Thailand CPI December 2025: Inflation Edges Higher Amid Mixed Signals
Table of Contents
The latest CPI release for Thailand, published on December 3, 2025, recorded a 0.66% MoM increase, slightly above the 0.57% consensus and up from 0.61% in November. This print continues a pattern of moderate inflation after a volatile first half of the year, where CPI ranged from -0.72% to 1.08% MoM. The 12-month average CPI growth now stands near 0.52%, reflecting a gradual normalization from earlier deflationary pressures.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs contributed 0.20 percentage points (pp), reflecting rising rental demand in urban centers.
- Food prices edged up 0.15 pp, influenced by seasonal supply constraints and higher import costs.
- Energy prices added 0.10 pp, supported by global oil price rebounds.
- Used car prices slightly declined, subtracting -0.05 pp, consistent with easing demand.
Policy pulse
Thailand’s CPI remains within the Bank of Thailand’s target range of 1-3%, though the upward surprise may prompt a cautious reassessment. The central bank has maintained a steady policy rate at 1.25% since mid-2025, emphasizing data dependency. Inflation expectations remain anchored, but upside risks from imported inflation and wage growth warrant close monitoring.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The THB/USD currency pair appreciated 0.15% in the first hour post-release, reflecting confidence in Thailand’s inflation control. Short-term government bond yields rose modestly by 5 basis points, signaling mild repricing of monetary policy expectations.
Thailand’s CPI trajectory must be viewed alongside key macroeconomic indicators. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 3.20% YoY, supported by robust exports and domestic consumption. Unemployment remains low at 1.80%, underpinning wage pressures. The current account surplus narrowed slightly to 1.50% of GDP, reflecting higher import costs amid global commodity price volatility.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Bank of Thailand’s policy stance remains accommodative but vigilant. Inflation’s recent uptick has not yet triggered tightening signals, but financial conditions have tightened slightly due to global rate hikes. Credit growth slowed to 4.10% YoY, indicating cautious lending amid external uncertainties.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal stimulus continues to support growth, with the government allocating 2.80% of GDP to infrastructure and social programs in 2025. The budget deficit narrowed to 3.10% of GDP, reflecting improved tax revenues and controlled spending. However, rising debt service costs could constrain future fiscal flexibility.
Energy prices, which had declined sharply in October (-0.72%), rebounded in November and December, contributing to the inflation uptick. Food inflation remains a persistent driver, with supply chain disruptions and currency depreciation influencing import prices. Shelter inflation’s steady rise points to structural housing demand pressures.
This chart highlights Thailand’s inflation trending upward after mid-year volatility. The steady rise in shelter and food prices suggests inflationary pressures are becoming more entrenched, warranting close monitoring by policymakers. The rebound in energy costs adds to upside risks, while used car price declines provide a modest counterbalance.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Thai government bond yields (TH10Y) rose 7 basis points, reflecting increased inflation risk premium. The THB strengthened modestly against the USD, signaling market confidence in Thailand’s macroeconomic management despite inflation pressures.
Looking ahead, Thailand’s inflation path will depend on several factors. Global commodity prices, especially oil, remain volatile amid geopolitical tensions. Domestic demand recovery is expected to continue but at a moderate pace, constrained by cautious consumer sentiment and external uncertainties.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Global commodity prices stabilize or decline, easing imported inflation.
- Strong fiscal stimulus boosts domestic demand without overheating.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting growth and stable inflation.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Inflation remains near current levels, with moderate upward drift due to shelter and food costs.
- Monetary policy stays on hold, with gradual tightening considered if inflation breaches 3%.
- Fiscal policy remains supportive but cautious amid rising debt concerns.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- External shocks push commodity prices higher, triggering inflation above 4% YoY.
- Wage pressures intensify, leading to second-round inflation effects.
- Central bank tightens aggressively, risking growth slowdown.
Overall, the balance of risks leans slightly to the upside, but the Bank of Thailand’s data-driven approach should mitigate abrupt policy shifts. Close monitoring of inflation expectations and wage dynamics will be critical.
Thailand’s December 2025 CPI print confirms a modest but persistent inflation uptick amid a complex macro backdrop. While inflation remains within manageable bounds, external shocks and structural pressures warrant vigilance. Monetary and fiscal policies appear well-calibrated to support growth without stoking runaway inflation. Financial markets have so far digested the data calmly, reflecting confidence in policy frameworks. Looking forward, inflation dynamics will hinge on commodity prices, geopolitical developments, and domestic demand resilience.
Investors and policymakers should prepare for a range of outcomes, balancing growth support with inflation control. The evolving global environment underscores the importance of flexible, data-responsive policy tools.
Selected tradable symbols relevant to Thailand’s CPI dynamics:
- SET – Thailand’s main stock index, sensitive to inflation and monetary policy shifts.
- USDTWD – Regional currency pair reflecting broader Asian currency trends impacting THB.
- THBUSD – Direct currency pair reacting to inflation and policy signals.
- BTCUSD – Crypto asset often viewed as inflation hedge, influencing risk sentiment.
- PTT – Major energy company, sensitive to oil price-driven inflation pressures.
Key Markets Likely to React to CPI
Thailand’s CPI data typically influences equity, currency, and bond markets. The SET index often reacts to inflation-driven policy expectations. The THBUSD pair is sensitive to inflation surprises affecting monetary policy. Regional currency pairs like USDTWD provide context on broader Asian currency trends. Energy stocks such as PTT track commodity price shifts impacting inflation. Finally, BTCUSD reflects risk sentiment and inflation hedging demand.
Insight: Thailand CPI vs. SET Index Since 2020
| Year | Average CPI YoY (%) | SET Annual Return (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.70 | -3.50 |
| 2021 | 1.20 | 14.80 |
| 2022 | 2.50 | 7.20 |
| 2023 | 2.10 | 5.90 |
| 2024 | 1.80 | 9.30 |
| 2025 (est.) | 2.60 | 6.50 |
This table shows a positive correlation between moderate inflation and equity returns, with the SET index generally performing well when inflation remains controlled. Sharp inflation spikes tend to coincide with market volatility.
FAQ
- What is the current inflation rate in Thailand?
- The December 2025 CPI for Thailand rose 0.66% month-on-month, with a year-on-year rate of 2.80%.
- How does Thailand’s CPI affect monetary policy?
- Inflation near the central bank’s target range influences the Bank of Thailand’s decisions on interest rates and financial conditions.
- What are the risks to Thailand’s inflation outlook?
- Risks include global commodity price shocks, wage pressures, and geopolitical uncertainties that could push inflation above target.
Key takeaway: Thailand’s inflation is rising moderately, requiring balanced policy responses amid external uncertainties and structural pressures.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The December CPI print of 0.66% MoM exceeds November’s 0.61% and surpasses the 12-month average of 0.52%. This marks the third consecutive month of inflation above the year-long average, signaling a mild upward trend. Compared to the volatile swings earlier in 2025, the current trajectory is more stable but tilted upward.
Year-on-year (YoY) inflation now stands at 2.80%, up from 2.50% in November and above the 2.30% average for the past year. This reflects sustained price pressures in key sectors such as housing and food, partially offset by subdued transportation costs.