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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 2.5% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Turkey Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 2.5% in January 2026, released June 2026, down 0.9% from December's 3.4% reading. The reading missed the 2.7% consensus by 0.2%. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
2.5
Actual
2.7
Consensus
3.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.35 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.7
Actual: 2.5
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Turkey) was reported at 2.5% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.7% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.2%, down from the prior three at 3.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/TRY (Bullish TRY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/TRY, negatively correlated (Bullish TRY). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.35%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - TR
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Turkey
DEFINITION
Turkey's Gross Domestic Product YoY came in at 2.500000% for May, missing the 2.700000% estimate. This marks a decline from March's 3.400000%, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. The softer reading may influence market pricing and monetary policy considerations ahead of upcoming releases. Updated 6/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 2.5 %, consensus 2.7 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 3.4 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 3.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/TRY (Bullish TRY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 15.9 | 9.9 | 18 | 16.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Exports | 24.9 | 22.4 | 24.94 | 25.91 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Imports | 35.3 | 28.1 | 35.3 | 36.40 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Balance of Trade | -10.37 | -5.65 | -10.4 | -10.52 | Medium |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -4.02 | -3.58 | -3 | -3.51 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index YoY | 28.09 | 27.4 | 27.45 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.99 | 1.83 | 2.28 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.8 | 1 | 1.30 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate YoY | 32.11 | 31.8 | 32.36 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.1 | 47.5 | 46.25 | Low | |