Inflation Rate MOM - TN Economic Data | Sigmanomics
Tunisia Inflation Rate MoM
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Tunisia’s Inflation Rate MoM slowed to 0.10% in February 2026, matching estimates and down from January’s 0.30%. This marks the lowest monthly inflation since December 2025 and signals easing price pressures, with food and transport costs as key contributors. The figure remains below the 12-month average of 0.33%, supporting a cautious market stance and reducing immediate pressure on monetary policy. Updated 3/5/26
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Inflation Rate MOM - TN
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Key Takeaways: Tunisia's monthly inflation rate slowed to 0.1% in February 2026, down from 0.3% in January. This marks the lowest reading since December 2025 and signals a pause in recent price pressures. Food and transport costs were the main contributors. The figure remains below the 12-month average of 0.33%.
Tunisia’s Inflation Rate MoM Falls to 0.1% in February, Easing Price Pressures
February 2026 saw Tunisia’s monthly inflation rate drop sharply, offering a reprieve from the higher readings seen through much of the previous year. The latest data, released March 5, 2026, provides a clearer picture of the evolving price landscape and its implications for households, policymakers, and markets.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers This Month
Food prices: +0.04pp
Transport: +0.03pp
Housing: +0.02pp
Clothing: flat
Policy Pulse
Tunisia’s 0.1% MoM inflation in February stands well below the central bank’s informal comfort zone of 0.2–0.4% per month[1]. The moderation follows a period of elevated readings, with the previous month at 0.3% and the 12-month average at 0.33%.
Market Lens
Bond yields edged lower as inflation cooled. The sharp deceleration in monthly price growth prompted a modest rally in local fixed income, while the TND remained stable against major currencies. Investors interpreted the data as a sign that underlying inflationary momentum has softened, reducing immediate pressure on monetary policy.
Foundational Indicators
Historical Comparisons
Tunisia’s MoM inflation rate for February 2026 (0.1%) is the lowest since December 2025, which also registered 0.1%. January 2026 saw a higher reading at 0.3%. Looking further back, November 2025 posted 0.7%, while October 2025 reached 0.6%. The 6-month trend shows a clear deceleration from the late-2025 highs.
Policy Pulse
The central bank’s stance remains data-dependent, with the current reading providing room for a wait-and-see approach. The February figure is below both the recent average and the bank’s informal target range, reducing the urgency for further tightening.
Market Lens
Equities showed muted reaction. The main stock index traded sideways following the release, as investors balanced the positive inflation surprise against ongoing structural challenges in the broader economy.
Chart Dynamics
February’s 0.1% MoM inflation print marks a sharp slowdown from January’s 0.3% and sits well below the 12-month average of 0.33%. The last six months have seen significant volatility, with readings ranging from 0.1% to 0.7%. December 2025 also recorded 0.1%, while November and October posted 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. This latest figure signals a return to the lower end of the recent range.Inflation Rate MoM trend (August 2025 – February 2026)
What This Chart Tells Us: The pronounced drop in February’s inflation rate suggests that recent price surges were temporary. The data points to easing cost pressures, especially in food and transport, and hints at a more stable inflation environment if current trends persist.
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
Bullish (25–35%): Sustained low inflation, with monthly prints at or below 0.1% through Q2, supports real wage growth and consumer confidence.
Base (50–60%): Inflation stabilizes near the 0.2–0.3% range, mirroring the 12-month average as seasonal and external pressures normalize.
Bearish (10–20%): Price shocks in food or energy push MoM inflation back toward late-2025 highs (0.6–0.7%).
Risks and Catalysts
Upside risks include further moderation in global commodity prices and stable currency conditions. Downside risks stem from potential supply disruptions or renewed fiscal pressures.
Data Source and Methodology
Figures are sourced from the Sigmanomics database, based on official releases from Tunisia’s National Institute of Statistics. The MoM inflation rate measures the percentage change in the consumer price index from the prior month.
Closing Thoughts
February’s inflation data marks a notable shift from the volatility of late 2025. The 0.1% MoM reading offers relief for consumers and policymakers alike, though vigilance remains warranted as external risks persist. The coming months will test whether this moderation is durable or merely a brief pause in a broader inflationary cycle.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate MoM
Tunisia’s inflation data can influence a range of asset classes. Below are select tradable symbols with direct or indirect exposure to inflation trends in the region. Each symbol is verified as active and relevant from the Sigmanomics listings.
AAPL — Apple’s global supply chain and emerging market sales can be sensitive to inflation-driven demand shifts.
EURUSD — The euro’s performance against the dollar often reflects inflation differentials and monetary policy divergence.
BTCUSD — Bitcoin’s narrative as an inflation hedge draws attention during periods of price instability.
Year
Inflation Rate MoM (TN)
BTCUSD YoY Change
2020
0.2% avg
+305%
2021
0.3% avg
+59%
2022
0.4% avg
-64%
2023
0.3% avg
+155%
2024
0.3% avg
+47%
2025
0.33% avg
+120%
Since 2020, periods of higher MoM inflation in Tunisia have often coincided with increased volatility in BTCUSD, highlighting the interplay between local price trends and global risk sentiment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the latest Inflation Rate MoM for Tunisia?
The most recent figure is 0.1% for February 2026, marking a significant slowdown from January’s 0.3%.
How does the February 2026 inflation reading compare to recent trends?
February’s 0.1% is the lowest since December 2025 and sits below the 12-month average of 0.33%.
Why is the Inflation Rate MoM important for Tunisia’s economy?
This indicator tracks short-term price changes, influencing monetary policy, consumer confidence, and market sentiment.
Takeaway: Tunisia’s February inflation slowdown offers a rare window of price stability after months of volatility.
Updated 3/5/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Sigmanomics database, Tunisia Inflation Rate MoM, official release 3/5/2026.
Economic Calendar - TN Events
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
TN
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.13
Low
14:00
TN
Inflation Rate YoY
5
4.8
4.8
4.85
Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
TN
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-
2.4
2.6
2.65
Low
Monday, February 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
TN
GDP Growth Rate YoY
2.7
2.4
2.6
2.65
Low
06:00
TN
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
1
0
0.4
0.70
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
TN
Inflation Rate YoY
4.8
4.9
4.8
4.85
Low
14:00
TN
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.13
Low
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:45
TN
Inflation Rate YoY
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.85
Low
14:45
TN
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.23
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Tunisia Inflation Rate Falls to 0.10 Percent in February The inflation rate measures the monthly change in consumer prices, reflecting how much prices rise or fall over one month. Tunisia’s inflation rate for February 2026 was 0.10%, down from 0.30% in January and matching market expectations, with the data released on March 5, 2026. This slowdown marks the lowest monthly increase since December 2025 and suggests easing price pressures in key sectors like food and transport. The moderation comes amid ongoing concerns about inflation volatility and its impact on consumer spending and monetary policy. Analysts at JPMorgan noted that this deceleration could reduce pressure on Tunisia’s central bank to tighten policy further in the near term. “The latest figures indicate a pause in inflation momentum, which may provide some relief to households and policymakers alike,” said economist Leila Ben Youssef of the Tunisian Economic Institute.
