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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Industrial Production MoM fell to -2.9% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Turkey Industrial Production MoM fell to -2.9% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 6.7% from April's 3.8% reading. The reading missed the -1.6% consensus by 1.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.48%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 1.45%, vs 0.33% in the prior 3-month window. Industrial Production MoM is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
-2.9
Actual
-1.6
Consensus
3.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.6 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.05
Actual: -2.9
Error: +2.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Turkey) was reported at -2.9% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -1.6% by 1.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.2%, ranging from -2.9% to 3.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.67%, down from the prior three at 0.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.16%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.59%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged 0.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.6%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - TR
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About Industrial Production MoM — Turkey
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -2.9 %, consensus -1.6 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.7 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 15.9 | 9.9 | 18 | 16.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Exports | 24.9 | 22.4 | 24.94 | 25.91 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Imports | 35.3 | 28.1 | 35.3 | 36.40 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Balance of Trade | -10.37 | -5.65 | -10.4 | -10.52 | Medium |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -4.02 | -3.58 | -3 | -3.51 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index YoY | 28.09 | 27.4 | 27.45 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.99 | 1.83 | 2.28 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.8 | 1 | 1.30 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate YoY | 32.11 | 31.8 | 32.36 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.1 | 47.5 | 46.25 | Low | |