025)
- MoM inflation: 0.2% (Nov 2025)
- MoM inflation: 0.0% (Oct 2025)
- MoM inflation: 0.0% (Sep 2025)
- MoM inflation: 0.0% (Aug 2025)
Drivers This Month
- Imported goods prices fell sharply
- Energy costs continued to decline
- Food inflation moderated further
Policy Pulse
With inflation now below target for the first time since mid-2025, policymakers face a new set of trade-offs between supporting growth and guarding against disinflationary risks.
Market Lens
Bond markets priced in a lower inflation trajectory for Q1 2026. The Singapore dollar’s modest depreciation reflected shifting expectations for monetary policy calibration.Chart Dynamics
Drivers This Month
- Energy and core goods led the decline
- Food and shelter contributed smaller negative effects
Policy Pulse
With inflation undershooting the MAS’s comfort zone, the focus turns to whether this is a one-off or signals a more persistent trend.
Market Lens
Short-term rates edged lower as traders digested the data. The muted equity response reflected broader risk-off sentiment rather than a direct inflation read-through.Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish (20–30%): Inflation rebounds toward the 0.2–0.3% range as energy prices stabilize and domestic demand recovers.
- Base (50–60%): Inflation remains subdued, fluctuating near zero as global disinflationary forces persist and local consumption stays soft.
- Bearish (15–25%): Further negative prints if external price pressures intensify or domestic slack widens.
Drivers This Month
- Imported disinflation
- Muted wage growth
- Stable housing costs
Policy Pulse
MAS is likely to monitor for persistent downside surprises before considering any recalibration of its policy stance.
Market Lens
Forward rates signal little expectation of a near-term inflation rebound. Investors remain cautious, watching for further data to confirm the trend.Closing Thoughts
Drivers This Month
- Energy and core goods deflation
- Softening food prices
Policy Pulse
With inflation now below target, the MAS faces a delicate balancing act between supporting growth and maintaining price stability.
Market Lens
Market participants are recalibrating inflation expectations for 2026. The sharp January drop has injected fresh uncertainty into the near-term outlook.Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate MoM
Singapore’s January inflation surprise has rippled across asset classes, with currency, equity, and crypto markets each responding to the abrupt shift in price momentum. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, reflect the most direct correlations and market sensitivities to the inflation print.
- AAPL: Global tech stocks often react to inflation surprises via risk sentiment and discount rate shifts.
- EURUSD: The Singapore dollar’s move against the euro and dollar reflects changing inflation differentials.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price action can amplify on macroeconomic surprises, including inflation data shocks.
| Month | Inflation Rate MoM (%) | AAPL (Monthly % Change) |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | -0.5 | -1.2 |
| Dec 2025 | 0.3 | 2.4 |
| Nov 2025 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| Oct 2025 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
This table shows that AAPL’s monthly returns have loosely tracked Singapore’s inflation surprises, with negative inflation in January coinciding with a modest pullback in the stock.
FAQ
- What does the January 2026 Singapore Inflation Rate MoM figure indicate?
- It shows a -0.5% month-over-month change, marking the largest drop in over a year and signaling a sharp reversal from December’s 0.3% increase.
- How does this inflation print affect markets and policy?
- The downside surprise led to a weaker SGD, lower bond yields, and recalibrated inflation expectations, with MAS likely to monitor for persistent trends before acting.
- What are the main drivers of Singapore’s January 2026 inflation rate?
- Core goods and energy prices were the primary contributors to the decline, with food and shelter also exerting downward pressure.
Singapore’s inflation rate MoM for January 2026 signals a pivotal shift in price momentum, with broad implications for policy and markets.
Updated 2/23/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Singapore Department of Statistics, “Consumer Price Index and Inflation Rate,” official release, 2/23/26.
- Sigmanomics Economic Database, “SG Inflation Rate MoM,” accessed 2/23/26.
January’s -0.5% MoM inflation rate marks a sharp reversal from December’s 0.3% and stands well below the 12-month average of 0.02%. The last time Singapore posted a monthly decline of this magnitude was in late 2024, highlighting the abruptness of the current move.
Compared to November’s 0.2% and a string of flat readings through mid-2025, the latest figure signals a pronounced shift in price pressures. The magnitude of the drop exceeded both market and official forecasts, underscoring the volatility in short-term inflation dynamics.