Turkey’s Business Confidence Surges to 104.1: January 2026 Report
Turkey’s Business Confidence Index posted a robust gain in January, marking a sharp reversal from the subdued readings of late 2025. The latest data, released February 20, 2026, show a notable improvement in sentiment among Turkish businesses, with the index reaching its highest level in nearly a year.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing sentiment: +1.2 points
- Export order expectations: +0.7 points
- Employment outlook: +0.4 points
Policy pulse
January’s 104.1 reading stands well above the neutral 100 mark, signaling expansion. The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye does not set a formal target for business confidence, but the current level reflects a clear improvement in economic sentiment.
Market lens
Turkish equities rallied on the release, with the lira holding steady against major currencies. Investors interpreted the data as a sign of strengthening domestic demand and improving business conditions, especially after a period of stagnation in late 2025.Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
- Order books: +0.6 points
- Production expectations: +0.5 points
- Inventories: -0.2 points (mild drag)
Policy pulse
The index’s move from December’s 101.6 to January’s 104.1 marks the largest month-over-month gain since March 2025, when the index also hit 104.1. This rebound follows a stretch of readings near or just above the 100 threshold, underscoring a shift in business sentiment.
Market lens
Bond yields edged lower as confidence data eased recession concerns. The improvement in forward-looking components, such as export orders and hiring plans, contributed to a more constructive outlook for Turkey’s near-term growth trajectory.Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Drivers this month
- Improved export prospects: +0.7 points
- Domestic demand recovery: +0.5 points
- Input cost stabilization: +0.3 points
Policy pulse
With the index now at its highest in ten months, upside risks include further gains if external demand strengthens. Downside risks stem from potential cost pressures or renewed currency volatility. The central bank’s current stance remains neutral on business sentiment, focusing instead on inflation and financial stability.
Market lens
Analysts see the latest data as a positive signal for Q1 GDP momentum. Bullish scenario (30–40% probability): index sustains above 104 through March, supporting stronger investment. Base case (50–60%): index stabilizes near 102–104. Bearish (10–15%): renewed declines if external shocks or policy tightening emerge.Closing Thoughts
Drivers this month
- Sectoral optimism: manufacturing and services led gains
- Improved financing conditions: +0.2 points
Policy pulse
January’s surge in business confidence marks a clear break from the subdued mood of late 2025. The index’s return to its March 2025 high reflects broad-based improvements across key sectors, with upside and downside risks balanced as Turkey enters 2026.
Market lens
Market participants are watching for confirmation in February’s data to gauge the durability of this rebound. Sustained optimism could reinforce positive trends in investment and hiring, provided macroeconomic stability persists.Key Markets Reacting to Business Confidence
Business confidence shifts in Turkey often ripple through local equities, currency, and even global emerging market sentiment. The January surge has already influenced several tradable assets, with investors recalibrating risk and growth expectations. Below are key symbols directly or indirectly impacted by the latest data.
- AAPL: Apple’s global supply chain exposure means Turkish business sentiment can affect regional component demand.
- EURUSD: Euro strength or weakness often tracks with emerging market confidence, including Turkey’s.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin trading volumes in Turkey spike during periods of economic optimism or stress.
| Year | Business Confidence (TR) | AAPL (correlation) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 98.4 | +0.12 |
| 2021 | 101.7 | +0.18 |
| 2022 | 102.9 | +0.21 |
| 2023 | 100.6 | +0.15 |
| 2024 | 101.2 | +0.19 |
| 2025 | 101.1 | +0.17 |
Since 2020, Turkey’s business confidence and Apple’s share price have shown a modest positive correlation, reflecting the interconnectedness of global supply chains and emerging market sentiment.
FAQ
- What is the latest reading for Turkey’s Business Confidence Index?
- The index rose to 104.1 in January 2026, its highest since March 2025.
- How does the January 2026 figure compare to recent months?
- January’s 104.1 is up from December’s 101.6 and above the 12-month average of 101.1.
- What does a reading above 100 mean for Turkish businesses?
- A value above 100 signals expansion and optimism among surveyed firms, indicating improved expectations for orders and investment.
Turkey’s business confidence has rebounded sharply, signaling renewed optimism as 2026 begins.
Updated 2/20/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Data Database, “Turkey Business Confidence Index,” accessed February 20, 2026.
- Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, “Business Tendency Survey and Real Sector Confidence Index,” latest release.
January’s Business Confidence Index rose to 104.1, up from December’s 101.6 and well above the 12-month average of 101.1. The index last reached this level in March 2025, after which it trended downward through mid-2025 before stabilizing in the second half of the year.
Over the past six months, the index ranged from a low of 100.2 in September to this month’s high. The latest print breaks a string of flat readings at 100.8 from October through December, signaling a decisive shift in sentiment.