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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SloveniaSlovenia Tourist Arrivals YoY climbed to 11.4% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Slovenia Tourist Arrivals YoY climbed to 11.4% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 5.4% from August's 6.0% reading. The print exceeded the 4.1% consensus by 7.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 5.8%. Over the past 3 months, Tourist Arrivals YoY averaged 8.3%, vs 4.07% in the prior 3-month window. Tourist Arrivals YoY is now the highest in 11 months.
Latest Release
11.4
Actual
4.1
Consensus
6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 5.63
Actual: 11.4
Error: -5.78
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tourist Arrivals YoY (Slovenia) was reported at 11.4% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.1% by 7.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.71%, ranging from -3.1% to 11.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 9.33%, up from the prior three at 4.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.67%) is lower than the prior year (σ 8.86%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Tourist Arrivals YoY has averaged 7.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 25, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Tourist Arrivals YoY - SI
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About Tourist Arrivals YoY — Slovenia
DEFINITION
Tourist Arrivals YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of tourists visiting a particular destination. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of tourism in a specific location, which can have a significant impact on the local economy. This indicator is often used by businesses and governments to track the performance of the tourism industry and make informed decisions regarding marketing strategies, investment opportunities, and policy changes.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 11.4 %, consensus 4.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 10.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - SI Events
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 | SI | Balance of Trade | -1380.5 | -1010 | -728.65 | Low | |