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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SingaporeSingapore Retail Sales MoM fell to -1.0% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Singapore Retail Sales MoM fell to -1.0% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 1.6% from July's 0.6% reading. The reading missed the 0.3% consensus by 1.3%. Retail Sales MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged 0.95%, vs 0.57% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 37th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.63 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.53
Actual: -1
Error: +1.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (Singapore) was reported at -1% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 1.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.05%, ranging from -5.4% to 6.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.3%, down from the prior three at 1.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.86%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.15%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged 0.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.63%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 5, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - SG
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About Retail Sales MoM — Singapore
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -1 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - SG Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:00 | SG | Bank Lending | 978.8 | 966.4 | 909.5 | 944.15 | Low |
| 02:30 | SG | Unemployment Rate | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | SG | Business Confidence | 12 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| 13:00 | SG | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.7 | 51.8 | 51.80 | Low | |