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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Industrial Production MoM fell to -1.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Turkey Industrial Production MoM fell to -1.0% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 1.2% from June's 0.2% reading. The reading matched the -1.0% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.07%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 0.3%, vs 0.9% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 35th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1
Actual
-1
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.23 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.78
Actual: -1
Error: +0.22
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Turkey) was reported at -1% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of -1% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.18%, ranging from -2.9% to 3.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.27%, down from the prior three at 0.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.57%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged -0.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/TRY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Sep 21) and Consumer Confidence (Sep 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - TR
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About Industrial Production MoM — Turkey
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -1 %, consensus -1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (May 2026): -2.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Production YoY | -19.2 | -11 | -28.65 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Sales YoY | -25 | -15 | -27.25 | Low | |