Turkey CPI Surges to 25.38% in February, Extending Inflation Pressures
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Food prices: +0.42 percentage points
- Housing: +0.27pp
- Transport: +0.18pp
- Clothing: -0.05pp
Policy pulse
February’s CPI reading of 25.38% stands far above the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s medium-term inflation target of 5%[1]. The persistent gap underscores ongoing monetary policy challenges.
Market lens
The Turkish lira weakened further against major currencies after the CPI release. Investors remain wary of entrenched inflation and its impact on real yields, with local bond markets reflecting heightened risk premiums. The sustained inflationary trend continues to weigh on consumer confidence and business sentiment.
Foundational Indicators
Recent trend
February’s 25.38% CPI marks a notable acceleration from January’s 24.11%. The 12-month average for Turkey’s CPI stands at 28.06%, with the latest figure reversing a brief slowdown seen in January. November 2025 registered the highest recent reading at 32.87%.
Historical comparisons
- November 2025: 32.87%
- December 2025: 31.07%
- January 2026: 23.23%
- February 2026: 25.38%
Methodology
The Turkish Statistical Institute calculates CPI using a weighted basket of goods and services, updated annually to reflect consumption patterns. Data is sourced directly from the Sigmanomics database and official releases[1].
Chart Dynamics
Alt text: Line chart showing Turkey’s CPI from November 2025 (32.87%) to February 2026 (25.38%), with a dip in January and renewed rise in February.
What This Chart Tells Us: Turkey’s inflation trajectory remains unstable. After a sharp drop in January, February’s CPI rebound signals renewed price pressures. The data suggest inflation is not yet anchored, with upside risks dominating the near-term outlook.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (15–25% probability): CPI moderates below 23% by mid-2026 if monetary tightening gains traction and food prices stabilize.
- Base case (55–65%): Inflation fluctuates between 23–27% through Q2, with persistent cost pressures from energy and housing.
- Bearish (15–25%): CPI accelerates above 28% if currency depreciation resumes or external shocks hit import prices.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include renewed lira weakness and global commodity volatility. Downside risks hinge on successful policy tightening and improved harvests. The central bank’s credibility and external financing conditions remain pivotal.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Turkish equities and bonds saw increased volatility following the CPI release. Investors are recalibrating expectations for real returns and policy direction. The inflation outlook remains a central driver for both domestic and foreign capital flows.
Policy pulse
With inflation entrenched well above target, the central bank faces mounting pressure to sustain a restrictive stance. The path forward will depend on both domestic reforms and external market conditions.
Key Markets Reacting to CPI
Turkey’s inflation data reverberates across multiple asset classes. The Turkish lira, global equities, and select cryptocurrencies all exhibit sensitivity to CPI surprises. Below are key tradable symbols with direct or indirect exposure to Turkish macro trends.
- AAPL: Apple’s global supply chain and emerging market sales can be affected by Turkish inflation and currency swings.
- EURUSD: Euro-dollar volatility often tracks emerging market inflation shocks, including Turkey’s CPI prints.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin trading volumes in Turkey typically rise during periods of high inflation and lira weakness.
| Indicator | Symbol | 2020 Value | Latest Value | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (TR) | BTCUSD | 11.84% | 25.38% | +114.4% |
Since 2020, Turkey’s CPI has more than doubled. Over the same period, BTCUSD volumes in Turkey have surged, reflecting growing demand for inflation hedges as the lira depreciates.
FAQ: Turkey CPI Surges to 25.38% in February, Extending Inflation Pressures
- What is the latest CPI figure for Turkey?
- Turkey’s consumer price index (CPI) for February stands at 25.38%, up from 24.11% in January.
- What are the main drivers behind the February CPI increase?
- Food, housing, and transport costs contributed most to the monthly rise, offset slightly by lower clothing prices.
- How does this CPI reading affect Turkish markets?
- The persistent inflation pressures have led to further lira weakness and increased volatility in Turkish equities and bonds.
Turkey’s inflation remains stubbornly high, keeping the lira and local markets on edge.
Updated 3/13/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Sigmanomics Economic Data, Turkish Statistical Institute, CPI releases, accessed 3/13/26.
February’s CPI print of 25.38% outpaced January’s 24.11% and stands above the recent low of 23.23% in January. The 12-month average remains elevated at 28.06%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures. Compared to December’s 31.07%, the current figure signals a partial reacceleration after a brief dip.
Over the past six months, CPI peaked at 32.87% in November 2025, then moderated before climbing again in February. The latest reading is the highest since December, reversing January’s decline and highlighting ongoing volatility in price levels.