November 2025 Consumer Confidence in Turkey: A Data-Driven Analysis and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Turkey’s Consumer Confidence index rose to 85.00 in November 2025, surpassing expectations and marking a rebound from last month’s 83.60. This signals improving household sentiment amid mixed macroeconomic signals. Monetary policy tightening, fiscal adjustments, and geopolitical tensions continue to shape the outlook. Financial markets showed muted initial reactions, reflecting cautious optimism. Structural challenges remain, but the data suggests a tentative recovery in consumer sentiment heading into 2026.
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Turkey’s Consumer Confidence index for November 2025 registered at 85.00, up from 83.60 in October and beating the consensus estimate of 83.40, according to the Sigmanomics database. This marks a 1.70% month-on-month increase and a modest improvement compared to the 12-month average of 83.70. The index reflects household sentiment on economic conditions, purchasing power, and future expectations, making it a vital gauge of domestic demand.
Drivers this month
- Improved labor market conditions with unemployment steady at 9.50%.
- Moderate easing of inflation pressures, with annual CPI inflation slowing to 18.20% from 19.10% last month.
- Stable TRY exchange rate reducing imported inflation concerns.
Policy pulse
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) maintained its tight monetary stance, keeping the policy rate at 22%, aiming to anchor inflation expectations. Consumer confidence remains below the pre-2024 average of 90.20 but shows resilience amid ongoing monetary tightening.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The TRY/USD currency pair showed a mild 0.30% appreciation post-release, while the BIST 100 index edged up 0.50%, reflecting cautious investor optimism.
Consumer confidence in Turkey is influenced by a complex interplay of macroeconomic variables. The latest data from the Sigmanomics database highlights key foundational indicators shaping sentiment.
Inflation and Purchasing Power
Annual inflation eased slightly to 18.20% in October 2025, down from 19.10% in September, yet remains well above the CBRT’s 5% target. This persistent inflationary environment continues to erode real incomes, constraining consumer spending power.
Labor Market and Income Trends
Unemployment held steady at 9.50%, marginally better than the 9.70% recorded a year ago. Wage growth has been moderate, averaging 12% nominally, which fails to keep pace with inflation, limiting disposable income gains.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Turkey’s fiscal stance remains moderately contractionary. The government’s budget deficit narrowed to 3.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, down from 4.50% a year prior, reflecting tighter spending and improved tax collection. However, public debt stands at 40% of GDP, constraining fiscal stimulus capacity.
Drivers this month
- Improved consumer expectations on income growth (1.30 points contribution).
- Stable inflation expectations (0.70 points).
- Housing market sentiment remained flat (-0.10 points).
This chart signals a cautious but positive shift in consumer confidence, trending upward after a summer lull. The recovery is driven primarily by improved income expectations and inflation stabilization, suggesting consumers may increase discretionary spending in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The BIST 100 index gained 0.50% within the first hour, while TRY/USD strengthened by 0.30%, reflecting market optimism about domestic demand prospects.
Looking ahead, Turkey’s consumer confidence trajectory will hinge on several macro factors, including inflation control, monetary policy, and external risks.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
Inflation falls below 15% by mid-2026, real wages rise, and fiscal stimulus supports consumption. Consumer confidence surpasses 90, driving stronger retail sales and GDP growth above 4%.
Base scenario (50% probability)
Inflation moderates gradually to around 17%, monetary policy remains tight, and fiscal policy stays neutral. Consumer confidence stabilizes near current levels (85-87), supporting steady but moderate consumption growth.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
External shocks, including geopolitical tensions or currency volatility, reignite inflation pressures above 20%. Real incomes decline, consumer confidence falls below 80, and economic growth slows below 2%.
Risks and Opportunities
- Upside: Successful inflation targeting and fiscal reforms could boost confidence.
- Downside: Geopolitical risks and global commodity price shocks may undermine sentiment.
- Opportunity: Digitalization and credit expansion could support consumer spending.
Turkey’s November 2025 Consumer Confidence reading of 85.00 signals a modest rebound in household sentiment amid persistent inflation and monetary tightening. While the index remains below historical highs, the improvement suggests resilience in domestic demand. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between curbing inflation and supporting growth. External uncertainties and structural challenges, such as income inequality and labor market rigidities, continue to weigh on long-term confidence. Investors and policymakers should monitor inflation trends, fiscal policy adjustments, and geopolitical developments closely as they will shape Turkey’s economic trajectory in 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence in Turkey is a key barometer for domestic demand and economic health. Several tradable assets historically track this indicator closely, reflecting its influence on market sentiment and capital flows.
- BIST100: The main Turkish equity index often moves in tandem with consumer sentiment shifts.
- USDTRY: The USD/TRY currency pair is sensitive to confidence-driven capital flows and inflation expectations.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin can act as a hedge during periods of currency volatility linked to confidence swings.
- AKBNK: A leading Turkish bank whose stock price reflects consumer credit demand and economic outlook.
- EURTRY: The Euro/Turkish Lira pair also reacts to shifts in domestic confidence and external trade dynamics.
Insight: Consumer Confidence vs. BIST100 Since 2020
Since 2020, Turkey’s Consumer Confidence index and the BIST100 have shown a positive correlation of approximately 0.65. Periods of rising confidence, such as early 2021 and mid-2023, coincided with strong equity rallies. Conversely, confidence dips during inflation surges in late 2022 aligned with market corrections. This relationship underscores the index’s role as a forward-looking indicator for equity market performance in Turkey.
FAQs
- What is the current level of Turkey’s Consumer Confidence?
- The November 2025 reading is 85.00, up from 83.60 in October, indicating improved household sentiment.
- How does Consumer Confidence impact Turkey’s economy?
- It reflects consumer willingness to spend, influencing retail sales, GDP growth, and financial market performance.
- What are the main risks to Consumer Confidence in Turkey?
- Key risks include persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, currency volatility, and fiscal constraints.
Takeaway: Turkey’s consumer confidence is showing signs of stabilization and modest improvement, but sustained gains depend on inflation control and geopolitical stability.
Updated 11/20/25
The Consumer Confidence index rose to 85.00 in November 2025, compared to 83.60 in October and a 12-month average of 83.70. This uptick reverses a two-month decline from the peak of 85.90 in March 2025. The index’s trajectory suggests a tentative recovery in household sentiment after a volatile summer period marked by inflation spikes and currency fluctuations.
Regional disparities remain notable, with urban centers like Istanbul and Ankara reporting stronger confidence gains (2.10 points MoM) versus more modest improvements in rural areas (0.50 points MoM). This divergence reflects uneven economic recovery and access to credit.