The latest balance of trade data for SV, released on November 21, 2025, reveals a widening deficit of -$1.03 billion. This figure represents a 7.10% increase in the deficit compared to October’s -$961.70 million, according to the Sigmanomics database. The deficit remains above the 12-month average of approximately -$950 million, signaling persistent external imbalances.

Drivers this month

• Rising import costs due to elevated global commodity prices contributed approximately $45 million to the deficit expansion.
• Export volumes declined marginally by 1.50%, reflecting weaker demand from key trading partners amid geopolitical tensions.
• Energy imports surged by 8%, exacerbating the trade gap.

Policy pulse

Monetary policy remains restrictive, with the central bank maintaining elevated interest rates to curb inflation. This stance has tempered domestic demand but has not yet improved the trade balance. Fiscal policy continues to focus on deficit reduction, limiting government spending growth, which may dampen import demand further in coming months.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The SV currency depreciated 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over external financing needs. Short-term government bond yields rose by 5 basis points, signaling increased risk premiums.

The balance of trade deficit is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting SV’s external sector health. The November 2025 reading of -$1.03 billion contrasts with the previous year’s November 2024 deficit of -$893.50 million, marking a 15.20% year-on-year deterioration. This trend underscores ongoing structural challenges in export competitiveness and import reliance.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

SV’s central bank has kept policy rates at 5.25% since mid-2025, aiming to anchor inflation expectations. However, tighter financial conditions have yet to translate into a narrower trade deficit, partly due to inelastic import demand for energy and capital goods.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal consolidation efforts have restrained public spending growth to 1.80% year-on-year, down from 3.50% in 2024. This has helped moderate import-driven demand but has not offset external pressures fully.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Heightened geopolitical tensions in SV’s main export markets have disrupted supply chains and dampened export orders. Additionally, commodity price volatility, especially in oil and metals, has increased import costs, contributing to the trade deficit expansion.

Drivers this month

• Energy imports increased by 8%, adding $30 million to the deficit.
• Non-energy imports rose 3%, driven by machinery and intermediate goods.
• Export volumes declined 1.50%, particularly in manufactured goods and agricultural products.

Policy pulse

The central bank’s restrictive stance has limited domestic demand growth, but external factors have outweighed these effects. The trade deficit remains above the central bank’s comfort zone, suggesting further policy calibration may be needed.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The SV currency weakened 0.30% against the USD, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting market concerns about external financing and trade sustainability.

Looking ahead, SV’s balance of trade trajectory depends on several factors, including global demand, commodity prices, and domestic policy responses. We outline three scenarios:

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Global commodity prices stabilize or decline, reducing import costs.
• Export demand recovers due to easing geopolitical tensions.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting export sectors.
• Trade deficit narrows to around -$850 million by mid-2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Commodity prices remain elevated but volatile.
• Export growth remains sluggish amid moderate geopolitical risks.
• Monetary tightening continues, restraining domestic demand.
• Trade deficit hovers near current levels, around -$1.00 billion through 2026.

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Commodity prices spike further due to supply disruptions.
• Geopolitical tensions escalate, further dampening exports.
• Financial conditions tighten sharply, increasing import costs.
• Trade deficit widens beyond -$1.20 billion, pressuring currency and reserves.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

SV’s persistent trade deficits reflect structural challenges, including limited export diversification and high import dependence for energy and capital goods. Addressing these will require sustained policy focus on competitiveness, innovation, and trade partnerships.

SV’s November 2025 balance of trade data underscores ongoing external vulnerabilities amid a complex global environment. While monetary and fiscal policies aim to stabilize the external position, external shocks and structural constraints continue to weigh on trade balances. Market reactions suggest cautious sentiment, with currency depreciation and rising bond yields signaling risk concerns. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act to support growth while managing external imbalances.

Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade

The balance of trade is a critical indicator for several markets. Currency pairs involving SV’s currency typically react to trade data due to implications for external financing and economic growth. Similarly, equity markets with export exposure and government bonds sensitive to fiscal and external risks also respond.

• SVUSD – The primary currency pair, sensitive to trade balance shifts.
• SVEX – SV’s export-heavy equity index, reflecting trade-driven earnings.
• IMPC – Import-dependent industrial conglomerate, impacted by import cost changes.
• BTCUSD – A global risk sentiment barometer, often moving with macro shocks.
• EURUSD – A major currency pair influencing global trade flows and risk appetite.

FAQs

What is the current balance of trade for SV?

The November 2025 balance of trade deficit for SV stands at -$1.03 billion, up from -$961.70 million in October.

How does the balance of trade affect SV’s economy?

A widening trade deficit can pressure the currency, increase external debt needs, and signal competitiveness challenges.

What are the key risks to the trade balance outlook?

Risks include commodity price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in global demand impacting exports and imports.

Takeaway: SV’s trade deficit widening in November 2025 highlights persistent external vulnerabilities amid global uncertainties. Policy responses and external conditions will be critical to stabilizing the external position in 2026.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/21/25