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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SlovakiaSlovakia Balance of Trade fell to -125M in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Slovakia Balance of Trade fell to -125M in August 2026, released October 2026, down 183.3M from July's 58.3M reading. The reading missed the 50M consensus by 175M. Balance of Trade has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 186.05M, vs 416.03M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
-125
Actual
50
Consensus
58.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±112.68 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -50.33
Actual: -125
Error: +74.67
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Slovakia) was reported at -125.00 million in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 50.00 million by 175.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 58.30 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 196.99 million, ranging from -162.70 million to 580.60 million across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 82.37 million, down from the prior three at 207.83 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 287.62 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 330.51 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 80.43 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 112.68 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 9, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - SK
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About Balance of Trade — Slovakia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -125 M, consensus 50 M. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.8 M. Before that (Jun 2026): 372.9 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.64) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - SK Events
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | SK | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 08:00 | SK | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Low | |