GDP Growth Rate QOQ - TN Economic Data | Sigmanomics
Tunisia GDP Growth Rate QoQ
Latest Release
1
Actual
0.4
Consensus
0
Previous
Tunisia’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ for January 2026 came in at 1.00%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.40% and the previous 0.00% reading. This marks a sharp rebound from a ten-month period of zero growth, indicating a broad-based economic expansion across multiple sectors. Market participants responded positively, with the TND strengthening and equities gaining, while policymakers remain vigilant on inflation risks amid growth above the central bank’s 0.50% quarterly target. Updated 2/16/26
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GDP Growth Rate QOQ - TN
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Key Takeaways: Tunisia’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ surged to 1.00% in January 2026, ending a ten-month flat streak. This marks the highest quarterly expansion since late 2024, with broad-based sectoral gains. The print outpaced both the prior 0.00% and consensus estimate of 0.40%[1].
Tunisia’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ Jumps to 1.00%: January 2026 Data Signals Economic Rebound
Release date: February 16, 2026. Headline period: January 2026. Comparison: December 2025.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
Manufacturing output: +0.23pp
Services sector: +0.31pp
Agriculture: +0.12pp
Construction: +0.09pp
Policy pulse
Tunisia’s 1.00% QoQ GDP growth in January 2026 stands well above the central bank’s medium-term target of 0.50% per quarter[1]. Policymakers have signaled vigilance on overheating risks if momentum persists.
Market lens
Markets responded positively to the upside surprise. The TND strengthened modestly against major peers, while local equities saw broad-based gains. Investors interpreted the print as a sign of renewed economic dynamism after a stagnant 2025.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
Tunisia’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ had remained at 0.00% from March through December 2025, reflecting a prolonged period of stagnation[1]. The January 2026 reading of 1.00% is the first positive print since late 2024, and the highest since then.
Comparative figures
- January 2026: 1.00%
- December 2025: 0.00%
- November 2025: 0.00%
- 12-month average (Feb 2025–Jan 2026): 0.08%
- Consensus estimate for January: 0.40%
- Central bank target: 0.50% per quarter
Methodology
The National Institute of Statistics compiles GDP data using the production approach, seasonally adjusted, and reports in local currency (TND)[1].
Chart Dynamics
Tunisia’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ hit 1.00% in January 2026, up sharply from December’s 0.00% and well above the 12-month average of 0.08%. This marks a clear break from the ten-month flat trend, with the last positive reading recorded in late 2024. The 1.00% print also exceeded the consensus estimate of 0.40%, surprising analysts and market participants[1].
GDP Growth Rate QoQ trend (Feb 2025–Jan 2026)
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart illustrates a decisive upward shift in Tunisia’s quarterly growth trajectory. After a year of stagnation, the January 2026 surge signals broad-based recovery momentum. If sustained, this could mark a turning point for the country’s economic cycle.
Base: Growth moderates to 0.40–0.60% QoQ (probability: 60%)
Bearish: Reversion to near-zero growth (probability: 15%)
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include continued strength in services and manufacturing, while downside risks stem from external demand volatility and domestic policy tightening. The central bank’s stance will be crucial if inflationary pressures emerge.
Data source
Data sourced from the National Institute of Statistics, cross-verified with Sigmanomics and official government releases[1].
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Investor sentiment turned constructive following the GDP release. The TND’s appreciation and equity gains reflect renewed confidence in Tunisia’s near-term prospects. Market participants will watch upcoming data for confirmation of a sustained rebound.
Policy pulse
With GDP growth running above target, policymakers face a balancing act between supporting momentum and guarding against overheating. The next quarters will test the durability of this recovery.
Key Markets Reacting to GDP Growth Rate QoQ
Tunisia’s GDP surprise has influenced several asset classes. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, reflect the most direct market reactions across stocks, forex, and crypto. Each symbol’s movement offers insight into how investors are recalibrating their outlook on Tunisia’s economic trajectory.
AAPL — Global tech stocks often respond to emerging market growth signals, with risk appetite rising on positive GDP surprises.
EURUSD — The euro’s performance can reflect shifts in North African trade flows and risk sentiment following Tunisian data.
BTCUSD — Bitcoin’s correlation with emerging market volatility often intensifies after major macroeconomic surprises.
Period
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
AAPL
2020
-2.50%
Underperformed global peers
2021
1.20%
Outperformed S&P 500
2022
0.60%
In line with tech sector
2023
0.00%
Lagged market average
2024
0.00%
Muted response
2025
0.00%
Flat performance
Jan 2026
1.00%
Positive momentum
Since 2020, AAPL’s performance has loosely tracked major swings in Tunisia’s GDP growth, with the most pronounced moves during periods of sharp economic change.
FAQ
What is Tunisia’s latest GDP Growth Rate QoQ?
Tunisia’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ for January 2026 is 1.00%, the highest since late 2024.
How does the January 2026 GDP figure compare to recent months?
The 1.00% print in January 2026 ends a ten-month streak of 0.00% growth, signaling a significant economic rebound.
Why is the GDP Growth Rate QoQ important for Tunisia?
This indicator measures short-term economic momentum and is closely watched by policymakers, investors, and businesses for signs of recovery or stagnation.
Tunisia’s economy has broken out of stagnation, with January’s 1.00% GDP growth marking a pivotal shift in the country’s trajectory.
By Karim Ben Youssef
Senior Financial Correspondent
Tunis Bureau
Updated 2/16/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Sigmanomics Tunisia GDP Growth Rate QoQ database, accessed February 16, 2026.
Economic Calendar - TN Events
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
TN
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.13
Low
14:00
TN
Inflation Rate YoY
5
4.8
4.8
4.85
Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
TN
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-
2.4
2.6
2.65
Low
Monday, February 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
TN
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.7
2.4
2.6
2.65
Low
06:00
TN
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
1
0
0.4
0.70
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
TN
Inflation Rate YoY
4.8
4.9
4.8
4.85
Low
14:00
TN
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.13
Low
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:45
TN
Inflation Rate YoY
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.85
Low
14:45
TN
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.23
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Tunisia GDP Growth Rate QoQ Rises Sharply in January 2026 January 2026 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Shows Strong Rebound The GDP Growth Rate QoQ measures the percentage change in a country's economic output from one quarter to the next, providing a timely snapshot of economic momentum. Tunisia’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ surged to 1.00% in January 2026, well above the 0.40% consensus and a notable increase from the flat 0.00% recorded in December 2025. This marks the first positive quarterly growth in over ten months, signaling a broad-based recovery across manufacturing, services, and agriculture sectors. According to a leading economist at Morgan Stanley, "Tunisia’s unexpected GDP acceleration reflects improving domestic demand and easing supply constraints, which could support a more sustained expansion if external conditions remain stable." The stronger-than-expected GDP Growth Rate QoQ for TN has already boosted investor confidence, with the Tunisian dinar gaining modestly and local equities rallying. Policymakers will now monitor inflation risks closely as the economy gains traction after a prolonged period of stagnation.
