Loading page content
Loading page content
El Salvador Balance of Trade climbed to -932.45M in April 2026, released May 2026, up 201.71M from March's -1,134.16M reading. The print exceeded the -1,200M consensus by 267.55M. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 21.35M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -985.27M, vs -894.55M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 34th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
across last 12 releases
May 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
Balance of Trade (El Salvador) was reported at -932.45 million in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1,200.00 million by 267.55 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -1,134.16 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -930.82 million, ranging from -1,078.53 million to -799.23 million across 11 releases.
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -856.02 million, up from the prior three at -993.67 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 83.28 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 76.58 million). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -889.13 million.
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 135.15 million.
The next release is scheduled for June 23, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -932.5 M, consensus -1,200 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -1,134.2 M. Before that (Feb 2026): -836.4 M.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.40) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments