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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
El SalvadorEl Salvador Balance of Trade climbed to -1,030.96M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
El Salvador Balance of Trade climbed to -1,030.96M in June 2026, released July 2026, up 154.97M from May's -1,185.93M reading. The reading matched the -1,020M consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 186.26M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -1,084.18M, vs -817.81M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 16th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1030.96
Actual
-1020
Consensus
-1185.93
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±144.94 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -886.23
Actual: -1,030.96
Error: +144.74
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (El Salvador) was reported at -1,030.96 million in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -1,020.00 million by 10.96 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -1,185.93 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -969.41 million, ranging from -1,185.93 million to -799.23 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1,049.78 million, down from the prior three at -875.16 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 107.59 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 73.14 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -860.89 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 144.94 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 25, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - SV
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About Balance of Trade — El Salvador
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -1,031 M, consensus -1,020 M. Prior reading (May 2026): -1,185.9 M. Before that (Apr 2026): -932.5 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.53) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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