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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Economic Confidence Index climbed to 97.2 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Turkey Economic Confidence Index climbed to 97.2 in May 2026, up 0.8 from April's 96.4 reading. The reading matched the 96.5 consensus. Over the past 3 months, Economic Confidence Index averaged 98.33, vs 99.47 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 44th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
97.2
Actual
96.5
Consensus
96.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.71
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 96.13
Actual: 97.2
Error: -1.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Economic Confidence Index (Turkey) was reported at 97.20 in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 96.50 by 0.70. The reading rose from the previous value of 96.40. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 98.30, ranging from 96.30 to 100.70 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 98.60, down from the prior three at 99.47. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.28) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.21). In May readings over the past 3 years, Economic Confidence Index has averaged 97.37.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.71.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 19) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Economic Confidence Index - TR
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About Economic Confidence Index — Turkey
DEFINITION
The Economic Confidence Index is a key financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and outlook of individuals and businesses towards the economy. It takes into account various factors such as consumer spending, job market, and business investment to provide a comprehensive assessment of economic confidence. This index is widely used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to gauge the health of the economy and make informed decisions. A high index value indicates a positive outlook, while a low value suggests a lack of confidence in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 97.2, consensus 96.5. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 96.4. Before that (Mar 2026): 97.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.61) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.