Turkey’s Imports Plunge to 28.70B TRY in February, Hitting 15-Month Low
Turkey’s import activity saw a pronounced decline in February 2026, with official data showing a drop to 28.70 billion Turkish lira. This is the lowest monthly figure since late 2024, reflecting shifting trade dynamics and domestic demand pressures.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers This Month
- Energy imports: -0.9pp
- Consumer goods: -0.5pp
- Intermediate goods: -0.4pp
Policy Pulse
February’s import value of 28.70B TRY stands well below the Central Bank of Turkey’s implied stabilization target, reflecting ongoing efforts to curb the current account deficit and manage currency volatility.
Market Lens
TRY strengthened modestly on the data release, as markets interpreted the import contraction as easing external imbalances. The sharp drop in imports has tempered expectations for further currency depreciation and provided some relief to Turkish assets, though concerns about underlying demand persist.Foundational Indicators
Historical Context
- February 2026: 28.70B TRY
- January 2026: 35.70B TRY
- December 2025: 30.50B TRY
- November 2025: 31.50B TRY
- October 2025: 29.50B TRY
Comparative Trends
February’s figure is 19.6% lower MoM and 6.7% below December’s level. Compared to the 12-month average of 31.1B TRY, imports are now running 7.7% below trend. The last time imports were this low was in late 2024, underscoring the scale of the current contraction.
Market Lens
Bond yields dipped on the release, reflecting expectations of reduced external funding needs. The import slump has shifted investor focus toward domestic demand resilience and the sustainability of Turkey’s trade adjustment.Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish (25–35%): Imports stabilize near 29B TRY as domestic demand recovers and currency volatility eases.
- Base (50–60%): Imports hover between 28–31B TRY, reflecting subdued consumption and ongoing policy restraint.
- Bearish (10–20%): Imports fall below 28B TRY if external financing tightens or domestic demand weakens further.
Risks and Catalysts
Upside risks include a rebound in energy prices or a relaxation of import controls. Downside risks stem from tighter global financial conditions and persistent lira volatility.
Market Lens
Equities in consumer and industrial sectors lagged the broader market after the data. Investors are watching for signs of a demand rebound or further policy tightening that could affect import-dependent industries.Closing Thoughts
Summary Takeaways
- Imports fell to 28.70B TRY in February, a 19.6% MoM drop.
- Current levels are 7.7% below the 12-month average.
- Market reaction was muted but positive for the lira and bonds.
Data Source & Methodology
Figures are sourced from the Sigmanomics database, cross-verified with official Turkish trade statistics. Data reflect monthly customs-cleared imports, denominated in Turkish lira, and are not seasonally adjusted.
Key Markets Reacting to Imports
Turkey’s import figures have direct and indirect effects on global markets, especially those with exposure to emerging market trade flows and currency risk. The following symbols are most sensitive to shifts in Turkish import activity, reflecting both local and international investor sentiment.
- AAPL — Indirect exposure via supply chain links and emerging market demand for electronics.
- EURUSD — Sensitive to Turkish trade flows and eurozone export demand.
- BTCUSD — Used as a hedge during periods of lira volatility and capital controls.
| Month | Imports (B TRY) | EURUSD (close) |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | 28.70 | Directional: EURUSD stable |
| Jan 2026 | 35.70 | Directional: EURUSD slightly higher |
| Dec 2025 | 30.50 | Directional: EURUSD unchanged |
| Nov 2025 | 31.50 | Directional: EURUSD modestly higher |
Since 2020, periods of falling Turkish imports have coincided with relative stability in EURUSD, as reduced import demand eases pressure on the lira and eurozone exporters.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What does the latest Turkish imports data show?
- Turkey’s imports dropped to 28.70B TRY in February 2026, marking a 19.6% decrease from January’s level and the lowest reading since late 2024.
- Why did Turkey’s imports fall so sharply this month?
- The contraction reflects weaker domestic demand, tighter policy, and a broad-based decline in energy and consumer goods imports.
- How do Turkish import trends affect global markets?
- Changes in Turkish imports influence currency markets, emerging market equities, and global supply chains, especially for sectors with direct trade exposure.
Turkey’s February import plunge signals a pivotal shift in trade dynamics and market sentiment.
Updated 2/26/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics database, Turkish Imports, February 2026 release.
- Turkish Statistical Institute, Foreign Trade Statistics, monthly releases.
February’s 28.70B TRY print marks a steep decline from January’s 35.70B TRY and sits well below the 12-month average of 31.1B TRY. The last five months show a clear downward trend, with November at 31.50B TRY and October at 29.50B TRY. This is the sharpest MoM drop since early 2024.
Compared to the recent peak in January, imports have fallen by 7.00B TRY, or nearly one-fifth. The contraction is broad-based, with energy and consumer goods leading the decline.