Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Economic Confidence Index climbed to 99.8 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Turkey Economic Confidence Index climbed to 99.8 in July 2026, up 0.9 from June's 98.9 reading. The reading matched the 98.4 consensus. Economic Confidence Index has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Economic Confidence Index averaged 98.05, vs 98.33 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 90th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
99.8
Actual
98.4
Consensus
98.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.71
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 98.68
Actual: 99.8
Error: -1.12
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Economic Confidence Index (Turkey) was reported at 99.80 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 98.40 by 1.40. The reading rose from the previous value of 98.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 98.82, ranging from 97.20 to 100.70 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 98.63, down from the prior three at 99.33. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.01) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.03). In July readings over the past 3 years, Economic Confidence Index has averaged 96.83.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/TRY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.71.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Economic Confidence Index - TR
Loading chart data...
About Economic Confidence Index — Turkey
DEFINITION
The Economic Confidence Index is a key financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and outlook of individuals and businesses towards the economy. It takes into account various factors such as consumer spending, job market, and business investment to provide a comprehensive assessment of economic confidence. This index is widely used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to gauge the health of the economy and make informed decisions. A high index value indicates a positive outlook, while a low value suggests a lack of confidence in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 99.8, consensus 98.4. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 98.9. Before that (May 2026): 97.2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.61) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 15.9 | 9.9 | 18 | 16.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Exports | 24.9 | 22.4 | 24.94 | 25.91 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Imports | 35.3 | 28.1 | 35.3 | 36.40 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Balance of Trade | -10.37 | -5.65 | -10.4 | -10.52 | Medium |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -4.02 | -3.58 | -3 | -3.51 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index YoY | 28.09 | 27.4 | 27.45 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.99 | 1.83 | 2.28 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.8 | 1 | 1.30 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate YoY | 32.11 | 31.8 | 32.36 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.1 | 47.5 | 46.25 | Low | |