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Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone
Forecast batch: 7/31/26
Market-data read
USD/TRY screens momentum-up across horizons. The 7-, 14-, and 28-day paths all track higher (ER 0.88 / 0.90 / 0.82) — a consistent, low-noise uptrend rather than chop. Term-structure band: ±0.2% / ±0.2% / ±0.3% (7/14/28d).
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (r=+0.50)
Inversely correlated: Tourist Arrivals YoY (r=-0.55), CPI MoM (r=-0.50), CPI YoY (r=-0.50), Foreign Exchange Reserves (r=-0.50), GDP Growth Rate QoQ (r=-0.50), GDP Growth Rate YoY (r=-0.50), Gross Domestic Product YoY (r=-0.50)
As of August 1, 2026, USD/TRY is trading at 47.5631. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this forex pair generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Market-data read
The USD/TRY forex pair tracks the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Turkish Lira. The USD/TRY pair closed at 47.5631 on August 1, 2026, reflecting a gain of 0.13% from the previous close of 47.5022.
Over the past 30 days, the pair has experienced a modest uptrend with a rally of 1.62%, ranging between 46.6828 and 47.5882. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 47.2515. The 14-day RSI stands at 95.1, in overbought territory. Among macroeconomic indicators in our coverage, Tourist Arrivals YOY shows the strongest historical relationship with this instrument, negatively correlated (r = -0.55).
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.07%, reflecting subdued price variability for this pair. Across the past 52 weeks, the pair has traded between 41.8671 and 47.5882, with the current price near the high end of that range.
Daily-return volatility of 0.07% is subdued for this pair, leaving recent ranges compressed — watch for a decisive break of the band as the more telling development. USD/TRY is currently trading 0.66% above its 20-day moving average and sitting in the upper portion of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 95.1, currently in overbought territory.
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Aug 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.