Latest GDP Growth Rate YoY for Tunisia: November 2025 Analysis
The latest GDP growth rate YoY for Tunisia (TN) was released on November 17, 2025, showing a 2.40% increase. This figure falls short of the 3.40% estimate and marks a slowdown from the previous 3.20% reading in August 2025. Drawing on data from the Sigmanomics database, this report compares recent trends with historical performance and assesses the broader macroeconomic implications for Tunisia’s economy amid evolving domestic and global conditions.
Table of Contents
The November 2025 GDP growth rate of 2.40% YoY for Tunisia signals a moderate expansion but below market expectations. This marks a deceleration from the 3.20% growth recorded in August 2025 and contrasts with the 1.60% average growth seen in mid-2025. Over the past two years, Tunisia’s GDP growth has fluctuated between contraction and modest recovery, reflecting ongoing structural challenges and external pressures.
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing output slowed, contributing -0.30 percentage points (pp) to growth.
- Agricultural sector rebounded, adding 0.40 pp.
- Services sector growth remained steady, contributing 1.20 pp.
- Export demand weakened amid global uncertainties, subtracting -0.50 pp.
Policy pulse
The current growth rate sits below the Central Bank of Tunisia’s inflation-adjusted target range of 3.00%–3.50%, signaling potential monetary policy tightening to curb inflationary pressures. The central bank’s recent rate hikes have begun to temper credit growth, impacting investment.
Market lens
Immediately after the GDP release, the Tunisian dinar (TND) depreciated by 0.40% against the USD, reflecting investor caution. Short-term government bond yields rose by 15 basis points, indicating increased risk premiums. Equity markets showed muted reaction, with the Tunindex index down 0.30% in early trading.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the GDP growth slowdown. Inflation remains elevated at 8.70% YoY as of October 2025, pressuring real incomes and consumption. Unemployment stands at 15.20%, unchanged from the previous quarter, constraining domestic demand. Tunisia’s current account deficit widened to 5.10% of GDP, driven by weaker exports and higher import costs.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Central Bank of Tunisia has raised its policy rate by 125 basis points since early 2025 to combat inflation. Credit growth slowed to 4.50% YoY from 6.80% six months ago, reflecting tighter financial conditions. Banking sector liquidity remains adequate but cautious lending limits investment expansion.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal deficits remain elevated at 7.30% of GDP, with public debt reaching 85% of GDP. The government has prioritized social spending and subsidies, limiting fiscal space for growth-enhancing investments. Recent IMF negotiations aim to secure additional funding contingent on structural reforms.
Historical data from the Sigmanomics database shows Tunisia’s GDP growth was negative at -0.20% in November 2023 and February 2024, before gradually improving to 1.80% in November 2024 and peaking at 3.20% in August 2025. The recent slowdown suggests that the recovery is losing momentum amid tighter monetary policy and external shocks.
This chart indicates Tunisia’s growth is trending downward after a brief acceleration, signaling caution for policymakers. The economy remains vulnerable to external demand shocks and domestic structural constraints.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Tunisian dinar weakened 0.40% post-release, reflecting investor concerns over slower growth. Bond yields rose, signaling risk repricing. Equity markets showed minor declines amid cautious sentiment.
Looking ahead, Tunisia’s GDP growth faces mixed prospects. The baseline scenario forecasts 2.50% growth in 2026, assuming moderate inflation and gradual fiscal consolidation. Bullish outcomes (30% probability) could see growth near 3.50% if reforms accelerate, external demand strengthens, and investment rebounds. Conversely, a bearish scenario (25% probability) with growth below 1.50% could arise from prolonged geopolitical tensions, worsening fiscal deficits, or global recession risks.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Regional instability and global commodity price volatility remain key risks. Tunisia’s export markets in Europe face slowdown risks, while energy import costs could rise, pressuring the trade balance.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Long-term growth is constrained by high unemployment, limited diversification, and governance challenges. Structural reforms in labor markets, education, and investment climate are critical to unlocking sustainable growth above 4% annually.
In summary, Tunisia’s latest GDP growth rate of 2.40% YoY reflects a slowdown from recent highs but remains positive compared to the past two years. Monetary tightening and fiscal constraints weigh on near-term growth, while external risks add uncertainty. Structural reforms and improved external conditions are essential for a durable recovery. Market reactions underscore cautious investor sentiment amid these challenges.
Key Markets Likely to React to GDP Growth Rate YoY
Tunisia’s GDP growth rate influences multiple asset classes, particularly local currency, equity, and bond markets. The following symbols historically track economic momentum and investor sentiment in Tunisia:
- TNDTUSD – The Tunisian dinar to USD pair reacts sharply to growth data, reflecting currency risk and capital flows.
- TUNINDEX – Tunisia’s main equity index, sensitive to economic growth and corporate earnings.
- ATTI – A leading Tunisian bank stock, correlated with credit conditions and economic activity.
- BTCTND – Bitcoin priced in TND, reflecting alternative asset demand amid economic uncertainty.
- EURTND – Euro to Tunisian dinar, tracking trade and capital flows with Europe.
Indicator vs. TNDTUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, Tunisia’s GDP growth rate and the TNDTUSD exchange rate have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of GDP contraction coincide with TND depreciation against the USD, reflecting capital outflows and investor risk aversion. The recent slowdown to 2.40% growth aligns with a 0.40% TND depreciation post-release, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to economic fundamentals.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What does the latest GDP Growth Rate YoY indicate for Tunisia?
- The 2.40% growth rate indicates moderate economic expansion but slower than expected, highlighting emerging headwinds in Tunisia’s recovery.
- How does Tunisia’s GDP growth affect its currency?
- GDP growth influences investor confidence and capital flows, with slower growth often leading to depreciation of the Tunisian dinar against major currencies.
- What are the main risks to Tunisia’s economic outlook?
- Key risks include high inflation, fiscal deficits, geopolitical tensions, and external demand shocks that could slow growth further.
Takeaway: Tunisia’s GDP growth slowdown to 2.40% YoY signals caution amid tightening policies and external risks, underscoring the urgent need for structural reforms to sustain recovery.
The 2.40% GDP growth rate in November 2025 is down from 3.20% in August and above the 12-month average of 1.60%. This reflects a reversal from the strong summer rebound but remains positive compared to the contraction phases in late 2023 and early 2024.
Key figure: The 0.80 percentage point drop from August to November highlights emerging headwinds in Tunisia’s economic recovery.