Turkey’s Balance of Trade Deteriorates Further in November 2025: A Data-Driven Analysis
Table of Contents
Turkey’s balance of trade (BoT) for November 2025 registered a deficit of -7.80 billion TRY, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure surpassed market expectations of -8.30 billion TRY and worsened from October’s -7.60 billion TRY. The persistent trade deficit reflects ongoing challenges in Turkey’s external sector amid a complex global and domestic environment.
Drivers this month
- Import costs rose due to higher energy prices and a weaker TRY.
- Export growth slowed, impacted by weaker demand in Europe and supply chain disruptions.
- Geopolitical tensions in the region increased risk premiums on trade finance.
Policy pulse
The current deficit level remains above the 12-month average of -6.00 billion TRY, indicating sustained external imbalances. The Central Bank of Turkey’s recent monetary tightening aims to stabilize the currency but has yet to significantly improve trade competitiveness.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Turkish lira (TRY) depreciated 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over external vulnerabilities. Short-term yields on Turkish government bonds rose by 15 basis points, signaling increased risk premia.
Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside the balance of trade provides a fuller picture of Turkey’s external sector health. The November deficit of -7.80 billion TRY contrasts with a narrower -4.20 billion TRY recorded in September 2025, highlighting a recent deterioration trend.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Central Bank of Turkey has raised policy rates by 150 basis points since August 2025 to combat inflation and support the TRY. However, tighter financial conditions have increased borrowing costs for exporters, dampening export volumes. Inflation remains elevated at 38% YoY, eroding real incomes and domestic demand.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Turkey’s fiscal stance remains expansionary, with a budget deficit of 3.50% of GDP in Q3 2025. Increased government spending on infrastructure and social programs supports domestic demand but exacerbates external imbalances by fueling import growth.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea regions have disrupted trade routes and increased insurance costs. Additionally, global energy price volatility continues to inflate import bills, contributing to the trade deficit.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The TRY/USD exchange rate weakened sharply post-release, with a 0.40% depreciation. Turkish 2-year government bond yields rose by 15 basis points, reflecting increased risk perception. Equity markets showed muted response, with the BIST 100 index down 0.30%.
This chart highlights a clear trend of a deepening trade deficit over the past three months, reversing a brief improvement seen in September. The persistent gap signals ongoing external sector stress, likely to pressure the currency and inflation dynamics in the near term.
Looking ahead, Turkey’s balance of trade trajectory depends on several key factors, including global demand, energy prices, and domestic policy responses. We outline three scenarios with associated probabilities:
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
- Global demand recovers, boosting exports by 10% YoY.
- Energy prices stabilize or decline, reducing import costs.
- Monetary policy supports TRY stabilization, improving trade competitiveness.
- Result: Deficit narrows to -5.50 billion TRY by Q1 2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate export growth of 3-5% YoY amid uneven global recovery.
- Energy prices remain elevated but stable.
- Monetary tightening continues, limiting import growth but also export financing.
- Result: Deficit remains near current levels (-7.50 to -8.00 billion TRY) through early 2026.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade routes.
- Energy prices spike further, pushing import costs higher.
- Currency weakness accelerates, increasing inflation and import bills.
- Result: Deficit widens beyond -9.00 billion TRY, exacerbating macro risks.
Policy pulse
Monetary authorities face a delicate balancing act between curbing inflation and supporting external competitiveness. Fiscal discipline will be critical to avoid further external imbalances.
Turkey’s November 2025 balance of trade data from the Sigmanomics database confirms a persistent and widening external deficit. This trend reflects structural challenges, including energy dependence, geopolitical risks, and monetary tightening impacts. While the Central Bank’s policy measures aim to stabilize the currency, external shocks and fiscal expansion complicate the outlook.
Investors and policymakers should monitor export performance, energy price trends, and geopolitical developments closely. The balance of trade will remain a key barometer of Turkey’s macroeconomic health and currency stability in the coming quarters.
Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade
The balance of trade is a critical indicator influencing currency strength, bond yields, and equity markets in Turkey. Key tradable assets historically sensitive to Turkey’s trade data include the Turkish lira (TRY), BIST 100 equity index, and energy-related stocks. These markets react to shifts in trade dynamics, external financing conditions, and geopolitical risks.
- USDTRY – The USD/TRY currency pair is highly sensitive to trade deficits, reflecting external financing needs and currency risk.
- ASELS – A major Turkish defense stock, impacted by geopolitical tensions affecting trade and investor sentiment.
- TUPRS – Turkey’s leading oil refiner, closely linked to energy import costs and trade balance fluctuations.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often serves as a risk hedge during currency volatility in emerging markets like Turkey.
- EURTRY – The Euro/Turkish lira pair reflects Turkey’s trade exposure to the Eurozone, its largest trading partner.
Indicator vs. USDTRY Since 2020
Since 2020, Turkey’s balance of trade deficit has shown a strong positive correlation with USDTRY exchange rate movements. Periods of widening deficits coincide with TRY depreciation, as external imbalances increase demand for foreign currency. For example, the 2023 energy price spike pushed the deficit above -8 billion TRY and USDTRY above 20. This relationship underscores the balance of trade’s role as a key driver of currency risk in Turkey.
FAQs
- What is the current balance of trade for Turkey?
- The November 2025 balance of trade deficit for Turkey is -7.80 billion TRY, reflecting a worsening external position compared to previous months.
- How does the balance of trade affect Turkey’s economy?
- The trade deficit influences currency stability, inflation, and external financing costs, impacting overall macroeconomic health and policy decisions.
- What are the main risks to Turkey’s trade balance outlook?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, and global demand fluctuations, which could widen the deficit further.
Key takeaway: Turkey’s balance of trade deficit is deepening amid external shocks and domestic tightening, posing ongoing challenges for currency stability and inflation control.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 balance of trade deficit of -7.80 billion TRY marks a 2.60% increase from October’s -7.60 billion TRY and is 30% wider than the 12-month average of -6.00 billion TRY. This deterioration follows a steady worsening since September, when the deficit was -4.20 billion TRY.
Imports surged by 8% MoM, driven largely by energy and intermediate goods, while exports grew only 1.50% MoM, constrained by weaker external demand and supply chain issues. The widening gap underscores structural vulnerabilities in Turkey’s trade composition.