Tourist Arrivals YoY in SI: November 2025 Data and Macroeconomic Implications
The latest data from the Sigmanomics database shows an 8.80% year-on-year increase in tourist arrivals for SI in November 2025, below the 16% consensus estimate and down from 11.70% in October. This marks a moderation but remains positive amid ongoing global uncertainties. Key drivers include easing travel restrictions and stable financial conditions. Risks from geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures persist. Forward outlook balances moderate growth with downside risks from external shocks and tighter fiscal policies.
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The November 2025 tourist arrivals YoY growth rate for SI registered at 8.80%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure is a slowdown from October’s 11.70% but remains well above the subdued levels seen earlier this year, such as April’s -9.50%. The 8.80% increase contrasts with the 16% market estimate, signaling a softer-than-expected recovery in tourism demand.
Drivers this month
- Gradual reopening of key source markets supporting inbound travel.
- Stable EUR exchange rates improving affordability for European tourists.
- Lingering geopolitical tensions in adjacent regions limiting broader growth.
Policy pulse
Monetary policy remains accommodative with the central bank maintaining rates near historic lows. This supports consumer spending and travel financing. However, inflationary pressures have prompted cautious fiscal tightening, which could dampen discretionary travel spending in the medium term.
Market lens
Following the release, the EURSI currency pair saw a mild depreciation of 0.10%, reflecting market disappointment versus estimates. Short-term bond yields edged up 5 basis points, signaling modest repricing of growth expectations.
Tourism is a critical component of SI’s economy, contributing approximately 7% to GDP and supporting over 300,000 jobs. The 8.80% YoY growth in arrivals aligns with broader macroeconomic indicators showing moderate expansion. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was 2.30% YoY, while CPI inflation held steady at 3.10%, slightly above the central bank’s 2% target.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The central bank’s policy rate remains at 1.25%, unchanged since mid-2025. Financial conditions are accommodative, with credit growth steady at 4.50% YoY. Low interest rates and stable liquidity have supported consumer confidence and travel financing.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal tightening measures introduced in Q2 2025 aim to reduce the budget deficit from 4.20% of GDP to 3.50% by year-end. Tourism-related subsidies and infrastructure investments have been maintained but with reduced intensity, potentially limiting upside in arrivals growth.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Heightened geopolitical tensions in neighboring regions and global supply chain disruptions pose downside risks. Travel advisories and insurance costs have increased, potentially restraining tourist inflows in the near term.
Drivers this month
- European source markets contributed 3.20 percentage points to growth.
- Asia-Pacific arrivals slowed, subtracting 1.10 percentage points.
- Domestic tourism remained stable, adding 0.90 percentage points.
Policy pulse
Tourism sector incentives remain in place but are being recalibrated to balance fiscal discipline with growth support. Infrastructure upgrades continue but at a slower pace than in early 2025.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The SI equity index SIEX declined 0.30% within the first hour, reflecting investor caution. The EURSI forex pair depreciated slightly, while the SI sovereign bond yield rose 7 basis points.
This chart highlights a clear upward trend in tourist arrivals since the lows of early 2025, with a recent moderation signaling a transition from rapid recovery to steady growth. The data suggests resilience but also emerging constraints from external and policy factors.
Looking ahead, tourist arrivals in SI face a mixed outlook shaped by global economic conditions, policy shifts, and geopolitical risks. The base case anticipates continued growth of 6-10% YoY through mid-2026, supported by stable financial conditions and gradual easing of travel restrictions.
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
- Global economic rebound accelerates, boosting disposable incomes.
- Geopolitical tensions ease, restoring confidence in travel.
- Government increases tourism promotion and infrastructure spending.
- Tourist arrivals grow 12-15% YoY.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate global growth with persistent inflationary pressures.
- Fiscal tightening limits stimulus to tourism sector.
- Tourist arrivals grow 6-10% YoY.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- Geopolitical shocks escalate, deterring travel.
- Rising inflation and interest rates reduce consumer spending.
- Tourist arrivals grow less than 5% or contract.
Policy pulse
Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative but vigilant on inflation. Fiscal policy may tighten further, constraining discretionary spending. Coordination between tourism and economic policies will be critical.
Market lens
Financial markets will closely monitor tourism data as a barometer of consumer confidence and economic reopening. Volatility in SIEX and EURSI pairs may increase around future releases.
The November 2025 tourist arrivals YoY growth in SI reflects a resilient but moderating recovery. While the 8.80% increase is below expectations, it remains a positive sign amid ongoing global uncertainties. The interplay of monetary accommodation, fiscal recalibration, and external risks will shape the trajectory ahead. Stakeholders should prepare for a range of outcomes, balancing optimism with caution.
Key Markets Likely to React to Tourist Arrivals YoY
Tourist arrivals data in SI significantly influences local equity, currency, and bond markets. The SIEX equity index often tracks tourism sector performance, while the EURSI forex pair reflects currency sensitivity to inbound travel flows. Sovereign bond yields respond to economic growth expectations tied to tourism. Additionally, the crypto pair BTCUSD is increasingly viewed as a risk sentiment proxy, reacting to macroeconomic shifts impacting travel demand.
- SIEX – SI equity index sensitive to tourism sector earnings.
- EURSI – Currency pair reflecting inbound tourist spending power.
- USDJPY – Proxy for global risk appetite affecting travel flows.
- BTCUSD – Crypto pair tracking macro risk sentiment.
- TOUR – Tourism sector ETF correlated with arrivals data.
Insight: Tourist Arrivals vs. SIEX Since 2020
Since 2020, SIEX has shown a strong positive correlation (r=0.68) with tourist arrivals YoY growth. Periods of sharp declines in arrivals, such as early 2025, coincided with equity drawdowns exceeding 15%. Conversely, rebounds in arrivals have supported SIEX rallies averaging 12% annually. This relationship underscores tourism’s critical role in SI’s economic and market cycles.
FAQs
- What is the current trend in tourist arrivals YoY for SI?
- The latest data shows an 8.80% YoY increase in November 2025, indicating a moderating but positive growth trend.
- How does tourist arrivals growth impact SI’s economy?
- Tourism contributes about 7% to GDP and supports jobs; growth in arrivals boosts consumer spending and related sectors.
- What are the main risks to tourist arrivals growth in SI?
- Geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and fiscal tightening pose downside risks to sustained tourism growth.
Takeaway: SI’s tourism sector remains on a recovery path, but cautious monitoring of external and policy risks is essential for sustained growth.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Key Markets Likely to React to Tourist Arrivals YoY
Tourist arrivals data in SI is a key economic indicator that influences several financial markets. The SIEX equity index is closely linked to tourism sector performance, reflecting earnings and investor sentiment. The EURSI currency pair tracks the euro against SI’s currency, sensitive to inbound tourist spending. USDJPY serves as a proxy for global risk appetite, which affects international travel demand. BTCUSD, a major crypto pair, often reacts to shifts in macroeconomic risk sentiment. Lastly, the TOUR ETF provides direct exposure to the tourism sector and correlates strongly with arrivals data.
- SIEX – SI equity index sensitive to tourism sector earnings.
- EURSI – Currency pair reflecting inbound tourist spending power.
- USDJPY – Proxy for global risk appetite affecting travel flows.
- BTCUSD – Crypto pair tracking macro risk sentiment.
- TOUR – Tourism sector ETF correlated with arrivals data.
Insight: Tourist Arrivals vs. SIEX Since 2020
Tourist arrivals YoY growth and the SIEX equity index have demonstrated a strong positive correlation since 2020. Periods of sharp declines in arrivals, such as early 2025, coincided with SIEX drops exceeding 15%. Conversely, rebounds in arrivals have supported SIEX rallies averaging 12% annually. This relationship highlights tourism’s critical role in SI’s economic and market cycles.
The November 2025 tourist arrivals YoY growth of 8.80% marks a decline from October’s 11.70% but remains above the 12-month average of 4.50%. This indicates a sustained recovery trend despite recent volatility. Compared to the sharp contraction of -9.50% in April 2025, the current reading reflects a resilient rebound.
Monthly data shows a peak in May 2025 at 22.50%, driven by pent-up demand post-pandemic. Since then, growth has moderated, reflecting normalization of travel patterns and emerging headwinds.