Turkey’s current account balance for November 2025 registered a surplus of $1.10 billion, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure, while significantly lower than October’s exceptional $5.40 billion surplus, represents a strong rebound from the negative balances recorded in the first half of the year. The current account has swung from a deficit of -$7.86 billion in June to positive territory since September, signaling a structural shift in external balances.

Drivers this month

• Exports remained resilient, supported by strong demand in Europe and the Middle East.
• Imports contracted due to weaker domestic demand and higher borrowing costs.
• Energy prices stabilized, reducing the import bill volatility.

Policy pulse

The current account surplus aligns with the Central Bank of Turkey’s tighter monetary stance aimed at curbing inflation and stabilizing the lira. The improved external balance eases pressure on foreign reserves and supports the central bank’s inflation targeting framework.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Turkish lira (TRY) appreciated modestly by 0.30% against the USD within the first hour of the data release, reflecting market confidence in external balance improvements. Short-term yields on Turkish government bonds also tightened slightly.

The current account surplus of $1.10 billion in November contrasts sharply with the average deficit of -$3.50 billion recorded over the prior 12 months. This turnaround is notable given Turkey’s persistent external imbalances in early 2025, including a peak deficit of -$7.86 billion in June. The monthly surplus is also above the $1 billion consensus estimate, underscoring stronger-than-expected external sector resilience.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

Turkey’s central bank has maintained elevated policy rates near 25%, which has dampened import demand and capital outflows. Financial conditions tightened, with credit growth slowing to 8% YoY in October from 15% earlier in the year. This has contributed to a moderation in domestic consumption and import volumes.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal consolidation efforts, including reduced subsidies and improved tax collection, have helped contain the budget deficit. However, government debt remains elevated at 40% of GDP, posing medium-term risks to fiscal sustainability if external financing conditions deteriorate.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Geopolitical tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and regional trade disruptions continue to pose downside risks. Energy price volatility remains a wildcard, although recent stabilization has helped Turkey’s import bill. The global slowdown in manufacturing demand also tempers export growth prospects.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The TRY/USD exchange rate strengthened by 0.30%, while 2-year government bond yields fell by 15 basis points, reflecting improved investor sentiment on external balances.

Looking ahead, Turkey’s current account trajectory depends on several factors. The base case scenario (60% probability) envisions continued modest surpluses around $1–$2 billion monthly, supported by stable exports and contained import growth amid tight monetary policy.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Stronger global demand, especially from the EU and Middle East.
• Further energy price declines reducing import costs.
• Improved geopolitical stability boosting trade flows.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Renewed geopolitical tensions disrupting trade routes.
• Sharp energy price spikes increasing import bills.
• Domestic fiscal slippages undermining investor confidence.

Structural & long-run trends

Turkey’s external balance has historically been vulnerable to energy price swings and capital flow volatility. The recent improvement suggests progress in export diversification and import substitution. However, long-term sustainability requires continued structural reforms, fiscal discipline, and enhanced geopolitical risk management.

Turkey’s November 2025 current account surplus of $1.10 billion marks a significant recovery from earlier deficits, reflecting stronger exports and subdued imports amid tighter monetary policy. While the October surplus of $5.40 billion was exceptional, the current print confirms a positive trend. Risks remain from external shocks and fiscal pressures, but the improved external position supports currency stability and macroeconomic resilience. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth to sustain this momentum.

Since 2020, Turkey’s current account balance and the USDTRY exchange rate have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of current account deficits often coincide with TRY depreciation, while surpluses support TRY appreciation. For example, the mid-2025 deficit peak of -$7.86 billion coincided with TRY weakness, whereas recent surpluses have bolstered the currency. This relationship underscores the importance of external balances in shaping Turkey’s FX market dynamics.

Takeaway: Turkey’s current account surplus in November 2025 reflects a pivotal recovery, but sustaining this trend requires vigilant policy and risk management amid ongoing external uncertainties.