Turkey’s Industrial Production YoY: February 2026 Data Shows Ongoing Contraction
Big-Picture Snapshot
- February 2026: Industrial Production YoY at -1.8% [1]
- January 2026: -2.1% [1]
- 12-month average: 3.38% (March 2025–February 2026)
- Peak in past year: 8.3% (August 2025)
- Lowest in past year: -2.1% (January 2026)
- Consensus estimate for February: -1.5% [1]
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing output: continued drag
- Energy production: subdued
- Intermediate goods: slight recovery
Policy pulse
Industrial output remains well below the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s growth targets, underscoring persistent economic headwinds.
Market lens
TRY weakened modestly after the release. Investors remain cautious as the data signals ongoing softness in Turkey’s industrial sector, with risk appetite subdued for local equities and bonds.Foundational Indicators
- February’s -1.8% YoY marks the second consecutive month of contraction [1]
- January’s -2.1% was the lowest reading since the pandemic recovery phase
- December 2025: 2.2% YoY growth
- November 2025: 2.9% YoY growth
- October 2025: 7.1% YoY growth
- August 2025: 8.3% YoY growth
Drivers this month
- Automotive and textiles: negative contributors
- Food processing: slight positive offset
- Export demand: remains weak
Policy pulse
With industrial output below trend, policymakers face pressure to support production without reigniting inflation.
Market lens
Equity indices in Istanbul traded flat post-release. Market participants are weighing the risk of prolonged stagnation against potential policy intervention.Chart Dynamics
Drivers this month
- Capital goods: underperformed
- Consumer durables: flat
- Construction materials: minor uptick
Policy pulse
Industrial contraction increases pressure on fiscal authorities to consider targeted stimulus, though inflationary risks remain a constraint.
Market lens
Bond yields edged higher on growth concerns. Investors are recalibrating expectations for Turkey’s economic trajectory, with industrial data reinforcing a cautious stance.Forward Outlook
- Bullish scenario (20–30%): Gradual recovery if export demand rebounds and energy costs stabilize
- Base case (50–60%): Continued stagnation with modest month-to-month fluctuations
- Bearish scenario (15–25%): Deeper contraction if global demand weakens further or domestic policy support falls short
Data sourced from the Turkish Statistical Institute and cross-verified with Sigmanomics database [1]. The YoY methodology compares February 2026 output to February 2025, adjusting for seasonal effects.
Drivers this month
- External demand: key swing factor
- Input costs: remain elevated
- Policy response: limited room for maneuver
Policy pulse
Authorities face a delicate balance between supporting growth and containing inflation, with industrial output trends likely to influence future decisions.
Market lens
TRY volatility remains elevated. Market participants are closely watching upcoming data for signs of stabilization or further deterioration.Closing Thoughts
Turkey’s industrial production remains in contraction, with February’s -1.8% YoY reading only a slight improvement from January’s low. The trend since late 2025 underscores persistent challenges, particularly in manufacturing and export-oriented sectors. Upside risks hinge on external demand and policy agility, while downside risks are tied to global headwinds and domestic constraints.
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing: main drag
- Energy: no significant rebound
- Intermediate goods: minor support
Policy pulse
With output below target, the policy debate will intensify as authorities weigh growth support against inflation control.
Market lens
Investor sentiment remains cautious. The industrial data reinforces a wait-and-see approach across Turkish assets.Key Markets Reacting to Industrial Production YoY
- AAPL — Global tech bellwether; Turkish industrial weakness can dampen emerging market demand for imported electronics.
- EURUSD — Eurozone is a major Turkish trading partner; softer Turkish output can weigh on regional trade flows.
- BTCUSD — Lira volatility and industrial data can spur local demand for crypto as a hedge.
| Year | Industrial Production YoY (%) | AAPL (direction) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -9.8 | Down |
| 2021 | 13.3 | Up |
| 2022 | 8.7 | Up |
| 2023 | 1.2 | Flat |
| 2024 | 2.9 | Up |
| 2025 | 4.9 | Up |
Since 2020, periods of Turkish industrial contraction have coincided with weaker AAPL performance in emerging markets, while expansion phases have supported global tech demand.
FAQ
-
What is Turkey’s Industrial Production YoY for February 2026?
Turkey’s industrial production contracted 1.8% year-over-year in February 2026, a slight improvement from January’s -2.1%. -
How does the latest data compare to recent trends?
The February reading remains below the 12-month average of 3.38%, with the sector in contraction for two consecutive months. -
Why is Industrial Production YoY important for Turkey?
This indicator tracks the annual change in industrial output, serving as a key gauge of economic momentum and manufacturing health.
Turkey’s industrial sector remains under pressure, with February’s data highlighting persistent challenges and limited signs of near-term recovery.
Updated 3/10/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics database, Turkish Statistical Institute, official releases as of 3/10/26.
February’s -1.8% YoY print improved from January’s -2.1% but remains well below the 12-month average of 3.38%. The series peaked at 8.3% in August 2025 and has since trended downward, with the last positive reading in December 2025 (2.2%). February marks the second straight month of contraction, highlighting persistent weakness across key industrial segments.
Compared to October’s 7.1% and November’s 2.9%, the current level underscores a sharp loss of momentum. The gap between actual and consensus (-1.8% vs. -1.5%) signals that downside risks remain prominent.