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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Industrial Production YoY fell to 0.0% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Turkey Industrial Production YoY fell to 0.0% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 6.1% from April's 6.1% reading. The reading missed the 5.1% consensus by 5.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.0%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production YoY averaged 2.45%, vs -0.57% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 41st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0
Actual
5.1
Consensus
6.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.51 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 8.4
Actual: 0
Error: +8.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (Turkey) was reported at 0% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.1% by 5.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3%, ranging from -2.1% to 8.3% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.4%, up from the prior three at 0.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.42%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 3.35%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production YoY has averaged 1.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.51%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CPI YoY (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - TR
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About Industrial Production YoY — Turkey
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0 %, consensus 5.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0 %. Before that (May 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.42) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 15.9 | 9.9 | 18 | 16.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Exports | 24.9 | 22.4 | 24.94 | 25.91 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Imports | 35.3 | 28.1 | 35.3 | 36.40 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Balance of Trade | -10.37 | -5.65 | -10.4 | -10.52 | Medium |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -4.02 | -3.58 | -3 | -3.51 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index YoY | 28.09 | 27.4 | 27.45 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.99 | 1.83 | 2.28 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.8 | 1 | 1.30 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate YoY | 32.11 | 31.8 | 32.36 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.1 | 47.5 | 46.25 | Low | |