Key Takeaways: Turkey's GDP Growth Rate QoQ slowed to 0.4% in February 2026 from 1.1% in January, marking the lowest quarterly expansion since November 2024. The print undershot consensus estimates and signals a deceleration in economic momentum.
Turkey’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ: February 2026 Data Review
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Private consumption: +0.13pp
- Construction: +0.09pp
- Net exports: -0.08pp
Policy pulse
The 0.4% quarterly GDP growth in February 2026 fell well below the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s medium-term target of 1.2%. Policymakers face renewed pressure to balance growth and inflation.Market lens
TRY-denominated assets saw muted trading after the release. Investors interpreted the weaker-than-expected print as a sign of cooling domestic demand, with Turkish equities giving up early gains and the lira holding steady against major currencies.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
February’s 0.4% GDP growth marks a sharp slowdown from January’s 1.1% and is the weakest reading since November 2024’s -0.2%. Over the past six months, quarterly growth averaged 1.07%, with a high of 2.4% in May 2024 and a low of 0.1% in September 2024.Comparative perspective
The latest figure also trails the 1.0% consensus estimate and is below the 1.6% posted in September 2025. Year-over-year, Turkey’s economy expanded at a slower pace, reflecting tighter financial conditions and softer external demand.Methodology and source
Data is sourced from the Turkish Statistical Institute and Sigmanomics[1], calculated on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis to reflect underlying economic trends.Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: Turkey’s GDP growth has lost steam after a mid-2024 surge, with the latest reading confirming a clear downtrend. The economy is struggling to regain momentum, and the risk of stagnation is rising if headwinds persist.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish: Growth rebounds above 1% in the next quarter if fiscal stimulus and export demand strengthen (probability: 25–35%).
- Base: GDP growth stabilizes between 0.3% and 0.7% as domestic demand remains subdued (probability: 50–60%).
- Bearish: Output slips below 0.2% or turns negative amid persistent inflation and weak investment (probability: 10–20%).
Risks and opportunities
Upside risks include a recovery in tourism and easing global financial conditions. Downside risks stem from high inflation, tight credit, and geopolitical uncertainty.Data caveats
All projections are based on official quarterly releases and do not incorporate subsequent revisions or extraordinary events.Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Turkish equities and the lira showed little sustained reaction to the GDP release. Investors appear cautious, awaiting further signals on policy direction and external demand. The muted response reflects a consensus that growth headwinds are now well understood and largely priced in.Policy pulse
The central bank’s challenge is to support growth without reigniting inflation. With GDP growth now below target, monetary authorities may face renewed calls for easing, though inflationary pressures remain a constraint.Key Markets Reacting to GDP Growth Rate QoQ
Turkey’s GDP data influences a range of asset classes, from equities to currencies and crypto. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, are among those most sensitive to shifts in Turkish economic momentum:
- AAPL (US equities): Often used as a global risk proxy; Turkish growth slowdowns can weigh on emerging market sentiment, indirectly affecting large-cap US stocks.
- EURUSD (Forex): The euro’s performance is linked to Turkish trade flows and regional risk appetite, with GDP surprises occasionally moving the pair.
- BTCUSD (Crypto): Bitcoin trading volumes in Turkey often spike during periods of economic uncertainty, making GDP prints a volatility trigger.
| Quarter | GDP Growth QoQ (%) | AAPL (Quarterly % Change) |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2024 | 2.4 | +8.1 |
| Q4 2024 | -0.2 | -2.3 |
| Q1 2025 | 1.7 | +6.7 |
| Q1 2026 | 0.4 | +1.2 |
Since 2020, AAPL’s performance has loosely tracked major swings in Turkey’s GDP growth, with risk-on quarters often coinciding with stronger Turkish output.
FAQ
- What is the latest GDP Growth Rate QoQ for Turkey?
- The most recent figure is 0.4% for February 2026, down from 1.1% in January.
- How does Turkey’s GDP growth compare to previous months?
- February’s reading is the lowest since November 2024, when GDP contracted by 0.2%.
- What does the GDP Growth Rate QoQ indicate about Turkey’s economy?
- It measures quarterly economic expansion. The latest slowdown signals weaker domestic demand and external headwinds.
Turkey’s GDP growth has decelerated sharply, raising questions about the durability of its recovery.
Updated 3/2/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics database, Turkish Statistical Institute, GDP Growth Rate QoQ releases (2023–2026).
The deceleration follows a period of above-trend growth in mid-2024, when GDP surged by 2.4% in May. Since then, momentum has faded, with three of the last five quarters registering below-average gains.