Turkey’s Central Government Debt Reaches 13.17 Trillion TRY: Latest Analysis and Macro Implications
Table of Contents
Turkey’s central government debt climbed to 13.17 trillion TRY in November 2025, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure represents a 1.60% increase from October’s 12.96 trillion TRY and a sharp 42.30% rise compared to November 2024’s 9.25 trillion TRY. The upward trend continues a year-long acceleration in debt accumulation, reflecting ongoing fiscal deficits and macroeconomic challenges.
Drivers this month
- Increased government borrowing to finance infrastructure and social programs.
- Higher interest costs due to monetary tightening and TRY depreciation.
- Delayed revenue inflows amid slower economic growth.
Policy pulse
The debt level remains above the 12-month average of 11.10 trillion TRY, signaling sustained fiscal expansion despite central bank efforts to curb inflation through higher interest rates. The government’s budget deficit widened to 4.50% of GDP in Q3 2025, intensifying debt service pressures.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The TRY weakened 0.80% against the USD within the first hour of the debt release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 15 basis points, reflecting investor concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation risks.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide essential context for Turkey’s rising debt. Inflation remains elevated at 28.40% YoY in October 2025, constraining real income growth and tax revenues. GDP growth slowed to 2.10% YoY in Q3, down from 3.50% in Q2, indicating a cooling economy amid tighter monetary conditions.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has raised its policy rate to 24.00% to combat inflation, the highest level since 2023. This tightening increases government borrowing costs, contributing to the debt rise. Credit spreads on sovereign bonds widened by 40 basis points over the past month, reflecting heightened risk premiums.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal deficits remain elevated, with the government running a primary deficit of 1.20% of GDP in Q3. Public spending on subsidies and social transfers increased by 8% YoY, while tax revenues grew only 4%, exacerbating borrowing needs. The debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at approximately 65%, up from 58% a year ago.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and ongoing trade frictions with key partners have pressured the TRY and foreign investment inflows. Energy price volatility and supply chain disruptions further strain fiscal balances, increasing the risk premium on government debt.
Historical comparisons show that the current debt level is the highest recorded in the past five years, surpassing the 2023 peak of 12.50 trillion TRY. The monthly growth rate has averaged 1.30% over the past year, up from 0.90% in 2023, reflecting a structural shift in fiscal dynamics.
This chart reveals a clear upward trend in Turkey’s central government debt, driven by persistent fiscal deficits and rising borrowing costs. The acceleration in debt accumulation signals growing vulnerabilities, particularly if economic growth fails to rebound or if external shocks intensify.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Sovereign bond yields jumped 15 basis points post-release, while the TRY depreciated 0.80% versus the USD, reflecting investor caution. Breakeven inflation rates edged higher, pricing in sustained inflationary pressures.
Looking ahead, Turkey’s central government debt trajectory will hinge on several key factors, including fiscal discipline, monetary policy stance, and external environment stability.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Successful fiscal consolidation reduces deficits to below 3% of GDP by mid-2026.
- Inflation moderates to single digits, enabling CBRT to ease rates gradually.
- TRY stabilizes, restoring investor confidence and lowering borrowing costs.
- Debt growth slows to under 5% YoY, improving debt-to-GDP metrics.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Fiscal deficits remain around 4-5% of GDP, with moderate spending restraint.
- Inflation declines slowly but remains above 15% through 2026.
- CBRT maintains high policy rates, keeping borrowing costs elevated.
- Debt grows at 10-12% YoY, pushing debt-to-GDP toward 70% by year-end.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical shocks and energy price spikes worsen fiscal balances.
- Inflation surges above 30%, forcing CBRT to hike rates further.
- TRY depreciates sharply, increasing foreign currency debt burdens.
- Debt growth exceeds 15% YoY, risking sovereign credit rating downgrades.
Policy coordination between fiscal authorities and the CBRT will be critical to navigating these risks. Enhanced transparency and targeted reforms could help anchor market expectations and stabilize debt dynamics.
Turkey’s central government debt continues its upward climb, reflecting persistent fiscal deficits amid challenging macroeconomic conditions. The latest 13.17 trillion TRY figure underscores the need for prudent fiscal management and monetary policy calibration. While risks from inflation, currency volatility, and geopolitical tensions remain, there is room for stabilization if reforms and external conditions improve.
Investors and policymakers should monitor debt growth closely, as sustained acceleration could undermine financial stability and economic growth prospects. Balanced approaches that combine fiscal discipline with growth-friendly policies will be essential to ensure long-term debt sustainability.
Key Markets Likely to React to Central Government Debt
Turkey’s central government debt dynamics directly influence several key markets. Sovereign bond yields and the Turkish lira are sensitive to debt growth and fiscal outlooks. Additionally, equity markets and select cryptocurrencies may react to shifts in investor risk appetite tied to Turkey’s macroeconomic environment.
- ASELS: Turkish defense stock sensitive to geopolitical risks impacting fiscal spending.
- USDTRY: Currency pair directly affected by debt levels and monetary policy.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin often reacts to macroeconomic uncertainty and currency volatility.
- THYAO: Turkish Airlines stock impacted by economic conditions and government policy.
- EURTRY: Euro-Turkish lira pair reflecting regional economic and political developments.
Since 2020, Turkey’s central government debt has shown a strong positive correlation with USDTRY exchange rate movements. As debt levels rose from 7 trillion TRY to over 13 trillion TRY, USDTRY depreciated from 6.00 to above 18.00, reflecting investor concerns over fiscal sustainability and currency risk. This relationship highlights the importance of debt management in stabilizing the TRY and controlling inflation expectations.
FAQ
- What is Turkey’s current central government debt level?
- The latest figure is 13.17 trillion TRY as of November 2025, up 1.60% from October and 42.30% year-over-year.
- How does rising debt impact Turkey’s economy?
- Higher debt increases borrowing costs, pressures the currency, and may constrain fiscal flexibility, affecting growth and inflation.
- What are the risks to Turkey’s debt outlook?
- Risks include persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, currency depreciation, and slower economic growth, which could worsen debt sustainability.
Takeaway: Turkey’s central government debt growth signals mounting fiscal challenges amid inflation and geopolitical risks. Coordinated policy action is vital to stabilize debt and support economic resilience.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.









The November 2025 central government debt figure of 13.17 trillion TRY marks a 1.60% increase from October’s 12.96 trillion TRY and significantly exceeds the 12-month average of 11.10 trillion TRY. This steady upward trajectory contrasts with the more moderate 0.80% monthly growth seen in mid-2025 and highlights accelerating fiscal pressures.
Compared to the January 2025 level of 9.25 trillion TRY, the debt has surged by 42.30%, underscoring the government’s reliance on borrowing amid subdued economic growth and inflationary challenges. The debt growth rate has outpaced nominal GDP growth, indicating a deteriorating debt sustainability profile.