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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Business Confidence fell to 99.8% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Turkey Business Confidence fell to 99.8% in October 2026, down 2.2% from September's 102.0% reading. The reading matched the 102.5% consensus. Business Confidence has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 102.4%, vs 103.0% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the lowest in 24 months.
Latest Release
99.8
Actual
102.5
Consensus
102
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.3 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 102.45
Actual: 99.8
Error: +2.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Turkey) was reported at 99.8% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 102.5% by 2.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 102%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 102.03%, ranging from 99.8% to 104.1% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 101.53%, down from the prior three at 103%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.33%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.27%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 100.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.3%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Nov 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Business Confidence - TR
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About Business Confidence — Turkey
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 99.8 %, consensus 102.5 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 102 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 102.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Economic Confidence Index | 97.3 | 101.3 | 101 | 99.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 25.5 | 15.9 | 27 | 26.10 | Low |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 0.4 | -0.03 | -0.1 | -0.23 | Low |