November’s inflation rate of 0.70% MoM marks a notable acceleration from October’s 0.60% and is well above the six-month average of 0.42%. This uptick reflects persistent price pressures in Tunisia’s economy, driven by both domestic factors and external shocks. The inflation rate remains elevated compared to the subdued 0.30% readings seen in mid-2025, signaling a shift in momentum.

Drivers this month

• Shelter and utilities costs contributed approximately 0.25 percentage points (pp) to inflation.
• Food prices rose sharply, adding 0.20 pp, reflecting supply chain disruptions.
• Energy costs increased by 0.15 pp amid global oil price volatility.
• Transport and used car prices added 0.10 pp, partially offset by a slight decline in clothing prices (-0.05 pp).

Policy pulse

The current inflation rate exceeds the Central Bank of Tunisia’s target range of 3-5% annualized, suggesting continued pressure on monetary authorities to maintain or tighten policy. The MoM acceleration indicates that inflationary forces are not yet abating, complicating the bank’s balancing act between growth support and price stability.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Tunisian dinar (TND) weakened by 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 12 basis points, reflecting heightened inflation risk premiums. Breakeven inflation rates in local inflation-linked bonds also edged higher, signaling market expectations of sustained inflation.

Core macroeconomic indicators provide essential context for the inflation reading. Tunisia’s GDP growth slowed to an annualized 2.10% in Q3 2025, down from 2.70% in Q2, reflecting weaker domestic demand. Unemployment remains elevated at 15.40%, limiting wage-driven inflation but also constraining consumer spending power.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Central Bank of Tunisia has held its key policy rate steady at 7.50% since August 2025, citing inflation risks and currency pressures. Financial conditions have tightened slightly, with credit growth slowing to 4.20% YoY from 5.10% earlier in the year. The elevated inflation reading may prompt reconsideration of rate policy in the near term.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal deficits remain a concern, with the government running a 6.30% of GDP shortfall in the first nine months of 2025. Subsidy reforms and tax adjustments are underway but have yet to significantly ease inflationary pressures. Continued fiscal consolidation is critical to anchoring inflation expectations.

Drivers this month

• Energy price volatility linked to global oil market disruptions.
• Supply chain bottlenecks affecting food and transport sectors.
• Currency depreciation increasing import costs.

Policy pulse

The acceleration in inflation challenges the Central Bank’s current stance. If inflation persists above 0.60% MoM, a rate hike of 25-50 basis points in the December meeting becomes more probable.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The TND/USD spot rate fell from 3.05 to 3.06 post-release, while the 2-year sovereign yield jumped from 8.20% to 8.32%, reflecting increased inflation risk pricing.

Looking ahead, inflation in Tunisia faces multiple influences. The baseline scenario projects inflation stabilizing around 0.60-0.70% MoM over the next quarter, supported by moderate energy prices and gradual fiscal reforms. This scenario carries a 50% probability.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global energy prices decline sharply, easing cost-push inflation.
• Successful subsidy reforms reduce consumer price pressures.
• Currency stabilizes, lowering import costs.
• Inflation falls below 0.40% MoM by Q1 2026.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains further.
• Currency depreciation accelerates, pushing import prices higher.
• Fiscal slippage leads to increased government borrowing and inflation expectations.
• Inflation rises above 0.90% MoM, risking wage-price spirals.

Risks and opportunities

Upside risks include external shocks such as oil price spikes or regional instability. Downside risks hinge on effective policy coordination and global commodity price stabilization. Monitoring inflation expectations and wage dynamics will be critical for policymakers.

November’s inflation rate MoM reading of 0.70% for Tunisia signals a resurgence of price pressures after a period of relative calm. The data underscores the challenges facing monetary and fiscal authorities in balancing growth and price stability amid external uncertainties. Market reactions reflect heightened inflation risk, with currency depreciation and rising bond yields. Forward-looking scenarios emphasize the importance of policy agility and external developments in shaping Tunisia’s inflation trajectory through 2026.

Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM

Inflation data in Tunisia typically influences several key markets, including local currency pairs, government bonds, and select equities sensitive to inflation and interest rates. The following symbols historically track inflation trends and market sentiment:

• TNDUSD – The Tunisian dinar’s exchange rate against the US dollar reacts directly to inflation and monetary policy shifts.
• BTK – A major Tunisian bank stock sensitive to interest rate changes and inflation expectations.
• ETAP – Tunisia’s national oil company, impacted by energy price fluctuations influencing inflation.
• BTCTND – Bitcoin priced in Tunisian dinar, reflecting currency depreciation and inflation hedging demand.
• EURTND – Euro to Tunisian dinar pair, sensitive to regional trade and inflation dynamics.

FAQs

What is the current inflation rate MoM for Tunisia?

The latest inflation rate MoM for Tunisia is 0.70% as of November 2025.

How does this inflation reading compare historically?

This is the highest monthly inflation rate since April 2025 and above the six-month average of 0.42%.

What are the main drivers of inflation in Tunisia?

Key drivers include rising energy and food prices, currency depreciation, and supply chain disruptions.

Key takeaway: Tunisia’s inflation rate acceleration to 0.70% MoM signals persistent price pressures that will test monetary and fiscal policy responses amid external uncertainties.