Turkey’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for November 2025 registered at 83.50, down 1.50 points from October’s 85.00 and slightly below the consensus estimate of 83.00, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This decline interrupts a relatively stable trend observed since mid-2025, where the index hovered between 83.60 and 85.90. Compared to the same month last year (November 2024), the index remains broadly flat, indicating persistent consumer caution despite ongoing economic adjustments.

Drivers This Month

• Rising inflation pressures and elevated borrowing costs weighed on household sentiment.
• Volatility in the Turkish lira (TRY) amid geopolitical tensions dampened confidence.
• Government fiscal tightening and uncertainty over budget allocations contributed to cautious spending outlooks.

Policy Pulse

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) maintained a hawkish stance in November, keeping the policy rate elevated at 22%, aiming to curb inflation that remains above the 5% target. This monetary tightening has increased financial costs for consumers, reflected in the subdued confidence reading.

Market Lens

Following the release, the Turkish lira (TRY) depreciated modestly against the US dollar, while short-term government bond yields edged higher, signaling market concerns about near-term consumption and growth prospects.

Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of household spending, which accounts for roughly 55% of Turkey’s GDP. The November 2025 reading of 83.50 contrasts with the 12-month average of 84.20, reflecting a slight erosion in optimism. Inflation remains a core macroeconomic challenge, with the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 38.70% as of November, well above the CBRT’s target. This persistent inflationary environment has eroded real incomes and purchasing power.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The CBRT’s policy rate has remained at a restrictive 22% since September 2025, aiming to anchor inflation expectations. However, real interest rates remain negative when adjusted for inflation, limiting the effectiveness of monetary tightening. Credit growth has slowed, particularly in consumer loans, which aligns with the dip in confidence.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal consolidation efforts continue, with the government targeting a primary surplus of 1.50% of GDP in 2025. However, increased spending on social programs and subsidies to offset inflationary impacts have constrained budget flexibility. The cautious consumer sentiment partly reflects uncertainty about future tax policies and subsidy sustainability.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Turkey’s geopolitical environment remains complex, with ongoing tensions in neighboring regions and fluctuating relations with key trade partners. These external risks contribute to currency volatility and inflationary pressures, further dampening consumer confidence.

Drivers This Month

• Inflation’s persistence continues to erode real income growth.
• Monetary tightening has increased borrowing costs, reducing discretionary spending.
• Geopolitical uncertainties have heightened economic risk perceptions.

Policy Pulse

The CBRT’s current stance, while necessary to combat inflation, risks further dampening consumer sentiment if prolonged. The index’s decline may prompt policymakers to consider calibrated easing once inflation shows sustained improvement.

Market Lens

Immediate reaction: The TRY/USD exchange rate depreciated by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 5 basis points, reflecting increased risk premiums.

Looking ahead, Turkey’s consumer confidence trajectory will hinge on several factors. The base case scenario (60% probability) anticipates a gradual stabilization around 83-84 as inflation moderates and fiscal measures support household incomes. A bullish scenario (20% probability) envisions a sharper rebound above 85, driven by successful inflation containment and improved geopolitical stability. Conversely, a bearish scenario (20% probability) foresees a further decline below 82 if inflation remains sticky, the lira weakens further, or fiscal tightening intensifies.

Upside Risks

• Effective monetary policy transmission reducing inflation expectations.
• Government stimulus measures targeting vulnerable households.
• Improved external trade conditions and geopolitical détente.

Downside Risks

• Prolonged inflationary pressures eroding real incomes.
• Currency depreciation increasing import costs.
• Fiscal consolidation tightening disposable income.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Turkey’s consumer confidence has exhibited volatility over the past five years, influenced by inflation cycles, currency shocks, and political developments. Structural reforms aimed at enhancing productivity and stabilizing inflation will be crucial to sustaining consumer sentiment in the long run.

November 2025’s Consumer Confidence Index reading of 83.50 underscores the cautious mood among Turkish households amid persistent inflation and monetary tightening. While the decline from October’s 85.00 is modest, it signals potential headwinds for domestic consumption growth in the near term. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between taming inflation and supporting consumer spending. Market participants should monitor upcoming inflation prints, fiscal policy announcements, and geopolitical developments closely, as these will shape Turkey’s economic trajectory and consumer sentiment into 2026.

Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence data often influences currency, bond, and equity markets in Turkey. The following tradable symbols historically track shifts in Turkish consumer sentiment and macroeconomic conditions:

• USDTRY – The USD/TRY currency pair is sensitive to confidence shifts, reflecting currency risk and inflation expectations.
• BIST100 – Turkey’s benchmark equity index often reacts to changes in domestic consumption outlook.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against inflation and currency volatility links it indirectly to consumer sentiment in emerging markets.
• EURTRY – The Euro/Turkish lira pair reflects regional trade and geopolitical risk factors impacting confidence.
• AKBNK.IS – Akbank’s stock price is a bellwether for Turkish banking sector health, sensitive to consumer credit trends.

FAQs

What does the November 2025 Consumer Confidence Index indicate for Turkey’s economy?

The 83.50 reading suggests cautious consumer sentiment amid inflation and monetary tightening, signaling moderate near-term consumption growth.

How does consumer confidence affect Turkey’s financial markets?

Lower confidence tends to pressure the Turkish lira and equity markets, while increasing bond yields due to risk premiums.

What are the main risks to Turkey’s consumer confidence outlook?

Persistent inflation, currency volatility, and fiscal tightening pose downside risks, while easing inflation and fiscal support offer upside potential.

Final takeaway: Turkey’s November 2025 consumer confidence decline highlights ongoing economic challenges, with inflation and monetary policy at the core. The outlook remains balanced but tilted toward caution as policymakers navigate complex headwinds.

Updated 12/19/25

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.