November 2025 Business Confidence in Turkey: Steady but Subdued
Key Takeaways: Turkey’s Business Confidence index held steady at 100.80 in November, matching October’s reading but slightly below the 2025 average of 101.30. Despite stable sentiment, the index remains below the early-year peak of 104.10 in March. Monetary tightening and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on optimism. Fiscal policy remains cautious amid external shocks. Financial markets showed muted reactions, reflecting uncertainty about growth prospects. Structural challenges persist, limiting upside potential in the near term.
Table of Contents
Turkey’s Business Confidence index for November 2025 was released on November 24, showing a stable reading of 100.80, unchanged from October and slightly below the 2025 average of 101.30, according to the Sigmanomics database. This stability follows a gradual decline from the year’s peak of 104.10 in March. The index remains close to the neutral 100 mark, indicating neither strong optimism nor pessimism among businesses.
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing sector sentiment steady, offsetting weakness in services.
- Inflation concerns persist, limiting confidence gains.
- Export orders stable but impacted by global demand softness.
Policy pulse
The Central Bank of Turkey’s tight monetary stance, with policy rates held above 20%, continues to restrain credit growth. Inflation remains elevated at around 35% YoY, keeping real interest rates positive but high. This environment tempers business optimism despite some easing in energy prices.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: TRY/USD remained flat post-release, reflecting market expectations of steady sentiment. The 2-year government bond yield held near 24%, signaling persistent risk premia. Equity markets showed minor gains, with the BIST 100 index up 0.30% in the first hour.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the business confidence reading. Turkey’s GDP growth slowed to an estimated 2.50% YoY in Q3 2025, down from 3.10% in Q2. Inflation remains a key challenge, with the consumer price index rising 34.80% YoY in October. Unemployment held steady at 11.20%, while the current account deficit narrowed slightly to 3.50% of GDP.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Central Bank’s policy rate stands at 22%, unchanged since September, aiming to anchor inflation expectations. Credit growth slowed to 8% YoY, reflecting tighter financial conditions. The Turkish lira remains volatile, trading near 27.50 TRY/USD, pressured by external uncertainties.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains cautious. The government targets a primary surplus of 1.50% of GDP in 2025, with public debt at 40% of GDP. Recent measures focus on supporting SMEs and export sectors, but overall spending growth is restrained amid inflationary pressures.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and regional conflicts continue to pose risks. Energy price volatility and global supply chain disruptions add uncertainty. Turkey’s trade exposure to the EU and Russia creates vulnerability to external shocks.
Compared to the previous year, the index remains 1.50 points below the November 2024 reading of 102.30, reflecting a modest erosion in confidence. The mid-year dip to 100.20 in September marked the lowest point in 2025, with the current reading showing a slight rebound.
This chart reveals a business confidence trend that is stabilizing after a volatile first half of 2025. The index’s plateau near 100 signals a wait-and-see stance among firms, balancing inflation concerns against improving external demand.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: BIST 100 index rose 0.30% post-release, reflecting relief at stable sentiment. The TRY/USD pair remained steady, while 2-year yields hovered near 24%, indicating unchanged risk perceptions.
Looking ahead, Turkey’s business confidence faces a complex outlook shaped by domestic and external factors. The baseline scenario (60% probability) foresees modest growth with confidence hovering near 100, supported by stable inflation and cautious fiscal stimulus.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Inflation falls below 25% by mid-2026, easing monetary policy.
- Improved geopolitical stability boosts exports and investment.
- Business confidence rises above 103, signaling renewed expansion.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Inflation remains above 35%, forcing further monetary tightening.
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade.
- Business confidence falls below 98, indicating contraction fears.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Turkey’s long-term growth depends on structural reforms addressing productivity, labor market flexibility, and innovation. Persistent inflation and currency volatility undermine investment. Without reforms, business confidence may remain subdued despite cyclical improvements.
In summary, Turkey’s November 2025 Business Confidence index reflects a cautious equilibrium. The stable 100.80 reading signals neither strong optimism nor pessimism amid ongoing inflation, monetary tightening, and geopolitical risks. While fiscal policy remains prudent, external shocks and structural challenges limit upside potential. Market reactions were muted, underscoring uncertainty about near-term growth. Policymakers face a delicate balance between controlling inflation and supporting business sentiment. The coming months will be critical in determining whether confidence can break above the neutral threshold and support a more robust economic expansion.
Key Markets Likely to React to Business Confidence
Business confidence in Turkey closely influences several key markets. The BIST100 index often tracks shifts in sentiment, reflecting corporate earnings outlooks. The USDTRY currency pair reacts to confidence changes through capital flows and risk appetite. The BTCUSDT pair, while less directly linked, can reflect broader risk sentiment shifts affecting emerging markets. Additionally, the AKBNK.IS bank stock is sensitive to credit conditions tied to business confidence. Lastly, the EURTRY pair also moves with geopolitical and economic sentiment changes in Turkey.
Insight: Business Confidence vs. BIST100 Index Since 2020
Since 2020, the Business Confidence index and BIST100 have shown a positive correlation of approximately 0.65. Periods of rising confidence, such as early 2021 and mid-2023, coincided with strong equity rallies. Conversely, dips in confidence during geopolitical tensions or inflation spikes corresponded with market pullbacks. This relationship underscores the index’s value as a leading indicator for Turkish equities.
FAQs
- What is the current Business Confidence level in Turkey?
- The latest reading for November 2025 is 100.80, unchanged from October and slightly below the yearly average.
- How does Business Confidence affect Turkey’s economy?
- Business Confidence reflects firms’ outlook on economic conditions, influencing investment, hiring, and growth prospects.
- What are the main risks to Turkey’s Business Confidence?
- Key risks include persistent inflation, monetary tightening, geopolitical tensions, and external demand shocks.
Takeaway: Turkey’s Business Confidence remains stable but subdued, reflecting a cautious business environment amid inflation and geopolitical risks. The index’s trajectory will be a key barometer for economic momentum in 2026.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The Business Confidence index at 100.80 in November matches October’s reading and is slightly below the 12-month average of 101.30. This stability contrasts with the sharp rise from 100.90 in January to a peak of 104.10 in March, followed by a gradual decline through mid-year.
The steady 100.80 figure suggests a plateau in business sentiment amid ongoing macroeconomic challenges. The index’s persistence near the neutral 100 level indicates cautious optimism but no clear momentum for expansion.