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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
El SalvadorEl Salvador Balance of Trade climbed to -932.45M in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
El Salvador Balance of Trade climbed to -932.45M in April 2026, released May 2026, up 201.71M from March's -1,134.16M reading. The print exceeded the -1,200M consensus by 267.55M. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 21.35M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -985.27M, vs -894.55M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 34th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-932.45
Actual
-1200
Consensus
-1134.16
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±135.15 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -1,293.19
Actual: -932.45
Error: -360.74
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (El Salvador) was reported at -1,185.93 in June 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of -932.45. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -952.47, ranging from -1,185.93 to -799.23 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -984.92, down from the prior three at -939.51. Volatility over the past year (σ 111.16) is higher than the prior year (σ 83.28). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -988.50.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 135.15.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 23, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - SV
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About Balance of Trade — El Salvador
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -1,185.9 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -932.5 M. Before that (Mar 2026): -1,134.2 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.53) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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