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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Auto Production YoY fell to -19.2% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Turkey Auto Production YoY fell to -19.2% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 34.7% from June's 15.5% reading. The reading missed the 10.0% consensus by 29.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.98%. Over the past 3 months, Auto Production YoY averaged -8.65%, vs -2.73% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-19.2
Actual
10
Consensus
15.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±9.68 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 13.8
Actual: -19.2
Error: +33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/TRY | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Auto Production YoY (Turkey) was reported at -19.2% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 10% by 29.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 15.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.86%, ranging from -32.8% to 37% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -12.17%, down from the prior three at 0.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 17.19%) is higher than the prior year (σ 12.72%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Auto Production YoY has averaged -7.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/TRY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 9.68%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Sep 21) and Consumer Confidence (Sep 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Auto Production YoY - TR
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About Auto Production YoY — Turkey
DEFINITION
Auto Production YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the production of automobiles. It provides insight into the growth or decline of the automotive industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can impact consumer spending, employment, and trade. A positive YoY change in auto production indicates a strong and growing industry, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -19.2 %, consensus 10 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 15.5 %. Before that (May 2026): -32.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/TRY (Bullish USD, r=0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Production YoY | -19.2 | -11 | -28.65 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Sales YoY | -25 | -15 | -27.25 | Low | |