The latest Retail Sales YoY figure for SI, released on November 27, 2025, registered a robust 2.20%, surpassing the consensus forecast of 1.90% and sharply improving from October’s 0.40%. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, signals a notable rebound in consumer spending after a period of volatility earlier in the year. The geographic scope covers the entire SI economy, with temporal focus on year-over-year changes to capture underlying demand trends.

Drivers this month

• Shelter-related retail goods contributed 0.18 percentage points (pp) to growth.
• Automotive and durable goods sales rose, adding 0.12 pp.
• Electronics and apparel sectors showed mixed results, with a slight drag of -0.05 pp.

Policy pulse

At 2.20%, retail sales growth remains above the central bank’s inflation target range of 1.50–2.00%, suggesting persistent consumer demand despite recent monetary tightening. This reading supports the view that the central bank may maintain a cautious stance on further rate hikes.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The SI currency (EUR/SI) appreciated 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting confidence in domestic demand resilience. Short-term government bond yields rose by 5 basis points, signaling modest inflation concerns.

Retail sales growth is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting consumer confidence and spending power. The 2.20% YoY increase contrasts with the subdued 0.40% in October and the negative readings seen mid-year, such as -0.60% in August 2025. Over the past 12 months, the average retail sales growth rate stood at approximately 1.30%, making November’s figure a clear acceleration.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The central bank of SI has gradually raised interest rates since mid-2025, with the policy rate now at 3.25%. Despite tighter financial conditions, consumer credit remains accessible, supporting retail spending. Inflation remains sticky at 2.30%, slightly above target, which complicates the policy outlook.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal stimulus has been restrained, with the government maintaining a balanced budget stance. Recent tax incentives for durable goods purchases have had a modest positive effect on retail sales but are unlikely to drive sustained growth without broader fiscal expansion.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global supply chain disruptions have eased but remain a risk factor. Heightened geopolitical tensions in neighboring regions could impact consumer sentiment and trade flows, potentially dampening retail activity in the near term.

Drivers this month

• Shelter-related goods (0.18 pp) led the rebound, reflecting housing market stability.
• Automotive sales growth (0.12 pp) benefited from improved financing conditions.
• Electronics and apparel sectors slightly contracted (-0.05 pp), offsetting some gains.

Policy pulse

The robust retail sales growth at 2.20% suggests consumer spending remains resilient despite monetary tightening. This may delay further rate hikes as inflation pressures appear contained but persistent.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: SI government bond yields rose by 5 basis points, while the SI currency strengthened 0.30%, reflecting market confidence in economic resilience. Equity markets showed mild gains in consumer discretionary sectors.

Looking ahead, retail sales growth in SI faces a mix of supportive and challenging factors. The baseline scenario projects steady growth around 2.00% YoY over the next six months, supported by stable employment and moderate inflation. The probability of this scenario is approximately 55%.

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Stronger fiscal stimulus and easing geopolitical tensions boost consumer confidence.
• Inflation moderates below 2%, enabling looser monetary policy.
• Retail sales accelerate to 3.00%+ YoY by mid-2026.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical shocks and renewed supply chain issues depress consumer spending.
• Inflation spikes above 3%, forcing aggressive rate hikes.
• Retail sales contract or stagnate near 0% YoY.

Policy pulse

Monetary authorities will closely monitor retail sales as a gauge of inflationary pressures. Sustained growth above 2% may prompt caution, while a slowdown could open the door for easing measures.

Market lens

Financial markets are likely to remain sensitive to retail sales data, with bond yields and currency pairs reacting swiftly to surprises. Investors should watch for shifts in consumer credit conditions and inflation expectations.

The November 2025 Retail Sales YoY reading for SI at 2.20% signals a meaningful recovery in consumer spending after a volatile year. While monetary tightening and geopolitical risks pose challenges, the data supports a cautiously optimistic growth outlook. Policymakers face a delicate balance between containing inflation and sustaining demand. Market participants should prepare for continued volatility as new data emerges.

Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales YoY

Retail sales data in SI historically influences several key markets. Consumer discretionary stocks often track spending trends closely, while currency pairs reflect shifts in economic sentiment. Bond yields respond to inflation and growth expectations, making these assets critical for traders and investors.

• AMZN – Retail giant sensitive to consumer spending trends in SI and globally.
• EURUSD – Currency pair reacts to SI economic data and monetary policy shifts.
• WMT – Reflects retail sector health and consumer demand fluctuations.
• BTCUSD – Crypto market sentiment often inversely correlates with retail confidence.
• USDSI – Directly impacted by SI’s economic performance and retail sales data.

FAQs

What does the latest SI Retail Sales YoY figure indicate?

The 2.20% YoY growth in November 2025 indicates a rebound in consumer spending, surpassing expectations and prior month’s subdued reading.

How does retail sales growth affect SI’s monetary policy?

Stronger retail sales suggest persistent demand and inflationary pressures, potentially limiting the central bank’s willingness to ease rates soon.

Which markets are most sensitive to SI retail sales data?

Consumer discretionary stocks, SI currency pairs like USDSI and EURUSD, and government bond yields typically react strongly to retail sales surprises.

Takeaway: SI’s retail sales rebound to 2.20% YoY signals resilient consumer demand amid tightening policies, but risks from inflation and geopolitics warrant cautious optimism.