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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
El SalvadorEl Salvador Producer Price Index YoY fell to 3.42% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
El Salvador Producer Price Index YoY fell to 3.42% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.1% from August's 3.52% reading. The reading missed the 3.9% consensus by 0.48%. Producer Price Index YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 3.53%, vs 2.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 87th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.42
Actual
3.9
Consensus
3.52
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.33 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.92
Actual: 3.42
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (El Salvador) was reported at 3.42% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.9% by 0.48%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.52%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.32%, ranging from 1.18% to 3.54% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.49%, up from the prior three at 2.52%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.99%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.63%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.34%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 11, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - SV
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About Producer Price Index YoY — El Salvador
DEFINITION
SV's Producer Price Index YoY came in at 3.420000% for September, missing the 3.900000% estimate. This marks a decline from August's 3.520000%, indicating a slight easing in producer inflation pressures. Market focus now shifts to upcoming inflation data and central bank commentary for further guidance. Updated 10/12/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3.42 %, consensus 3.9 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 3.52 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 3.54 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.58) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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