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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey CPI fell to 30.65% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
Turkey CPI fell to 30.65% in January 2026, released February 2026, down 0.24% from December's 30.89% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 23.42%. Over the past 3 months, CPI averaged 23.67%, vs 21.53% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 65th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
30.65
Actual
30
Consensus
30.89
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.53 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 29.88
Actual: 30.65
Error: -0.77
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (Turkey) was reported at 29.21% in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 29.14%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 23.68%, ranging from 0.87% to 33.52% across 19 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 29.1%, up from the prior three at 17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 11.65%) is lower than the prior year (σ 14.36%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/TRY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.53%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CPI YoY (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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CPI - TR
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About CPI — Turkey
DEFINITION
CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households. It is an important tool for assessing inflation and the overall cost of living for consumers. The CPI is calculated by tracking the prices of a basket of goods and services over time, providing valuable insights into the current state of the economy and its impact on consumers. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions about economic trends and financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 29.21 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 29.14 %. Before that (May 2026): 28.94 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.50) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 15.9 | 9.9 | 18 | 16.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Exports | 24.9 | 22.4 | 24.94 | 25.91 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Imports | 35.3 | 28.1 | 35.3 | 36.40 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Balance of Trade | -10.37 | -5.65 | -10.4 | -10.52 | Medium |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -4.02 | -3.58 | -3 | -3.51 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index YoY | 28.09 | 27.4 | 27.45 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.99 | 1.83 | 2.28 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.8 | 1 | 1.30 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate YoY | 32.11 | 31.8 | 32.36 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.1 | 47.5 | 46.25 | Low | |