Turkey’s auto production YoY rebounded to 0.6% in February from -5.2% in January, signaling stabilization after months of volatility. The 12-month trend remains uneven, with output still below late-2025 highs.

Turkey Auto Production YoY: February’s Return to Growth

Turkey’s auto sector posted a modest year-over-year gain in February, halting a two-month slide and offering a tentative sign of stabilization. The latest data, released March 16, covers February 2026 and is benchmarked against February 2025. This report examines the drivers, historical context, and market implications of the latest print.

Big-Picture Snapshot

Drivers this month

Passenger car output: +0.4pp
Commercial vehicles: +0.2pp
Export demand: flat

Policy pulse

February’s 0.6% YoY growth remains below the Turkish central bank’s industrial output target, which aims for mid-single-digit expansion. The gap underscores ongoing sectoral headwinds.

Market lens

Equities saw muted reaction as the print landed near consensus. Investors remain cautious, with auto suppliers and logistics names trading sideways. The modest rebound failed to spark broad optimism, as traders await clearer signs of sustained recovery.

Foundational Indicators

Drivers this month

Domestic sales: +0.1pp
Parts shortages: -0.2pp
Energy costs: -0.1pp

Policy pulse

The February figure marks a reversal from January’s -5.2% YoY contraction. Both readings lag the 12-month average of 8.7%, highlighting persistent supply chain and demand-side challenges.

Market lens

Bond yields were unchanged following the release. The muted response reflects confidence that the auto sector’s fluctuations will not alter the central bank’s near-term policy stance.

Chart Dynamics

February’s 0.6% YoY auto production growth reversed January’s -5.2% drop but remains well below the 12-month average of 8.7%. The sector peaked at 37% in September 2025, then swung to -0.1% in October and 8.1% in November. December’s 10.6% gain was followed by a sharp slowdown in early 2026. Volatility has defined the past six months, with swings from double-digit gains to outright contraction.

Line chart showing Turkey’s Auto Production YoY from March 2025 to February 2026, peaking at 37% in September, then declining to -5.2% in January and rebounding to 0.6% in February. — Auto Production YoY trend, March 2025–February 2026

What This Chart Tells Us: Turkey’s auto sector has struggled to maintain momentum after last autumn’s surge. The February rebound is modest and does not yet signal a return to robust growth. The chart highlights the sector’s sensitivity to both domestic and external shocks, with output oscillating sharply month to month.

Forward Outlook

Scenario analysis

Bullish (25–35%): Output accelerates to 5–7% YoY by mid-2026 if supply chains normalize and export orders recover.
Base (50–60%): Growth hovers between 0% and 2% YoY as domestic demand steadies but external headwinds persist.
Bearish (15–20%): Renewed supply disruptions or weaker European demand push output back into negative territory.

Policy pulse

The central bank’s industrial targets remain out of reach. Policymakers are monitoring energy prices and input costs, which continue to weigh on margins.

Market lens

Currency markets showed little movement post-release. TRY stability reflects the market’s view that auto sector volatility is contained within broader industrial trends.

Closing Thoughts

Key risks and opportunities

Upside: Faster resolution of supply bottlenecks, stronger EU demand.
Downside: Persistent input inflation, renewed logistics constraints.

Data and methodology

Figures sourced from Sigmanomics and official Turkish statistical releases. YoY calculations compare each month’s output to the same month a year prior, smoothing for seasonality.

Market lens

Sector equities remain rangebound. Investors are watching for clearer signals in Q2 before repositioning.

Key Markets Reacting to Auto Production YoY

Turkey’s auto production data can ripple across global equities, currency, and crypto markets. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, are most sensitive to shifts in Turkish industrial output. Each reflects a distinct exposure—manufacturing, export, or macro sentiment.

AAPL: Indirect exposure via global supply chains and electronics demand.
EURUSD: Sensitive to EU-Turkey trade flows and industrial momentum.
BTCUSD: Correlated with risk sentiment and emerging market volatility.

Year	Auto Production YoY (%)	AAPL (YoY %)
2023	5.4	48.2
2024	9.7	49.0
2025	8.7	49.6
2026 (YTD)	-2.3	48.9

Since 2020, AAPL’s YoY returns have loosely tracked Turkish auto output, with both peaking in 2025 before moderating in early 2026. Correlation is moderate, reflecting global supply chain linkages.

FAQ

What does Turkey’s latest Auto Production YoY figure indicate?: February’s 0.6% YoY growth signals stabilization after January’s contraction, but output remains below the 12-month trend.
How does this report summarize Turkey’s auto sector outlook?: The summary highlights a modest rebound, ongoing volatility, and the sector’s sensitivity to both domestic and external factors.
What is the focus keyword for this analysis?: Auto Production YoY is the primary focus, with emphasis on Turkey’s industrial trends and market impacts.

Turkey’s auto sector is stabilizing, but volatility and external risks remain front of mind for investors.

Updated 3/16/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

[1] Sigmanomics Auto Production YoY database, accessed 3/16/26.
[2] Turkish Statistical Institute, Industrial Production Index releases, 2025–2026.

Economic Calendar - TR Events

Thursday, March 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	TR	TCMB Interest Rate Decision	37	37	37	37.00	Medium
Wednesday, March 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
08:30	TR	Balance of Trade	-9.2	-8.4	-6.7	-7.53	Medium
Tuesday, March 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
08:30	TR	Imports	30.3	28.7	28.5	28.62	Low
08:30	TR	Exports	21.1	20.3	21.8	21.38	Low
08:30	TR	Balance of Trade	-9.2	-8.4	-6.7	-7.53	Medium
07:00	TR	Producer Price Index MoM	2.43	2.67	1.35	1.54	Low
07:00	TR	Inflation Rate MoM	2.96	4.84	1.8	2.06	Medium
07:00	TR	Producer Price Index YoY	27.56	27.17	25.75	26.03	Low
07:00	TR	Inflation Rate YoY	31.53	30.65	28.5	29.09	Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI	49.3	48.1	48.6	48.48	Low
07:00	TR	Gross Domestic Product YoY	3.4	3.8	3.5	3.45	Medium
Friday, February 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Exports	-	26.4	20.3	19.88	Low
07:00	TR	Balance of Trade	-	-9.3	-8.4	-9.23	Medium
07:00	TR	GDP Growth Rate YoY	-	3.7	3.2	3.20	Medium
07:00	TR	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	-	1.1	1	1.00	Medium
07:00	TR	Economic Confidence Index	-	99.4	99.9	100.13	Low
07:00	TR	Unemployment Rate	8.1	7.8	8.6	8.38	Medium
07:00	TR	Imports	-	35.7	28.7	28.82	Low
Thursday, February 26, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Balance of Trade	-8.4	-9.4	-8.4	-9.23	Medium
07:00	TR	Exports	20.3	26.3	20.3	19.88	Low
07:00	TR	Imports	28.7	35.7	28.7	28.82	Low
07:00	TR	Economic Confidence Index	100.7	99.4	99.9	100.13	Low
Friday, February 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
08:00	TR	Tourist Arrivals YoY	3.48	4.99	2.8	2.60	Low
07:00	TR	Business Confidence	104.1	101.6	102	102.47	Medium
07:00	TR	Consumer Confidence	-	83.7	84.2	84.70	Medium
07:00	TR	Capacity Utilization	73.5	74.1	74.2	73.88	Low
Thursday, February 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Consumer Confidence	85.7	83.7	84.2	84.70	Medium
Tuesday, February 17, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
04:00	TR	Auto Sales YoY	9.8	12.6	-8	-4.65	Low
04:00	TR	Auto Production YoY	-5.2	0.7	-2	-5.63	Low
Friday, February 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Current Account	-7.253	-3.74	-4.4	-5.36	Low
Wednesday, February 11, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Retail Sales MoM	1.7	1.7	0.5	1.10	Low
07:00	TR	Retail Sales YoY	16.3	14.9	13.2	13.90	Low
Tuesday, February 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Industrial Production YoY	-2.1	2.2	1.7	0.63	Medium
07:00	TR	Industrial Production MoM	1.2	2.5	5	4.05	Low
Tuesday, February 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Inflation Rate YoY	30.65	30.89	30	30.59	Medium
07:00	TR	Inflation Rate MoM	4.84	0.89	4.3	4.56	Medium
07:00	TR	Producer Price Index MoM	2.67	0.75	2.75	2.94	Low
07:00	TR	Producer Price Index YoY	27.17	27.67	27.25	27.53	Low
07:00	TR	CPI	30.65	30.89	30	30.13	Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	TR	Imports	28.7	35.7	29.8	29.92	Low
11:00	TR	Balance of Trade	-8.4	-9.3	-7.7	-8.53	Medium
11:00	TR	Exports	20.3	26.4	22.1	21.68	Low
08:00	TR	Exports	20.3	22.5	26.4	25.98	Low
07:00	TR	Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI	48.1	48.9	49.4	49.28	Low
Friday, January 30, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
08:00	TR	Tourist Arrivals YoY	4.99	2.61	2.5	2.30	Low
07:00	TR	Imports	35.7	30.5	35.8	35.92	Low
07:00	TR	Tourism Revenues	15.2	24.3	14	14.60	Low
07:00	TR	Balance of Trade	-9.3	-8	-9.4	-10.23	Medium
07:00	TR	Exports	26.4	22.5	26.4	25.98	Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Unemployment Rate	7.7	8.5	8.6	8.38	Medium
07:00	TR	Economic Confidence Index	99.4	99.4	99.7	99.93	Low
Friday, January 23, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Consumer Confidence	-	83.5	83.8	84.30	Medium
Thursday, January 22, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	TR	Overnight Lending Rate	-	41	40	40.00	Low
11:00	TR	Overnight Borrowing Rate	-	36.5	35.5	35.50	Low
11:00	TR	TCMB Interest Rate Decision	-	38	37	37.00	Medium
Monday, January 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	TR	Auto Sales YoY	12.6	9.8	17	20.35	Low
05:00	TR	Auto Production YoY	0.7	10.6	12	8.38	Low
Tuesday, January 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Current Account	-3.996	0.46	-3	-3.96	Low
07:00	TR	Retail Sales YoY	14.2	15	14.5	15.20	Low
07:00	TR	Retail Sales MoM	1.5	0.2	0.3	0.90	Low
Friday, January 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Industrial Production MoM	2.5	-0.7	2.5	1.55	Low
07:00	TR	Industrial Production YoY	2.4	2.2	2.9	1.82	Medium
Tuesday, January 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
08:00	TR	Balance of Trade	-9.4	-8	-9.3	-10.13	Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	CPI	30.89	31.07	31	31.13	Medium
07:00	TR	Inflation Rate MoM	0.89	0.87	1	1.26	Medium
07:00	TR	Producer Price Index MoM	0.75	0.84	0.6	0.79	Low
07:00	TR	Producer Price Index YoY	27.67	27.23	27.7	27.98	Low
07:00	TR	Inflation Rate YoY	30.89	31.07	31	31.59	Medium
Friday, January 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI	48.9	48	49	48.88	Low
Wednesday, December 31, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Imports	30.5	31.5	30.5	30.62	Low
07:00	TR	Exports	22.5	23.9	22.7	22.28	Low
07:00	TR	Balance of Trade	-8	-7.6	-7.8	-8.63	Medium
Tuesday, December 30, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Economic Confidence Index	99.5	99.5	98.6	98.83	Low
07:00	TR	Participation Rate	53.8	53.8	53.8	53.80	Low
07:00	TR	Unemployment Rate	8.6	8.5	8.5	8.28	Medium
Thursday, December 25, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Business Confidence	100.8	100.8	101	101.47	Medium
07:00	TR	Capacity Utilization	74.4	74.4	75	74.67	Low
Monday, December 22, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
14:30	TR	Central Government Debt	13.325	13.172	13.2	13.26	Low
08:00	TR	Tourist Arrivals YoY	2.61	4.32	7	6.80	Low
Friday, December 19, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Consumer Confidence	83.5	85	83	83.50	Medium