SN Inflation Rate MoM: February Print Shows Marked Rebound
Big-Picture Snapshot
- Drivers this month:
- Food prices: -0.12pp
- Transport: -0.04pp
- Utilities: -0.03pp
- Policy pulse: February's -0.2% reading remains below the BCEAO's 2% target, extending a five-month streak of sub-target prints.
- Market lens: Markets showed little volatility following the release. The modest rebound from January's sharp drop was largely anticipated, with traders focusing on the underlying trend of persistent disinflation.
Foundational Indicators
- February 2026: -0.2% MoM
- January 2026: -1.3% MoM
- December 2025: -0.1% MoM
- November 2025: -0.2% MoM
- 12-month average: 0.18%
- Peak in last 6 months: 1.3% (October 2025)
Compared to the 1.3% surge in October, the latest figure underscores a pronounced cooling trend. The last positive monthly print was 1.1% in August 2025. Since then, inflation has remained negative or near zero, reflecting subdued demand and stable commodity prices.
Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart highlights a clear disinflationary path, with inflation rates turning negative in five of the last six months. The February rebound signals a pause in the downward momentum, but the broader trend remains subdued. Sustained negative prints could reinforce expectations of continued policy accommodation.
Forward Outlook
- Bullish scenario (20–30%): A return to modest positive MoM prints if food and energy prices recover, lifting inflation toward the 0.5% range.
- Base scenario (50–60%): Inflation remains near zero or slightly negative, with continued weak demand and stable input costs.
- Bearish scenario (15–25%): Further declines below -0.5% if external shocks or supply gluts persist, deepening disinflation.
Risks remain balanced. Upside risks include a rebound in global commodity prices or fiscal stimulus. Downside risks stem from weak domestic demand and persistent supply chain normalization. The BCEAO's stance remains accommodative, with no immediate pressure to tighten policy.
Data source: Sigmanomics database. Methodology: Official national statistics, MoM percentage change in consumer price index, XOF basis.
Closing Thoughts
- February's inflation rate marks the smallest monthly decline since November, signaling stabilization after January's sharp drop.
- With inflation well below target, the central bank retains flexibility to support growth.
- Markets remain focused on the underlying disinflationary trend, with little immediate reaction to the latest print.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate MoM
Inflation data from SN influences a range of asset classes, from equities to currencies and digital assets. The latest -0.2% MoM print prompted muted reactions, but persistent disinflation can shape expectations for monetary policy and risk appetite. Below are key tradable symbols with direct or indirect exposure to SN's inflation trajectory.
- AAPL: Sensitive to global demand cycles and emerging market inflation trends.
- EURUSD: Correlates with West African franc (XOF) moves, reflecting regional inflation dynamics.
- BTCUSD: Often reacts to inflation surprises in emerging markets as a perceived inflation hedge.
| Month | Inflation Rate MoM (%) | AAPL Relative Performance |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2025 | 0.9 | Stable |
| Oct 2025 | 1.3 | Outperformed |
| Jan 2026 | -1.3 | Underperformed |
| Feb 2026 | -0.2 | Flat |
Since 2020, AAPL's performance has shown mild correlation with SN's inflation swings, outperforming during positive inflation prints and lagging during sharp disinflation.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the latest SN Inflation Rate MoM figure?
- The most recent print for SN's Inflation Rate MoM is -0.2% for February 2026, up from -1.3% in January.
- How does the February 2026 inflation reading compare to recent trends?
- February's -0.2% marks the smallest monthly decline since November, reflecting a stabilization after several months of negative prints.
- What does "Inflation Rate MoM" mean in the context of SN's economy?
- It measures the month-over-month percentage change in consumer prices, providing a timely gauge of inflationary or disinflationary pressures in SN.
SN's inflation rate has stabilized, but the disinflationary trend remains the dominant theme for policymakers and markets.
Updated 3/10/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics database, official SN inflation releases, MoM CPI methodology.
February's -0.2% inflation rate marks a significant improvement from January's -1.3%, and is in line with November's -0.2%. The 12-month average sits at 0.18%, well below the BCEAO's target. Over the past six months, monthly inflation has ranged from 1.3% (October) to -1.3% (January), with only two positive prints since July 2025.
Volatility has eased since the sharp swings of late 2025. The current reading suggests stabilization, though the overall trend remains negative. The market's muted response reflects confidence in the central bank's ability to manage price pressures.