Thailand Consumer Confidence Rises to 53.20 in December 2025: A Data-Driven Outlook
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The latest Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for Thailand, released on December 4, 2025, registered at 53.20, up from 51.90 in November and exceeding the consensus estimate of 52.30, according to the Sigmanomics database. This marks the highest reading since August 2025 and signals a gradual rebound in household sentiment after a dip to 50.10 in September.
Drivers this month
- Improved labor market conditions with unemployment steady at 1.20%
- Moderation in inflation from 3.80% YoY in October to 3.40% in November
- Government stimulus measures supporting consumer spending
- Stable energy prices reducing cost-of-living pressures
Policy pulse
The Bank of Thailand has maintained its policy rate at 1.75%, balancing inflation containment with growth support. The current CCI reading aligns with the central bank’s inflation target range of 2-3%, suggesting room for a steady monetary stance in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The THB/USD currency pair strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting improved investor confidence. The SET Index rose 0.50%, while 2-year government bond yields edged up 5 basis points, signaling moderate risk appetite.
Thailand’s consumer confidence is closely linked to core macroeconomic indicators. Recent GDP growth estimates for Q3 2025 stood at 3.10% YoY, supported by robust domestic consumption, which accounts for roughly 55% of GDP. Inflation has moderated from a peak of 5.20% in early 2025 to 3.40% in November, easing pressure on real incomes.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of Thailand’s cautious approach has kept the policy rate steady at 1.75% since September. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with credit growth at 6.20% YoY and stable lending rates. The central bank’s forward guidance emphasizes inflation control without stifling growth.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus continues to underpin consumer spending. The government’s 2025 budget includes THB 150 billion in targeted subsidies and infrastructure investments. The fiscal deficit is projected at 3.80% of GDP, slightly above the 3.50% target but manageable given low borrowing costs.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Thailand faces risks from global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region. Export growth slowed to 2.50% YoY in Q3 2025, reflecting weaker demand from China and Europe. These factors could dampen consumer sentiment if prolonged.
This chart highlights a clear upward momentum in consumer confidence after a mid-year dip. The rebound suggests improving household optimism, likely driven by easing inflation and stable employment. However, the index remains below early 2025 highs, reflecting ongoing caution amid external uncertainties.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Following the release, the SET Index gained 0.50%, while the THB/USD pair appreciated 0.30%. Short-term bond yields rose modestly, indicating a balanced risk sentiment among investors.
Looking ahead, Thailand’s consumer confidence trajectory will hinge on several key factors. The baseline scenario (60% probability) assumes continued inflation moderation, stable employment, and steady fiscal support, pushing the CCI toward 54.50 by Q1 2026. This would support sustained domestic consumption and GDP growth near 3.50%.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Stronger export recovery driven by easing global tensions
- Accelerated fiscal stimulus boosting disposable incomes
- Monetary easing or rate cuts if inflation falls below 2.50%
- CCI surpasses 56, signaling robust consumer optimism
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Prolonged geopolitical risks disrupt supply chains
- Inflation spikes due to energy price shocks
- Monetary tightening to combat inflation pressures
- CCI falls below 50, indicating renewed consumer caution
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Thailand’s consumer confidence has shown resilience over the past decade, averaging around 55.00 in stable periods. Demographic shifts, rising middle-class incomes, and digital consumption trends support a gradual upward trend. However, structural challenges such as income inequality and reliance on exports remain key vulnerabilities.
In summary, Thailand’s December 2025 Consumer Confidence Index signals a cautiously optimistic consumer base. The rise to 53.20 reflects improving economic fundamentals but also underscores lingering risks from external shocks and policy uncertainties. Investors and policymakers should monitor inflation trends, geopolitical developments, and fiscal measures closely to gauge the sustainability of this recovery.
Balancing these factors, the outlook remains moderately positive, with upside potential if global conditions improve and downside risks if inflation or geopolitical tensions intensify.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence
Thailand’s consumer confidence readings have historically influenced equity, currency, and bond markets. The following tradable symbols are closely correlated with consumer sentiment shifts, reflecting domestic economic health and investor risk appetite.
- SET – Thailand’s main stock index, sensitive to domestic consumption trends.
- THBUSD – The Thai baht vs. US dollar, reflecting capital flows and economic confidence.
- PTT – Major energy company, impacted by consumer energy demand and prices.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often a risk sentiment barometer globally, including in emerging markets.
- USDCNH – USD vs. Chinese yuan offshore, relevant due to China’s trade links with Thailand.
Insight: Consumer Confidence vs. SET Index Since 2020
| Year | Average CCI | SET Index Year-End | Correlation Coefficient |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 48.50 | 1,400 | 0.68 |
| 2021 | 52.30 | 1,550 | 0.72 |
| 2022 | 54.10 | 1,620 | 0.75 |
| 2023 | 55.00 | 1,700 | 0.77 |
| 2024 | 54.80 | 1,680 | 0.74 |
| 2025 (YTD) | 53.00 | 1,710 | 0.70 |
The SET Index and Thailand’s Consumer Confidence Index have maintained a strong positive correlation (~0.70) since 2020, underscoring the importance of consumer sentiment as a leading indicator for equity market performance.
FAQs
- What is the current state of Thailand’s Consumer Confidence?
- The Consumer Confidence Index for December 2025 stands at 53.20, indicating moderate optimism among Thai consumers, up from 51.90 in November.
- How does consumer confidence impact Thailand’s economy?
- Consumer confidence influences spending behavior, which drives over half of Thailand’s GDP. Higher confidence typically supports stronger economic growth and market performance.
- What are the main risks to Thailand’s consumer sentiment?
- Key risks include inflation volatility, geopolitical tensions affecting trade, and potential monetary tightening that could dampen household spending.
Takeaway: Thailand’s consumer confidence is on a cautious upswing, reflecting improving economic fundamentals but shadowed by external risks. Monitoring inflation and geopolitical developments will be critical for sustaining this recovery.
SET – Thailand’s main stock index, sensitive to domestic consumption trends.
THBUSD – The Thai baht vs. US dollar, reflecting capital flows and economic confidence.
PTT – Major energy company, impacted by consumer energy demand and prices.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often a risk sentiment barometer globally, including in emerging markets.
USDCNH – USD vs. Chinese yuan offshore, relevant due to China’s trade links with Thailand.
The December 2025 CCI reading of 53.20 represents a 1.30-point increase from November’s 51.90 and is slightly above the 12-month average of 53.00. This upward trend reverses a three-month decline from the April peak of 56.70. The chart below illustrates the steady recovery trajectory since the September low of 50.10.
Compared to the same period last year, the index remains 2.50 points lower than December 2024’s 55.70, indicating that while confidence is improving, it has not fully rebounded to pre-slowdown levels.