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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SlovakiaSlovakia Balance of Trade climbed to 580.6M in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Slovakia Balance of Trade climbed to 580.6M in May 2026, released July 2026, up 555.9M from April's 24.7M reading. The print exceeded the 125M consensus by 455.6M. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 268.76M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 333.75M, vs 157.65M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 90th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
580.6
Actual
125
Consensus
24.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±143.8 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 115.8
Actual: 580.6
Error: -464.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Slovakia) was reported at 580.60 million in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 125.00 million by 455.60 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 24.70 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 259.12 million, ranging from -162.70 million to 580.60 million across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 207.83 million, down from the prior three at 300.77 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 249.04 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 353.37 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 502.80 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 143.80 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - SK
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About Balance of Trade — Slovakia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 580.6 M, consensus 125 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 76 M. Before that (Mar 2026): 591.5 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.73) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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