The latest Retail Sales MoM data for SI, released on November 27, 2025, shows a robust 0.90% increase, reversing October’s 0.70% contraction. This figure outpaces the Sigmanomics database consensus estimate of 0.50%, signaling stronger-than-expected consumer demand. Over the past 12 months, retail sales have averaged a modest 0.10% monthly gain, highlighting November’s print as a significant positive outlier.

Drivers this month

• Core retail sectors such as apparel and electronics contributed 0.35 percentage points (pp).
• Food and beverage sales added 0.25 pp, reflecting easing supply chain constraints.
• Automotive retail rebounded, contributing 0.15 pp after prior weakness.
• Online retail growth accelerated, adding 0.10 pp.

Policy pulse

The 0.90% gain places retail sales comfortably above the central bank’s inflation-adjusted target range, suggesting resilient consumer spending despite tighter monetary policy. The SI central bank has maintained a cautious stance, with the key policy rate steady at 3.50% since September. This data may reduce near-term pressure for further rate hikes.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The SI currency (EUR/SI) strengthened 0.30% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting improved growth expectations. Breakeven inflation rates held steady, indicating stable inflation outlooks despite the sales rebound.

Retail sales are a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting household consumption, which accounts for roughly 60% of SI’s GDP. The 0.90% MoM increase in November contrasts with the prior month’s -0.70%, marking a sharp turnaround. Historically, retail sales in SI have shown volatility, with notable dips in April (-2.00%) and August (-0.90%) 2025, linked to supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The central bank’s steady policy rate and moderate inflation (2.30% YoY) have supported consumer confidence. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with credit growth steady at 4.50% YoY. The recent retail sales rebound aligns with easing inflationary pressures and stable lending rates.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal tightening measures implemented in Q3 2025, including reduced subsidies and higher consumption taxes, initially dampened retail sales. November’s rebound suggests these effects may be moderating. The government’s budget deficit narrowed to 2.80% of GDP in Q3, allowing for targeted stimulus in vulnerable sectors.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Ongoing regional tensions and energy price volatility continue to pose risks to consumer spending. However, November’s data indicates resilience amid these headwinds. Supply chain normalization and improved logistics have also supported retail recovery.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: EUR/SI appreciated 0.30%, 2-year yields rose 5 bps, and breakeven inflation remained stable. This reflects market confidence in sustained consumer demand without triggering inflation fears.

Looking ahead, retail sales growth in SI faces a mix of supportive and challenging factors. Easing inflation and stable monetary policy underpin a bullish outlook, while geopolitical risks and fiscal tightening could temper gains.

Scenario analysis

• Bullish (30% probability): Continued retail sales growth above 0.70% MoM, driven by strong labor markets and consumer confidence, supporting GDP growth above 3% in 2026.
• Base (50% probability): Moderate growth averaging 0.30–0.50% MoM, with occasional volatility due to external shocks and fiscal adjustments.
• Bearish (20% probability): Renewed declines in retail sales (-0.50% MoM or worse) triggered by geopolitical escalation or tighter credit conditions, risking recessionary pressures.

Structural & long-run trends

Long-term retail sales growth in SI is influenced by demographic shifts, digitalization, and evolving consumer preferences. The rise of e-commerce, now accounting for 25% of total retail sales, will likely sustain growth despite cyclical headwinds. Inflation targeting and fiscal prudence remain critical to maintaining purchasing power.

November’s 0.90% MoM retail sales rebound in SI marks a pivotal moment for the economy. It signals renewed consumer strength after months of volatility and aligns with stable monetary and fiscal conditions. However, vigilance is warranted given persistent geopolitical risks and potential fiscal tightening. Policymakers should balance support for consumption with inflation control to sustain growth.

Investors and market participants should monitor upcoming inflation data, central bank communications, and geopolitical developments closely. The retail sales trajectory will remain a key barometer for SI’s economic health and financial market sentiment in the near term.

Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales MoM

Retail sales data is a critical gauge of consumer demand and economic momentum, influencing multiple asset classes. Markets sensitive to SI’s economic cycle and monetary policy will likely react to this release.

• ABC: A leading retail stock in SI, closely tracking consumer spending trends.
• XYZ: A consumer discretionary ETF, sensitive to retail sales fluctuations.
• EURUSD: The currency pair reflects SI’s currency strength relative to the Euro, influenced by retail-driven growth expectations.
• USDSI: Tracks the SI currency against the US dollar, reacting to macroeconomic data.
• BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price often reflects risk sentiment shifts triggered by economic data surprises.

FAQs

What is the significance of the SI Retail Sales MoM data?

The Retail Sales MoM data measures monthly changes in consumer spending, a key driver of SI’s economic growth and inflation trends.

How does the latest retail sales figure compare historically?

November’s 0.90% increase is the strongest monthly gain since March 2025 and reverses the prior month’s decline, signaling a rebound in consumer demand.

What factors influence SI’s retail sales trends?

Monetary policy, fiscal measures, geopolitical risks, and structural shifts like e-commerce adoption all impact retail sales dynamics in SI.

Final takeaway: The November retail sales rebound in SI underscores resilient consumer demand amid a complex macro backdrop. This momentum supports a cautiously optimistic economic outlook heading into 2026.

Sources

1. Sigmanomics database, Retail Sales MoM data for SI, November 2025 release.
2. SI Central Bank Monetary Policy Reports, Q3 2025.
3. SI Government Fiscal Budget Statements, Q3 2025.
4. Financial Markets Data, Bloomberg Terminal, November 2025.
5. Geopolitical Risk Assessments, International Economic Forum, November 2025.