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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Balance of Trade climbed to -5.24B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Turkey Balance of Trade climbed to -5.24B in August 2026, released September 2026, up 2.1B from July's -7.34B reading. The print exceeded the -7B consensus by 1.76B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -8.27B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -7.19B, vs -9.02B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 11 months.
Latest Release
-5.24
Actual
-7
Consensus
-7.34
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.71 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -6.44
Actual: -5.24
Error: -1.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Turkey) was reported at -5.24 billion in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -7.00 billion by 1.76 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -7.34 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -7.95 billion, ranging from -11.30 billion to -4.20 billion across 25 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -6.66 billion, up from the prior three at -7.19 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.72 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.15 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -4.62 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.71 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Sep 21) and Consumer Confidence (Sep 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - TR
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About Balance of Trade — Turkey
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -5.24 B, consensus -7 B. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -5.2 B. Before that (Jul 2026): -7.3 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Production YoY | -19.2 | -11 | -28.65 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Sales YoY | -25 | -15 | -27.25 | Low | |