The November 2025 GDP growth rate for TN at 0.00% QoQ marks a sharp deceleration from the 1.90% growth recorded in August 2025. This stagnation interrupts a volatile pattern observed over the past year, where growth oscillated between contraction and expansion. The geographic scope remains focused on TN’s domestic economy, with temporal coverage emphasizing the last four quarters for trend analysis.

Drivers this month

• Manufacturing output stalled amid supply chain disruptions.
• Consumer spending weakened due to inflationary pressures.
• Export growth slowed, impacted by geopolitical tensions in key trading partners.

Policy pulse

The current zero-growth reading sits well below the central bank’s inflation-target-consistent growth rate of approximately 1.50% QoQ. Monetary policy remains accommodative but cautious, with the central bank signaling no immediate rate hikes despite inflation concerns.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The TN currency (TND) depreciated 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged up 12 basis points, reflecting increased risk premiums.

Core macroeconomic indicators reveal a mixed picture. Inflation remains elevated at 6.20% year-on-year, constraining real income growth. Unemployment ticked up slightly to 7.10%, reflecting labor market softness. Industrial production contracted 0.30% QoQ, while retail sales growth slowed to 0.50% QoQ.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The central bank’s policy rate remains at 4.25%, unchanged since mid-2025. Financial conditions have tightened modestly due to rising global interest rates and domestic credit risk concerns. Lending growth slowed to 2.10% YoY, signaling cautious bank behavior.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains expansionary with a 3.80% of GDP deficit target for 2025. Recent government spending focused on infrastructure and social programs, but revenue shortfalls due to slower growth have pressured the budget balance.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: TN’s 2-year bond yields rose sharply, reflecting increased risk aversion. The TND weakened, while equity markets showed mixed responses, with industrial stocks underperforming.

Looking ahead, three scenarios frame TN’s growth prospects:

• Bullish (30% probability): External shocks ease, supply chains normalize, and fiscal stimulus boosts demand, lifting QoQ growth to 1.50%-2.00% in early 2026.
• Base (50% probability): Growth remains subdued around 0.50%-1.00% QoQ, with inflation and geopolitical risks continuing to weigh.
• Bearish (20% probability): Prolonged external shocks and tighter financial conditions push growth into contraction territory (-0.50% QoQ or worse).

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Long-term challenges include demographic shifts, productivity stagnation, and reliance on volatile commodity exports. Structural reforms targeting diversification and innovation remain critical to sustainable growth.

The zero-growth print in November 2025 signals a pause in TN’s economic expansion, reflecting both cyclical and structural pressures. Policymakers face a delicate balance between supporting growth and managing inflation. Financial markets are pricing in increased uncertainty, while external geopolitical risks remain a wildcard. Close monitoring of upcoming data releases and policy responses will be essential to gauge the trajectory for 2026.

Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate QoQ

GDP growth rates strongly influence TN’s financial markets, especially currency, bond, and equity sectors. The following tradable symbols historically track TN’s economic momentum and market sentiment:

• TSLA – Sensitive to global growth trends impacting industrial demand.
• USDTND – Directly reflects TN currency fluctuations against the USD.
• BTCUSD – Often reacts to risk sentiment shifts linked to macroeconomic data.
• AAPL – Proxy for global consumer demand cycles affecting TN exports.
• EURTND – Tracks TN’s trade-weighted currency movements versus the Eurozone.

FAQs

What does the latest TN GDP Growth Rate QoQ indicate?

The 0.00% growth rate indicates a halt in economic expansion, signaling potential risks of stagnation or slowdown.

How does this GDP reading compare historically?

It is the lowest in the past year, reversing gains from the 1.90% growth seen in August 2025 and below the 12-month average of 0.66%.

What are the main risks affecting TN’s GDP growth?

Key risks include supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, and tighter financial conditions.

Takeaway: TN’s zero GDP growth in November 2025 underscores a fragile economic recovery amid persistent headwinds. Policy agility and external developments will shape the near-term outlook.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.