Turkey’s Exports Plunge to 20.3B TRY in January: Steepest Monthly Decline Since 2025
Turkey’s export sector posted its weakest monthly performance in over half a year, as January’s official data revealed a significant contraction. The latest figures highlight mounting external pressures and shifting global demand patterns.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Automotive shipments: -0.9B TRY
- Textiles: -0.6B TRY
- Machinery: -0.4B TRY
Policy pulse
January’s export reading of 20.3B TRY sits well below the Turkish government’s 2026 monthly target of 25B TRY, underscoring the challenge of meeting annual trade objectives.
Market lens
TRY weakened modestly on the release, as traders digested the sharp MoM contraction. The lira’s reaction reflected concerns over export-driven growth and the potential for wider current account deficits.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- January 2026: 20.3B TRY
- December 2025: 26.4B TRY
- November 2025: 22.5B TRY
- October 2025: 22.7B TRY
- September 2025: 23.9B TRY
- August 2025: 24.0B TRY
MoM and YoY trends
The 23.1% MoM drop from December’s 26.4B TRY to January’s 20.3B TRY is the steepest since at least August 2025. Compared to January 2025, the figure is also lower, reflecting a YoY contraction.
Methodology and sources
Data are sourced from the Sigmanomics database and official Turkish trade statistics, based on customs-cleared goods in nominal TRY terms.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (20%): Exports rebound to 23B–24B TRY in coming months if global demand stabilizes.
- Base (60%): Exports remain in the 20B–22B TRY range as headwinds persist.
- Bearish (20%): Further declines below 20B TRY if external conditions worsen.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include a recovery in European demand and improved logistics. Downside risks stem from geopolitical tensions and currency volatility.
Policy pulse
With exports trailing the government’s monthly target by nearly 20%, policymakers face renewed pressure to support trade competitiveness.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Equity and currency markets responded with caution, as the export miss raised concerns about Turkey’s external balances. Investors are watching for policy signals and further data to gauge the durability of the downturn.
Key takeaways
- January’s 20.3B TRY export figure is the lowest since August 2025.
- MoM decline of 23.1% is the sharpest in over a year.
- Risks remain skewed to the downside absent a swift recovery in external demand.
Key Markets Reacting to Exports
Turkey’s export data has immediate implications for global markets, especially those with exposure to emerging market currencies and trade-sensitive equities. The sharp January drop has prompted traders to reassess positions in both the lira and related international assets. Here are several tradable symbols that have shown sensitivity to Turkish export trends:
- AAPL – Indirect exposure via global supply chains and emerging market demand.
- EURUSD – Sensitive to shifts in European import demand from Turkey.
- BTCUSD – Sometimes used as a hedge during emerging market currency volatility.
| Year | Exports (TRY B) | EURUSD (avg) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 15.8 | 1.14 |
| 2021 | 18.2 | 1.18 |
| 2022 | 19.6 | 1.05 |
| 2023 | 20.1 | 1.08 |
| 2024 | 21.7 | 1.09 |
| 2025 | 22.9 | 1.07 |
Since 2020, Turkish exports and EURUSD have shown moderate correlation, with export surges often coinciding with euro strength. The January 2026 drop may pressure the pair if trade flows weaken further.
FAQ
- What is the latest figure for Turkey’s exports?
- Turkey’s exports totaled 20.3B TRY in January 2026, marking the lowest monthly reading since August 2025.
- Why did Turkish exports fall so sharply in January?
- The 23.1% MoM decline was driven by weaker automotive, textile, and machinery shipments, as well as softer external demand.
- How does this affect the Turkish economy?
- The sharp export drop increases pressure on the lira and complicates efforts to narrow the current account deficit.
Turkey’s export sector faces renewed headwinds after January’s steep contraction, with risks skewed to the downside.
Updated 2/26/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics database, Turkey Exports, accessed February 26, 2026.
- Turkish Statistical Institute, Foreign Trade Statistics, January 2026 release.
January’s export print of 20.3B TRY marks a sharp reversal from December’s 26.4B TRY and falls well below the six-month average of 23.3B TRY. This is the lowest monthly export value since at least August 2025. The abrupt decline interrupts a period of relative stability observed in late 2025, when monthly exports hovered between 22.5B and 24.0B TRY.
November’s 22.5B TRY and October’s 22.7B TRY readings now look robust by comparison, highlighting the scale of January’s drop. The latest figure is also 15.7% below the six-month average, underscoring the severity of the contraction.