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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Business Confidence climbed to 103.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Turkey Business Confidence climbed to 103.3% in May 2026, up 2.7% from April's 100.6% reading. The reading matched the 100.8% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 1.9%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 100.8%, vs 101.9% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
103.3
Actual
100.8
Consensus
100.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.83 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 100.3
Actual: 103.3
Error: -3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Turkey) was reported at 103.3% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 100.8% by 2.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 100.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 101.21%, ranging from 100.2% to 104.1% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 102.8%, up from the prior three at 100.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.28%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.68%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 103.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.83%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Consumer Confidence (Jun 22) and Balance of Trade (Jun 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Business Confidence - TR
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About Business Confidence — Turkey
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 103.3 %, consensus 100.8 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 100.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 101 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.