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Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of non-overlapping windows the 60% band held (per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no rows yet) — magnitude only, not a directional record.
2 of 7 models in band
± 0.27% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Coherent trend across 2H/1D/1W.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
USD/TRY's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±0.2% over 7 days, widening to ±0.4% over 28.
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · 7.3% over 82 windows → full record
Across 82 graded 14-day windows since 27 Jul 2026, USD/TRY's expected-range band contained price 7.3% of the time (stated rate: 80%).
As of October 31, 2026, USD/TRY is trading at 49.9557. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this forex pair generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
The USD/TRY forex pair tracks the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Turkish Lira. The USD/TRY pair closed at 49.9557 on October 31, 2026, reflecting a gain of 0.05% from the previous close of 49.9321.
Over the past 30 days, the pair has experienced a modest uptrend with a rally of 1.70%, ranging between 48.9263 and 50.0011. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 49.6334. The 14-day RSI stands at 89.6, in overbought territory. Among macroeconomic indicators in our coverage, Trade Balance (TR) shows the strongest historical relationship with this instrument, negatively correlated (r = -0.81).
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.08%, reflecting subdued price variability for this pair. Over the past 52 weeks, USD/TRY traded between 41.8162 (Oct 31, 2025) and 50.0011 (Oct 30, 2026); the current price sits 0.1% below the 52-week high.
Daily-return volatility of 0.08% is subdued for this pair, leaving recent ranges compressed — watch for a decisive break of the band as the more telling development. USD/TRY is currently trading 0.65% above its 20-day moving average and sitting in the upper portion of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 89.6, currently in overbought territory. For cross-confirmation, the Trade Balance (TR) indicator carries the strongest historical correlation with USD/TRY (r = -0.81) and is worth watching for context.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Participation Rate (TR) (r=+0.72), TCMB Interest Rate Decision (TR) (r=+0.62), Producer Price Index YoY (TR) (r=+0.51)
Inversely correlated: Trade Balance (TR) (r=-0.81), Overnight Borrowing Rate (TR) (r=-0.52), Overnight Lending Rate (TR) (r=-0.52), CPI MoM (TR) (r=-0.50), CPI YoY (TR) (r=-0.50)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Oct 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.