Turkey’s budget swung to a TRY 24.37B surplus in February from a TRY 214.54B deficit in January, marking the first positive print since December and sharply outperforming the 12-month average deficit of TRY 99.37B.

Turkey’s Budget Balance Surges to Surplus in February: A Sharp Fiscal Reversal

Turkey’s fiscal position rebounded in February 2026, with the budget balance posting a rare surplus after months of deep deficits. The latest data, released March 16, highlights a dramatic month-over-month turnaround and signals shifting fiscal dynamics as the government navigates persistent economic pressures.

Big-Picture Snapshot

Drivers This Month

Tax receipts: +TRY 18.2B MoM
Lower interest payments: +TRY 7.1B impact
Reduced capital expenditures: +TRY 5.3B

Policy Pulse

February’s surplus of TRY 24.37B stands in stark contrast to January’s TRY 214.54B deficit. The reading is well above the 12-month average deficit of TRY 99.37B, and far exceeds the government’s medium-term fiscal targets for the quarter.

Market Lens

TRY-denominated assets rallied on the surprise surplus. The lira firmed modestly against the dollar, while Turkish government bond yields edged lower as investors digested the improved fiscal outlook. Market participants cited the sharp swing as a sign of tighter spending controls and improved revenue collection.

Foundational Indicators

Historical Comparisons

February’s TRY 24.37B surplus is the first positive monthly print since December’s TRY 169.49B. January saw a deficit of TRY 214.54B, while November and October registered deficits of TRY 223.2B and TRY 309.6B, respectively. The last comparable surplus occurred in June 2025 at TRY 235.2B.

Drivers This Month

Corporate tax prepayments boosted revenue
Seasonal decline in social spending
Delayed infrastructure outlays

Policy Pulse

The February surplus outpaces the government’s quarterly target and narrows the year-to-date deficit. Fiscal authorities have emphasized discipline, with spending controls and revenue-side measures contributing to the improved balance.

Chart Dynamics

      February’s TRY 24.37B surplus reversed January’s TRY 214.54B deficit and stands well above the 12-month average deficit of TRY 99.37B. The budget balance has swung sharply over the past eight months, with surpluses in June and December 2025, and deep deficits in July (TRY -330.2B), October (TRY -309.6B), and January (TRY -528.14B). The latest print marks the strongest month-over-month improvement since mid-2025.
      
        Budget Balance trend (June 2025 – February 2026)

What This Chart Tells Us: The February surplus signals a decisive break from the persistent deficits of recent months. The rapid fiscal turnaround highlights the impact of revenue-side gains and spending restraint, but volatility remains high, with large swings seen throughout the past year.

Market Lens

Bond yields fell as investors welcomed the fiscal improvement. The sharp reversal in the budget balance has prompted renewed interest in Turkish sovereign debt, with market participants reassessing risk premiums.

Forward Outlook

Scenario Analysis

Bullish (30–40%): Sustained surpluses in Q2, driven by robust tax collection and continued spending discipline.
Base (45–55%): Return to moderate deficits as seasonal expenditures resume, with fiscal balance fluctuating near the recent average.
Bearish (15–25%): Renewed widening of the deficit if revenue gains prove temporary or spending pressures intensify.

Policy Pulse

Authorities have reiterated commitment to fiscal consolidation, but upcoming social and infrastructure spending cycles could test discipline.

Market Lens

Equity markets responded positively to the fiscal surprise. Investors are watching for consistency in fiscal performance before re-rating Turkish assets further.

Closing Thoughts

Key Takeaways

February’s budget surplus marks a pivotal shift in Turkey’s fiscal trajectory, breaking a string of deficits and restoring some investor confidence. The coming months will test whether this improvement can be sustained amid ongoing economic headwinds.

Data Source & Methodology

Figures are sourced from the Turkish Ministry of Treasury and Finance and cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database[1]. Data reflect monthly accrual-based reporting in Turkish lira.

Key Markets Reacting to Budget Balance

Turkey’s fiscal swing has triggered notable moves across asset classes. The budget surplus has buoyed confidence in Turkish sovereigns, nudged the lira higher, and prompted a measured response in global risk assets. Below are select symbols with direct or indirect exposure to Turkish fiscal dynamics.

USDTRY – The lira strengthened modestly against the dollar following the surplus announcement, reflecting improved fiscal sentiment.
AAPL – As a global bellwether, Apple’s risk sentiment can be influenced by emerging market fiscal stability, including Turkey.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin trading volumes in Turkey often spike during fiscal volatility, linking crypto flows to budget news.

Month	Budget Balance (TRY B)	USDTRY Change (%)
Jun 2025	235.2	-1.4
Oct 2025	-309.6	+2.7
Dec 2025	169.49	-0.9
Jan 2026	-528.14	+3.2
Feb 2026	24.37	-0.6

Since 2020, sharp improvements in Turkey’s budget balance have typically coincided with lira appreciation, while deepening deficits have pressured the currency lower.

FAQ: Turkey’s Budget Balance Surges to Surplus in February: A Sharp Fiscal Reversal

What drove Turkey’s budget surplus in February?: Key factors included higher tax receipts, reduced interest payments, and lower capital expenditures, reversing the prior month’s deficit.
How does this surplus compare to recent months?: February’s TRY 24.37B surplus contrasts sharply with January’s TRY 214.54B deficit and is the first positive print since December’s TRY 169.49B.
What is the focus of this report?: The article analyzes Turkey’s February 2026 budget balance, highlighting the drivers, historical context, and market impact of the fiscal turnaround.

Turkey’s February surplus marks a critical inflection point in its fiscal narrative.

Updated 3/16/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Sigmanomics database, Turkey Budget Balance, accessed March 16, 2026.
Turkish Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Monthly Budget Realizations, February 2026.

Economic Calendar - TR Events

Thursday, March 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	TR	TCMB Interest Rate Decision	37	37	37	37.00	Medium
Wednesday, March 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
08:30	TR	Balance of Trade	-9.2	-8.4	-6.7	-7.53	Medium
Tuesday, March 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
08:30	TR	Imports	30.3	28.7	28.5	28.62	Low
08:30	TR	Exports	21.1	20.3	21.8	21.38	Low
08:30	TR	Balance of Trade	-9.2	-8.4	-6.7	-7.53	Medium
07:00	TR	Producer Price Index MoM	2.43	2.67	1.35	1.54	Low
07:00	TR	Inflation Rate MoM	2.96	4.84	1.8	2.06	Medium
07:00	TR	Producer Price Index YoY	27.56	27.17	25.75	26.03	Low
07:00	TR	Inflation Rate YoY	31.53	30.65	28.5	29.09	Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI	49.3	48.1	48.6	48.48	Low
07:00	TR	Gross Domestic Product YoY	3.4	3.8	3.5	3.45	Medium
Friday, February 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Exports	-	26.4	20.3	19.88	Low
07:00	TR	Balance of Trade	-	-9.3	-8.4	-9.23	Medium
07:00	TR	GDP Growth Rate YoY	-	3.7	3.2	3.20	Medium
07:00	TR	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	-	1.1	1	1.00	Medium
07:00	TR	Economic Confidence Index	-	99.4	99.9	100.13	Low
07:00	TR	Unemployment Rate	8.1	7.8	8.6	8.38	Medium
07:00	TR	Imports	-	35.7	28.7	28.82	Low
Thursday, February 26, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Balance of Trade	-8.4	-9.4	-8.4	-9.23	Medium
07:00	TR	Exports	20.3	26.3	20.3	19.88	Low
07:00	TR	Imports	28.7	35.7	28.7	28.82	Low
07:00	TR	Economic Confidence Index	100.7	99.4	99.9	100.13	Low
Friday, February 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
08:00	TR	Tourist Arrivals YoY	3.48	4.99	2.8	2.60	Low
07:00	TR	Business Confidence	104.1	101.6	102	102.47	Medium
07:00	TR	Consumer Confidence	-	83.7	84.2	84.70	Medium
07:00	TR	Capacity Utilization	73.5	74.1	74.2	73.88	Low
Thursday, February 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Consumer Confidence	85.7	83.7	84.2	84.70	Medium
Tuesday, February 17, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
04:00	TR	Auto Sales YoY	9.8	12.6	-8	-4.65	Low
04:00	TR	Auto Production YoY	-5.2	0.7	-2	-5.63	Low
Friday, February 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Current Account	-7.253	-3.74	-4.4	-5.36	Low
Wednesday, February 11, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Retail Sales MoM	1.7	1.7	0.5	1.10	Low
07:00	TR	Retail Sales YoY	16.3	14.9	13.2	13.90	Low
Tuesday, February 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Industrial Production YoY	-2.1	2.2	1.7	0.63	Medium
07:00	TR	Industrial Production MoM	1.2	2.5	5	4.05	Low
Tuesday, February 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Inflation Rate YoY	30.65	30.89	30	30.59	Medium
07:00	TR	Inflation Rate MoM	4.84	0.89	4.3	4.56	Medium
07:00	TR	Producer Price Index MoM	2.67	0.75	2.75	2.94	Low
07:00	TR	Producer Price Index YoY	27.17	27.67	27.25	27.53	Low
07:00	TR	CPI	30.65	30.89	30	30.13	Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	TR	Imports	28.7	35.7	29.8	29.92	Low
11:00	TR	Balance of Trade	-8.4	-9.3	-7.7	-8.53	Medium
11:00	TR	Exports	20.3	26.4	22.1	21.68	Low
08:00	TR	Exports	20.3	22.5	26.4	25.98	Low
07:00	TR	Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI	48.1	48.9	49.4	49.28	Low
Friday, January 30, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
08:00	TR	Tourist Arrivals YoY	4.99	2.61	2.5	2.30	Low
07:00	TR	Imports	35.7	30.5	35.8	35.92	Low
07:00	TR	Tourism Revenues	15.2	24.3	14	14.60	Low
07:00	TR	Balance of Trade	-9.3	-8	-9.4	-10.23	Medium
07:00	TR	Exports	26.4	22.5	26.4	25.98	Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Unemployment Rate	7.7	8.5	8.6	8.38	Medium
07:00	TR	Economic Confidence Index	99.4	99.4	99.7	99.93	Low
Friday, January 23, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Consumer Confidence	-	83.5	83.8	84.30	Medium
Thursday, January 22, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	TR	Overnight Lending Rate	-	41	40	40.00	Low
11:00	TR	Overnight Borrowing Rate	-	36.5	35.5	35.50	Low
11:00	TR	TCMB Interest Rate Decision	-	38	37	37.00	Medium
Monday, January 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	TR	Auto Sales YoY	12.6	9.8	17	20.35	Low
05:00	TR	Auto Production YoY	0.7	10.6	12	8.38	Low
Tuesday, January 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Current Account	-3.996	0.46	-3	-3.96	Low
07:00	TR	Retail Sales YoY	14.2	15	14.5	15.20	Low
07:00	TR	Retail Sales MoM	1.5	0.2	0.3	0.90	Low
Friday, January 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Industrial Production MoM	2.5	-0.7	2.5	1.55	Low
07:00	TR	Industrial Production YoY	2.4	2.2	2.9	1.82	Medium
Tuesday, January 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
08:00	TR	Balance of Trade	-9.4	-8	-9.3	-10.13	Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	CPI	30.89	31.07	31	31.13	Medium
07:00	TR	Inflation Rate MoM	0.89	0.87	1	1.26	Medium
07:00	TR	Producer Price Index MoM	0.75	0.84	0.6	0.79	Low
07:00	TR	Producer Price Index YoY	27.67	27.23	27.7	27.98	Low
07:00	TR	Inflation Rate YoY	30.89	31.07	31	31.59	Medium
Friday, January 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI	48.9	48	49	48.88	Low
Wednesday, December 31, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Imports	30.5	31.5	30.5	30.62	Low
07:00	TR	Exports	22.5	23.9	22.7	22.28	Low
07:00	TR	Balance of Trade	-8	-7.6	-7.8	-8.63	Medium
Tuesday, December 30, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Economic Confidence Index	99.5	99.5	98.6	98.83	Low
07:00	TR	Participation Rate	53.8	53.8	53.8	53.80	Low
07:00	TR	Unemployment Rate	8.6	8.5	8.5	8.28	Medium
Thursday, December 25, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Business Confidence	100.8	100.8	101	101.47	Medium
07:00	TR	Capacity Utilization	74.4	74.4	75	74.67	Low
Monday, December 22, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
14:30	TR	Central Government Debt	13.325	13.172	13.2	13.26	Low
08:00	TR	Tourist Arrivals YoY	2.61	4.32	7	6.80	Low
Friday, December 19, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	TR	Consumer Confidence	83.5	85	83	83.50	Medium