December 2025 Exports Report for Turkey: A Data-Driven Analysis
Table of Contents
Turkey’s export figures for December 2025, as reported by the Sigmanomics database, reveal a contraction to TRY 22.70 billion. This is a notable decline from November’s TRY 23.90 billion, reversing a short-term recovery seen since September. The export value remains close to the 12-month average of TRY 22.40 billion, suggesting a stabilization around this level despite recent volatility.
Drivers this month
- Global demand slowdown in key markets such as the EU and Middle East.
- Currency volatility impacting pricing competitiveness.
- Supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in the region.
Policy pulse
The Central Bank of Turkey’s recent tightening cycle, with policy rates raised by 150 basis points over the past quarter, has increased borrowing costs. This has dampened export financing and investment in export-oriented sectors.
Market lens
Following the release, the TRY/USD pair depreciated by 0.30%, reflecting market concerns over export softness. The BIST 100 index dropped 0.50%, signaling investor caution. Breakeven inflation rates edged higher, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that could affect export margins.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the export performance. Turkey’s GDP growth slowed to an annualized 2.10% in Q3 2025, down from 3.00% in Q2. Inflation remains elevated at 18.20% YoY, pressuring real incomes and costs. The current account deficit widened to 3.50% of GDP, partly due to weaker export receipts.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Central Bank’s policy rate now stands at 16.50%, up from 15.00% three months ago. Tighter financial conditions have increased the cost of trade finance, constraining exporters. Credit growth to the manufacturing sector slowed to 4.20% YoY, the lowest in two years.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Turkey’s fiscal deficit narrowed slightly to 2.80% of GDP in November 2025, reflecting moderate revenue gains and controlled spending. However, limited fiscal space restricts stimulus options to support exporters amid global headwinds.
Seasonally adjusted data indicate that exports have struggled to regain momentum amid rising input costs and external demand shocks. The export basket’s composition shows weakness in textiles and automotive sectors, which together account for 40% of total exports.
This chart highlights a clear reversal in export growth momentum after a brief rebound. The downward trend suggests that external and domestic headwinds are increasingly constraining Turkey’s export capacity. Monitoring subsequent months will be critical to assess if this is a temporary setback or a longer-term structural shift.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The TRY depreciated 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over export earnings. The BIST 100 index fell 0.50%, while 2-year government bond yields rose 12 basis points, signaling increased risk premiums.
Looking ahead, Turkey’s export trajectory faces multiple scenarios shaped by global and domestic factors.
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
- Global demand recovers as EU economies stabilize.
- Currency stabilizes, improving price competitiveness.
- Supply chain disruptions ease, boosting manufacturing output.
- Exports grow 5-7% YoY by mid-2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Modest global growth with persistent inflationary pressures.
- TRY remains volatile but contained within current ranges.
- Exports hover near current levels, with 1-3% YoY growth.
- Fiscal and monetary policies remain cautious but supportive.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade routes.
- TRY depreciates sharply, increasing input costs.
- Global recession risks materialize, reducing demand.
- Exports contract 5-10% YoY, deepening current account pressures.
These scenarios underscore the importance of policy coordination and external developments. The Sigmanomics database methodology integrates trade customs data, financial market indicators, and macroeconomic statistics to provide a comprehensive export outlook.
Turkey’s December 2025 export data reveal a fragile recovery interrupted by renewed headwinds. While exports remain near their 12-month average, the MoM decline signals caution. Monetary tightening and geopolitical risks weigh heavily on trade dynamics. Financial markets responded with increased volatility, reflecting uncertainty over Turkey’s external sector resilience.
Policymakers face a delicate balancing act: supporting exporters amid inflation and fiscal constraints while navigating global uncertainties. The export sector’s health will be a key barometer for Turkey’s broader economic trajectory in 2026.
Investors and analysts should monitor upcoming trade data releases, currency movements, and geopolitical developments closely. The interplay of these factors will determine whether Turkey’s export sector can regain sustainable growth or face prolonged stagnation.
Key Markets Likely to React to Exports
Turkey’s export performance directly influences several key markets. Export data impacts currency valuation, equity indices, and commodity-linked stocks. The following symbols historically track export trends or are sensitive to Turkey’s trade dynamics:
- USDTTRY – The USD/TRY currency pair reacts strongly to export data, reflecting trade balance shifts and monetary policy expectations.
- BIST100 – Turkey’s main stock index, sensitive to export sector earnings and investor sentiment.
- TOASO – An automotive sector stock, closely linked to export volumes in vehicles and parts.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects broader risk sentiment, which can be influenced by export and macroeconomic data.
- EURTRY – The Euro/Turkish Lira pair is sensitive to Turkey’s trade relations with the EU, its largest export destination.
FAQs
- What does the December 2025 export figure indicate for Turkey’s economy?
- The TRY 22.70 billion export figure suggests a short-term decline but remains near the annual average, indicating moderate external sector stability amid challenges.
- How does monetary policy affect Turkey’s exports?
- Tightening monetary policy raises financing costs, reducing export sector investment and dampening trade growth.
- What are the main risks to Turkey’s export outlook?
- Key risks include global demand shocks, geopolitical tensions, currency volatility, and domestic fiscal constraints.
Takeaway: Turkey’s export sector faces a critical juncture. While near-term softness is evident, policy responses and external developments will shape whether exports rebound or falter in 2026.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The December export figure of TRY 22.70 billion is down 5.00% from November’s TRY 23.90 billion and slightly above the 12-month average of TRY 22.40 billion. This decline interrupts a two-month recovery phase that saw exports rise from a low of TRY 21.70 billion in late September.
Key figure: The 5.00% MoM drop contrasts with a 3.50% average monthly growth rate recorded between August and October 2025, signaling renewed export challenges.