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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Budget Balance fell to -378.1 T in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Turkey Budget Balance fell to -378.1 T in July 2026, released August 2026, down 492.3 T from June's 114.2 T reading. The reading missed the 100 T consensus by 478.1 T. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -146.79 T. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged -92 T, vs -181.41 T in the prior 3-month window. Budget Balance is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-378.1
Actual
100
Consensus
114.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±176.39
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 179
Actual: -378.1
Error: +557.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (Turkey) was reported at 12.90 T in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -378.10 T. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -171.43 T, ranging from -528.14 T to 169.49 T across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -187.37 T, down from the prior three at -176.29 T. Volatility over the past year (σ 222.73 T) is comparable than the prior year (σ 241.64 T). In August readings over the past 3 years, Budget Balance has averaged -166.26 T.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/TRY (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 176.39 T.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Sep 21) and Consumer Confidence (Sep 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Budget Balance - TR
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About Budget Balance — Turkey
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 12.9 T. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -378.1 T. Before that (Jun 2026): 114.2 T.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Production YoY | -19.2 | -11 | -28.65 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Sales YoY | -25 | -15 | -27.25 | Low | |