Turkey’s imports for December 2025 registered TRY 30.50 billion, a 3.20% decline from November’s TRY 31.50 billion, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This marks a partial retreat from the recent rebound after a sharp dip to TRY 25.90 billion in late September. Over the past 12 months, imports averaged TRY 29.50 billion, indicating that December’s figure remains slightly above the yearly average.

Drivers this month

• Energy imports softened amid global price stabilization, reducing import bills by approximately 0.40 pp.
• Currency depreciation pressures kept import costs elevated despite volume moderation.
• Supply chain normalization post-pandemic supported durable goods imports.

Policy pulse

Monetary policy remains restrictive, with the Central Bank of Turkey maintaining elevated interest rates to combat inflation. This dampens domestic demand and import growth, aligning with the observed import contraction.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The TRY weakened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over trade balance pressures and external financing needs.

Imports are a critical macroeconomic indicator reflecting domestic demand, currency valuation, and external trade dynamics. Turkey’s December import figure of TRY 30.50 billion contrasts with the previous month’s TRY 31.50 billion and the September low of TRY 25.90 billion. This volatility underscores the interplay of several foundational factors.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Central Bank’s tight stance, with policy rates above 20%, continues to restrain credit growth and consumer spending. Financial conditions remain tight, with real interest rates positive for the first time in over a year, contributing to subdued import demand.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy has been moderately expansionary, with increased government spending on infrastructure and social programs. However, the fiscal deficit remains contained at around 3.50% of GDP, limiting the stimulus impact on imports.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Geopolitical tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and ongoing regional conflicts have elevated risk premiums. These factors disrupt trade routes and increase import costs, particularly for energy and intermediate goods.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The TRY/USD exchange rate depreciated by 0.30% post-release, reflecting market concerns over trade deficits and foreign currency needs. Short-term bond yields edged higher by 5 bps, signaling cautious investor sentiment.

Looking ahead, Turkey’s import trajectory will be shaped by several key factors. The interplay between monetary policy, global commodity prices, and geopolitical developments will determine the pace of import growth or contraction.

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Global energy prices stabilize or decline, reducing import costs.
• Monetary easing begins in H2 2026, boosting domestic demand and import volumes.
• Geopolitical tensions ease, improving trade flows and investor confidence.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Monetary policy remains tight but stable, keeping import growth moderate.
• Energy prices fluctuate within a narrow range, maintaining import costs.
• Geopolitical risks persist but do not escalate significantly.

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Further monetary tightening to combat inflation suppresses import demand.
• Energy prices spike due to supply disruptions, increasing import bills.
• Geopolitical conflicts intensify, disrupting trade routes and raising costs.

Overall, the base case anticipates moderate import growth with downside risks from tighter financial conditions and external shocks. Upside potential hinges on policy easing and geopolitical stability.

Turkey’s December 2025 import data from the Sigmanomics database highlights a nuanced macroeconomic environment. The decline from November’s peak reflects the balancing act between monetary restraint and external pressures. While imports remain above the yearly average, the volatility signals caution for policymakers and investors.

Structural trends such as Turkey’s reliance on energy imports and sensitivity to currency fluctuations persist. Long-run growth in imports will depend on economic diversification, improved trade partnerships, and stable financial conditions.

Monitoring import trends alongside monetary policy signals and geopolitical developments will be crucial for anticipating Turkey’s economic trajectory in 2026.

Key Markets Likely to React to Imports

Turkey’s import data influences several key markets, especially those sensitive to trade flows, currency fluctuations, and commodity prices. Investors and traders should watch these assets closely as they historically correlate with import dynamics.

• USDTRY: The USD/TRY exchange rate reacts strongly to import-driven trade balance shifts and currency pressures.
• BIST100: Turkey’s main equity index reflects economic sentiment tied to import costs and domestic demand.
• BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price often moves inversely to emerging market currency stress, including Turkey’s TRY fluctuations.
• EURTRY: The euro’s exchange rate against TRY is sensitive to Turkey’s external trade and monetary policy shifts.
• ASELS: A major Turkish defense stock, sensitive to geopolitical risks impacting imports and investor sentiment.

FAQs

What does the latest import data for Turkey indicate?

The December 2025 import data shows a moderate decline from November but remains above the yearly average, signaling cautious demand amid tight monetary policy and external risks.

How does Turkey’s import trend affect its currency?

Higher import costs tend to pressure the Turkish lira downward due to trade deficits and foreign currency demand, as reflected in the USDTRY exchange rate movements.

What are the main risks to Turkey’s import outlook?

Risks include further monetary tightening, energy price volatility, and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt trade and increase import costs.

Takeaway: Turkey’s import data reveals a complex macro landscape where monetary policy, currency dynamics, and geopolitical factors interplay. The near-term outlook is balanced but leans toward caution, requiring close monitoring of external shocks and policy shifts.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 12/4/25

Sources

1. Sigmanomics database, Turkey Imports Data, December 2025 Release.
2. Central Bank of Turkey, Monetary Policy Reports, 2025.
3. International Energy Agency, Global Energy Prices, 2025.
4. World Bank, Turkey Economic Indicators, 2024–2025.