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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Balance of Trade climbed to -5.16B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Turkey Balance of Trade climbed to -5.16B in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.09B from August's -5.25B reading. The reading matched the -5.23B consensus. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -6.58B, vs -7.06B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 13 months.
Latest Release
-5.16
Actual
-5.23
Consensus
-5.25
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.1 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -4.5
Actual: -5.16
Error: +0.67
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Turkey) was reported at -5.16 billion in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -5.23 billion by 0.07 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -5.25 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -7.85, ranging from -11.30 to -5.16 across 25 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -5.21, up from the prior three at -6.66. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.79) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.10). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -5.79.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.11.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Nov 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - TR
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About Balance of Trade — Turkey
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -5.23 B, consensus -5.23 B. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -5.23 B. Before that (Aug 2026): -5.24 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Economic Confidence Index | 97.3 | 101.3 | 101 | 99.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 25.5 | 15.9 | 27 | 26.25 | Low |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 0.4 | -0.03 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.9 | 48 | 48.10 | Low | |