Turkey Auto Sales YoY: December 2025 Report and Macroeconomic Implications
Turkey’s auto sales growth slowed sharply to 9.80% YoY in December 2025, down from 19.40% in November. This deceleration follows a volatile year marked by swings from -14.40% in March to a peak of 38.80% in May. Monetary tightening, fiscal constraints, and external risks weigh on demand. The outlook balances moderate recovery hopes against inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
Table of Contents
Turkey’s auto sales YoY growth for December 2025 registered at 9.80%, a notable slowdown from November’s 19.40% but still positive. The Sigmanomics database shows a turbulent 2025, with sales swinging from a low of -14.40% in March to a high of 38.80% in May. This volatility reflects shifting consumer confidence amid macroeconomic headwinds.
Drivers this month
- Rising interest rates curbed auto financing demand.
- TRY depreciation increased vehicle import costs, pressuring prices.
- Government incentives for electric vehicles partially offset declines.
Policy pulse
Turkey’s central bank maintained a tight monetary stance in late 2025, with policy rates near 25%, aiming to tame inflation above 40%. Auto sales growth deceleration aligns with tighter credit conditions and elevated borrowing costs.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Turkish lira (TRYUSD) weakened 0.30% post-release, while the BIST 100 index dipped 0.50%, reflecting investor caution on consumer demand outlook.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the auto sales trend. Turkey’s annual inflation rate remains elevated at 42.30% (November 2025), eroding real incomes. Unemployment stands at 11.20%, slightly improved from 12.00% a year ago but still constraining household spending power.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Central Bank of Turkey’s high policy rate (24.50%) and tight liquidity conditions have increased borrowing costs. Auto loans, a key driver of vehicle sales, saw average interest rates rise from 18% to 27% over the past six months, dampening demand.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal consolidation efforts have limited direct stimulus. The government’s budget deficit narrowed to 3.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, down from 5.10% last year, reducing room for consumer subsidies. However, targeted incentives for electric vehicles and green transport remain in place.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Ongoing regional tensions and global supply chain disruptions have increased import costs for auto components. The TRY’s 15% depreciation against the USD since mid-2025 has raised vehicle prices, particularly for imported models, pressuring sales volumes.
Drivers this month
- Higher financing costs reduced consumer borrowing capacity.
- TRY depreciation increased prices for imported vehicles by 8-10%.
- Government EV incentives softened the overall decline.
Policy pulse
Monetary tightening remains the dominant factor. The central bank’s real interest rates are positive but have constrained consumer credit growth, reflected in auto loan volumes contracting 4.50% YoY in November.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The TRYUSD currency pair weakened 0.30% within the first hour, while the BIST 100 index fell 0.50%, signaling investor concerns about consumer demand sustainability.
This chart signals a cooling auto market in Turkey, trending downward from mid-year highs. The deceleration suggests that monetary and external pressures are outweighing fiscal support and pent-up demand, pointing to a more cautious consumer outlook in early 2026.
Looking ahead, Turkey’s auto sales trajectory hinges on several macro factors. Inflation is expected to remain elevated near 40% in early 2026, while policy rates may stay high to anchor inflation expectations. Currency volatility and geopolitical risks persist.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Inflation moderates faster than expected to below 30% by Q3 2026.
- Monetary easing begins mid-year, lowering borrowing costs.
- Government expands EV incentives, boosting demand.
- Auto sales rebound to 15-20% YoY growth by Q4 2026.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Inflation remains sticky around 40% through mid-2026.
- Monetary policy stays tight, with gradual easing only late 2026.
- Auto sales grow modestly at 5-10% YoY, constrained by credit costs.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Inflation spikes above 45% due to external shocks.
- Currency weakness accelerates, pushing vehicle prices higher.
- Auto sales contract 5-10% YoY amid credit crunch and weak demand.
Turkey’s auto sales growth deceleration to 9.80% YoY in December 2025 reflects a complex interplay of monetary tightening, inflationary pressures, and external risks. While the sector remains positive compared to early 2025 lows, the cooling trend signals caution for consumer demand and broader economic momentum.
Policymakers face a delicate balance between taming inflation and supporting growth. Structural reforms and fiscal support targeted at green technologies could provide longer-term resilience. Investors and market participants should monitor credit conditions, inflation trends, and geopolitical developments closely.
Key Markets Likely to React to Auto Sales YoY
Auto sales data in Turkey often influence equity, currency, and credit markets sensitive to consumer demand and financing conditions. Below are five tradable symbols with historical correlations to Turkey’s auto sector trends and macroeconomic shifts:
- BIST100 – Turkey’s benchmark equity index, sensitive to consumer sector earnings and economic growth.
- TRYUSD – Turkish lira vs. USD, reflecting currency risk impacting import costs and consumer prices.
- TOASO – Leading Turkish auto manufacturer, directly impacted by sales volumes and input costs.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, as a proxy for risk sentiment and alternative asset flows in emerging markets.
- EURTRY – Euro vs. Turkish lira, influencing import prices and inflation dynamics.
FAQs
- What does the latest Turkey Auto Sales YoY data indicate?
- The 9.80% YoY growth in December 2025 signals a slowdown from previous months, reflecting tighter credit and inflation pressures impacting consumer demand.
- How does monetary policy affect Turkey’s auto sales?
- High policy rates increase borrowing costs, reducing auto loan uptake and slowing vehicle purchases, as seen in late 2025.
- What are the key risks for Turkey’s auto market in 2026?
- Risks include persistent inflation, currency depreciation, geopolitical tensions, and global supply chain disruptions affecting prices and demand.
Key takeaway: Turkey’s auto sales growth is moderating amid macro tightening and external pressures, signaling cautious consumer sentiment and a challenging environment for 2026.
December’s 9.80% YoY auto sales growth is down sharply from November’s 19.40% and below the 12-month average of 13.30%. This marks a reversal from the strong rebound seen in mid-2025, when sales peaked at 38.80% YoY in May.
The slowdown reflects tighter credit, inflationary pressures, and currency depreciation. Compared to March’s -14.40%, the current reading remains positive but signals cooling momentum.