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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Business Confidence climbed to 102.8% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Turkey Business Confidence climbed to 102.8% in August 2026, up 0.6% from July's 102.2% reading. The reading matched the 102.5% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 2.2%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 102.85%, vs 101.63% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 75th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
102.8
Actual
102.5
Consensus
102.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.03 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 102.63
Actual: 102.8
Error: -0.17
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Turkey) was reported at 102.8% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 102.5% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 102.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 101.95%, ranging from 100.2% to 104.1% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 102.83%, up from the prior three at 102.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.33%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.43%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 100.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.03%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Consumer Confidence (Sep 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Business Confidence - TR
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About Business Confidence — Turkey
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 102.8 %, consensus 102.5 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 102.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 103.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Production YoY | -19.2 | -11 | -28.65 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Sales YoY | -25 | -15 | -27.25 | Low | |