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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 2.3% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Turkey Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 2.3% in April 2026, released August 2026, down 0.3% from March's 2.6% reading. The reading missed the 2.9% consensus by 0.6%. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
2.9
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.9
Actual: 2.3
Error: +0.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Turkey) was reported at 2.3% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.9% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.73%, down from the prior three at 3.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/TRY (Bullish TRY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/TRY, negatively correlated (Bullish TRY). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Sep 21) and Consumer Confidence (Sep 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - TR
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Turkey
DEFINITION
Turkey's Gross Domestic Product YoY came in at 2.300000% for August, missing the 2.900000% estimate. This marks a decline from June's 2.500000%, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. The softer reading may influence market expectations and central bank policy ahead of upcoming releases. Updated 8/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.3 %, consensus 2.9 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.5 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/TRY (Bullish TRY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Production YoY | -19.2 | -11 | -28.65 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Sales YoY | -25 | -15 | -27.25 | Low | |