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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Budget Balance fell to -532.2 T in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Turkey Budget Balance fell to -532.2 T in September 2026, released October 2026, down 545.1 T from August's 12.9 T reading. The reading missed the -260 T consensus by 272.2 T. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -183.29 T. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged -182.6 T, vs -174.23 T in the prior 3-month window. Budget Balance is now the lowest in 20 months.
Latest Release
-532.2
Actual
-260
Consensus
12.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±176.39
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -499.05
Actual: -532.2
Error: +33.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/TRY | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (Turkey) was reported at -532.20 T in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -260.00 T by 272.20 T. The reading fell from the previous value of 12.90 T. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -199.28 T, ranging from -532.20 T to 169.49 T across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -299.13 T, down from the prior three at -174.23 T. Volatility over the past year (σ 235.54 T) is comparable than the prior year (σ 255.84 T). In October readings over the past 3 years, Budget Balance has averaged -314.10 T.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 176.39 T.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Nov 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Budget Balance - TR
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About Budget Balance — Turkey
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -532.2 T, consensus -260 T. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 12.9 T. Before that (Jul 2026): -378.1 T.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Economic Confidence Index | 97.3 | 101.3 | 101 | 99.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 25.5 | 15.9 | 27 | 26.25 | Low |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 0.4 | -0.03 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.9 | 48 | 48.10 | Low | |