Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI: February Print Shows Slower Contraction
The Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI for Turkey climbed to 49.3 in February 2026, up from 48.1 in January. This marks the strongest reading since December 2023, though the index remains below the 50.0 mark that separates expansion from contraction. The latest data signals a slower pace of decline in manufacturing activity, with improvements in both output and new orders. However, the sector continues to face challenges from subdued export demand and persistent input cost pressures.[1]
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Output +0.7pp
- New orders +0.6pp
- Employment flat
- Export demand -0.2pp
- Input costs +0.3pp
Policy pulse
The February PMI reading of 49.3 remains below the 50.0 expansion threshold and well under the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s (CBRT) target for broad-based manufacturing growth.Market lens
TRY-denominated assets saw muted reaction after the release. The modest improvement in the PMI was largely anticipated by market participants, with most Turkish equities and bonds holding steady. Investors remain cautious as the index continues to signal contraction, albeit at a slower pace.Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
- Output index: 48.7 (Jan: 47.9)
- New orders: 48.2 (Jan: 47.6)
- Employment: 49.1 (Jan: 49.0)
- Supplier delivery times: 50.4 (Jan: 50.1)
Policy pulse
The PMI’s sub-50 reading underscores ongoing challenges for the CBRT’s efforts to stimulate industrial activity. The latest figures show some stabilization, but not enough to meet policy objectives for sustained expansion.Market lens
Bond yields remained stable post-release. Fixed income markets interpreted the data as a sign of persistent, but easing, headwinds in manufacturing. The lack of a decisive rebound kept risk appetite in check.Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish: PMI returns above 50.0 by May 2026 (25–35% probability) if domestic demand and exports accelerate.
- Base: Index hovers between 48.5 and 49.5 through Q2 2026 (50–60% probability), with gradual improvement but no clear expansion.
- Bearish: Renewed contraction below 48.0 (10–20% probability) if external shocks or cost pressures intensify.
Policy pulse
The CBRT is likely to maintain a cautious stance, as the PMI remains below the growth threshold and inflationary pressures persist.Market lens
Equities remain rangebound. The lack of a decisive PMI rebound has kept Turkish stocks in a holding pattern, with investors awaiting clearer signs of sustained recovery.Closing Thoughts
Drivers this month
- Gradual output recovery
- Stabilizing employment
- Persistent cost pressures
Policy pulse
The February PMI’s modest improvement offers some encouragement, but the index’s sub-50 reading signals that Turkish manufacturing remains in a challenging environment.Market lens
Investors remain cautious. The market is watching for further signs of momentum before re-rating Turkish industrial assets.Key Markets Reacting to Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI
The Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI is closely watched by investors in Turkish equities, currency, and global emerging market funds. The following symbols have shown sensitivity to PMI releases, reflecting shifts in sentiment and capital flows:
- AKBNK – Major Turkish bank, often moves on domestic economic data.
- THYAO – Turkish Airlines, sensitive to macroeconomic trends and industrial activity.
- USDTRY – The Turkish lira’s exchange rate versus the US dollar, a key barometer of investor confidence.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, used by some Turkish investors as a hedge during periods of lira volatility.
| Year | PMI Avg | USDTRY Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 51.6 | TRY depreciated steadily |
| 2021 | 52.1 | Sharp lira losses in Q4 |
| 2022 | 49.7 | Continued lira weakness |
| 2023 | 48.9 | Volatile, with brief stabilization |
| 2024–2026 | 47.7 | Persistent depreciation, tracking PMI dips |
FAQ
- What is the Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI?
- The Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI is a monthly gauge of manufacturing sector activity in Turkey, based on surveys of purchasing managers.
- What does the February 2026 PMI reading indicate?
- The February 2026 PMI rose to 49.3, signaling a slower pace of contraction in Turkish manufacturing compared to January’s 48.1.
- Why is the Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI important?
- It provides timely insight into Turkey’s industrial health and is closely watched by investors, policymakers, and businesses for economic signals.
Takeaway: February’s PMI signals easing contraction, but Turkish manufacturing remains below the expansion threshold.
Updated 3/2/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Istanbul Chamber of Industry, Manufacturing PMI press release, March 2, 2026
- Sigmanomics Economic Data Database, accessed March 2, 2026








