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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Auto Production YoY climbed to 15.5% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Turkey Auto Production YoY climbed to 15.5% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 48.3% from May's -32.8% reading. The print exceeded the -35.0% consensus by 50.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.33%. Over the past 3 months, Auto Production YoY averaged -13.75%, vs -4.5% in the prior 3-month window. Auto Production YoY is now the highest in 9 months.
Latest Release
15.5
Actual
-35
Consensus
-32.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.8 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -43.25
Actual: 15.5
Error: -58.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Auto Production YoY (Turkey) was reported at 15.5% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -35% by 50.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of -32.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.53%, ranging from -32.8% to 37% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -4%, down from the prior three at -1.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 15.94%) is higher than the prior year (σ 12.37%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Auto Production YoY has averaged 2.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.8%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CPI YoY (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Auto Production YoY - TR
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About Auto Production YoY — Turkey
DEFINITION
Auto Production YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the production of automobiles. It provides insight into the growth or decline of the automotive industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can impact consumer spending, employment, and trade. A positive YoY change in auto production indicates a strong and growing industry, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 15.5 %, consensus -35 %. Prior reading (May 2026): -32.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 5.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.47) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 15.9 | 9.9 | 18 | 16.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Exports | 24.9 | 22.4 | 24.94 | 25.91 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Imports | 35.3 | 28.1 | 35.3 | 36.40 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Balance of Trade | -10.37 | -5.65 | -10.4 | -10.52 | Medium |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -4.02 | -3.58 | -3 | -3.51 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index YoY | 28.09 | 27.4 | 27.45 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.99 | 1.83 | 2.28 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.8 | 1 | 1.30 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate YoY | 32.11 | 31.8 | 32.36 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.1 | 47.5 | 46.25 | Low | |