Inflation Rate YoY in Tunisia: November 2025 Analysis and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Tunisia’s inflation rate eased to 4.90% YoY in November 2025, slightly below the 5.00% estimate and previous month’s reading. This marks a continued downward trend from a peak of 6.00% in February 2025. Core inflation pressures remain moderate amid cautious monetary policy and fiscal tightening. External shocks and geopolitical risks pose downside risks, while gradual economic recovery supports a base-case scenario of stable inflation near the central bank’s target.
Table of Contents
The latest inflation data for Tunisia (TN) from the Sigmanomics database shows a YoY inflation rate of 4.90% as of November 5, 2025. This figure is a modest decline from the 5.00% recorded in October and below the market consensus estimate of 5.00%. Over the past nine months, inflation has steadily declined from a high of 6.00% in February 2025, reflecting easing price pressures amid tighter monetary and fiscal policies.
Geographic & Temporal Scope
This report focuses on Tunisia’s inflation rate on a year-over-year basis, covering monthly releases from February to November 2025. The data is sourced exclusively from the Sigmanomics database, ensuring consistency and accuracy in tracking Tunisia’s inflation trajectory.
Core Macroeconomic Indicators
Alongside inflation, Tunisia’s GDP growth has shown tentative signs of recovery, with Q3 2025 growth estimated at 2.10% YoY. Unemployment remains elevated at 15.30%, while the current account deficit narrowed slightly to 4.20% of GDP in Q3. These indicators frame the inflation environment within a broader macroeconomic context of moderate growth and structural challenges.
Inflation’s recent moderation aligns with Tunisia’s monetary and fiscal tightening efforts. The Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) has maintained its key policy rate at 7.25% since September 2025, aiming to anchor inflation expectations near its 4% target. Meanwhile, government budget deficits have narrowed to 6.50% of GDP in FY2025, down from 7.80% in FY2024, reflecting improved revenue collection and expenditure controls.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
- BCT policy rate steady at 7.25% since September 2025
- Inflation expectations anchored near 4% target
- Credit growth slowed to 3.40% YoY, indicating tighter financial conditions
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
- Fiscal deficit narrowed to 6.50% of GDP in FY2025
- Public debt remains high at 78% of GDP but stable
- Subsidy reforms continue to reduce inflationary pressures
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity price volatility and regional geopolitical tensions remain key risks. Tunisia’s reliance on energy imports exposes it to oil price shocks. Additionally, political uncertainty in neighboring Libya and ongoing Mediterranean migration issues could disrupt trade and investor confidence.
Drivers this month
- Shelter and utilities contributed 0.12 pp to inflation
- Food prices eased, subtracting -0.08 pp
- Transportation costs declined by -0.05 pp
- Energy prices stable, no net contribution
Policy pulse
The inflation rate remains slightly above the Central Bank’s 4% target but within a manageable range. The BCT’s steady policy stance appears justified, balancing growth concerns with inflation control. Market expectations suggest no immediate rate hikes but vigilance remains high.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Tunisian dinar (TND) appreciated 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting relief at the lower-than-expected inflation. Sovereign bond yields declined by 5 basis points, signaling reduced inflation risk premium.
This chart highlights a clear downward trend in inflation over the past nine months, reversing the earlier acceleration seen in early 2025. The moderation suggests that Tunisia’s policy mix is gradually stabilizing prices, though vigilance is required given external uncertainties.
Looking ahead, Tunisia’s inflation trajectory will hinge on several factors. The base-case scenario (60% probability) forecasts inflation stabilizing around 4.50%–5.00% through mid-2026, supported by continued fiscal discipline and moderate monetary policy. A bullish scenario (20% probability) envisages inflation falling below 4%, driven by stronger global commodity price declines and improved domestic productivity. Conversely, a bearish scenario (20% probability) risks inflation rising above 5.50% if geopolitical tensions escalate or subsidy reforms stall.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Long-term inflation in Tunisia has averaged around 5.20% over the past decade, reflecting structural rigidities such as labor market inflexibility and subsidy dependence. Recent reforms aim to address these issues, but progress remains gradual. Demographic pressures and urbanization may also influence future inflation dynamics.
Financial Markets & Sentiment
Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. The TND’s recent appreciation and stable bond yields suggest confidence in Tunisia’s macroeconomic management. However, external shocks and political risks could quickly alter market perceptions, underscoring the need for continued policy vigilance.
In summary, Tunisia’s inflation rate of 4.90% YoY in November 2025 signals a positive trend toward price stability. While challenges remain, particularly from external shocks and structural constraints, the current policy framework appears effective in containing inflationary pressures. Market reactions confirm confidence but also highlight sensitivity to future developments. Policymakers must balance growth support with inflation control to sustain this momentum.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Inflation data in Tunisia typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to macroeconomic shifts. Key tradable symbols with historical correlations include the Tunisian dinar (TND/USD), sovereign bonds, and select stocks and cryptocurrencies linked to inflation trends.
- TNDUSD – The primary currency pair reacts swiftly to inflation surprises, reflecting monetary policy expectations.
- TSLA – While a US stock, Tesla’s sensitivity to commodity prices and inflation expectations makes it a proxy for global inflation sentiment.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often moves inversely to inflation fears, acting as a digital hedge.
- AAPL – Apple’s stock price reflects consumer spending power, which inflation impacts directly.
- EURUSD – The euro-dollar pair is sensitive to regional inflation trends and monetary policy shifts affecting Tunisia’s trade partners.
Inflation Rate YoY vs. TNDUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, Tunisia’s inflation rate and the TND/USD exchange rate have shown a moderate inverse correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with TND depreciation, reflecting reduced purchasing power and monetary tightening. The recent decline in inflation from 6.00% to 4.90% has coincided with a 3% appreciation in TND/USD, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to inflation dynamics.
| Year | Inflation Rate YoY (%) | TND/USD Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5.50 | -2.10 |
| 2021 | 6.20 | -3.50 |
| 2022 | 5.80 | -1.80 |
| 2023 | 5.30 | 0.50 |
| 2024 | 5.10 | 1.20 |
| 2025 (Nov) | 4.90 | 3.00 |
FAQs
- What is the current inflation rate YoY in Tunisia?
- The latest inflation rate YoY for Tunisia is 4.90% as of November 2025, slightly below the previous 5.00% reading.
- How does Tunisia’s inflation compare historically?
- Inflation peaked at 6.00% in February 2025 and has steadily declined since, aligning with long-run averages near 5.20%.
- What are the main risks to Tunisia’s inflation outlook?
- Key risks include external shocks such as commodity price spikes, geopolitical tensions, and delays in subsidy reforms.
Final Takeaway: Tunisia’s inflation moderation to 4.90% YoY signals effective policy but requires ongoing vigilance amid external and structural risks.
TNDUSD – Tunisia’s currency pair, highly sensitive to inflation and monetary policy shifts.
TSLA – Proxy for global inflation sentiment via commodity price exposure.
BTCUSD – Digital asset often inversely correlated with inflation fears.
AAPL – Reflects consumer spending power affected by inflation.
EURUSD – Regional currency pair influenced by inflation and trade dynamics affecting Tunisia.
November’s inflation print of 4.90% YoY compares to 5.00% in October and a 12-month average of 5.30%. This steady decline reflects easing cost pressures, particularly in food and transportation sectors. Core inflation, excluding volatile items, held firm at 3.80%, signaling underlying price stability.
Month-on-month data show a 0.10 percentage point decrease driven by lower energy prices and subdued demand. Compared to the peak of 6.00% in February 2025, the current figure marks a 1.10 percentage point reduction, underscoring the effectiveness of policy measures.