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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Budget Balance climbed to 114.2 T in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Turkey Budget Balance climbed to 114.2 T in June 2026, released July 2026, up 412.4 T from May's -298.2 T reading. The print exceeded the -200 T consensus by 314.2 T. Budget Balance has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged -318.45 T, vs -140.02 T in the prior 3-month window. Budget Balance is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
114.2
Actual
-200
Consensus
-298.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±141.48
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -199.1
Actual: 114.2
Error: -313.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/TRY | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (Turkey) was reported at 114.20 T in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -200.00 T by 314.20 T. The reading rose from the previous value of -298.20 T. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -139.23 T, ranging from -528.14 T to 169.49 T across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -174.23 T, up from the prior three at -239.44 T. Volatility over the past year (σ 216.02 T) is comparable than the prior year (σ 238.31 T). In July readings over the past 3 years, Budget Balance has averaged -163.76 T.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 141.48 T.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CPI YoY (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Budget Balance - TR
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About Budget Balance — Turkey
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 114.2 T, consensus -200 T. Prior reading (May 2026): -298.2 T. Before that (Apr 2026): -338.7 T.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Unemployment Rate | 7.6 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 8.00 | Medium |
| 07:00 | TR | Participation Rate | 52.9 | 52.8 | 52.8 | 52.85 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Economic Confidence Index | 99.8 | 98.9 | 98.4 | 99.10 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 15.9 | 9.9 | 18 | 16.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Exports | 24.9 | 22.4 | 24.94 | 25.91 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Imports | 35.3 | 28.1 | 35.3 | 36.40 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Balance of Trade | -10.37 | -5.65 | -10.4 | -10.52 | Medium |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -4.02 | -3.58 | -3 | -3.51 | Low |