Key Takeaways: Turkey's overnight borrowing rate held steady at 35.50% in February, unchanged from January. The rate has declined by 11 percentage points over the past year, reflecting a gradual easing cycle. Market reaction muted as the Central Bank maintained its policy stance.
Turkey’s Overnight Borrowing Rate Holds at 35.50%: February Data Signals Steady Policy
Big-Picture Snapshot
- Drivers this month:
- Inflation moderation: -0.30pp
- TRY stability: +0.12pp
- External funding: +0.08pp
- Policy pulse: The overnight borrowing rate remained at 35.50% in February, matching January’s level and aligning with the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s (CBRT) stated policy corridor.
- Market lens: Muted market reaction followed the release, as investors had widely anticipated no change in the rate. The Turkish lira traded in a narrow range, and government bond yields showed little movement.
Foundational Indicators
- February’s overnight borrowing rate: 35.50% [1]
- January’s rate: unchanged at 35.50% [1]
- December 2025: 36.50% [1]
- October 2025: 38.00% [1]
- September 2025: 39.00% [1]
- 12-month high: 47.00% (October–November 2024) [1]
- 12-month low: current level [1]
- Policy pulse: The CBRT’s target corridor has narrowed as inflation pressures eased, with the overnight borrowing rate now at the lower end of the recent range.
- Market lens: Bond traders have shifted focus to forward guidance, as the current rate path signals a pause in the easing cycle. Swap spreads and short-term yields remain anchored.
Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: The overnight borrowing rate’s steady decline since late 2024 signals a deliberate policy normalization. The current level, now at its lowest in over a year, reflects improved inflation dynamics and a more stable lira. The chart underscores the CBRT’s cautious approach to easing, with the pace of cuts slowing as the policy rate nears its floor.
Forward Outlook
- Bullish scenario (20–30%): Faster disinflation and robust capital inflows could prompt further rate cuts, supporting TRY assets.
- Base scenario (50–60%): The CBRT maintains the current rate, monitoring inflation and external balances before any further moves.
- Bearish scenario (15–25%): Renewed inflation or currency volatility forces a pause or reversal in the easing cycle.
- Policy pulse: The CBRT’s forward guidance emphasizes data dependence, with the overnight borrowing rate likely to remain stable barring major shocks.
- Market lens: Investors are watching for signals from the CBRT’s next meeting, with swap markets pricing in limited near-term movement.
Data source: Sigmanomics, official CBRT releases. Methodology: End-of-period policy rate, cross-verified with central bank statements and market data.
Closing Thoughts
- February’s reading marks the lowest overnight borrowing rate in over a year, down 11.50 percentage points from the October 2024 high.
- Upside risks: Faster-than-expected disinflation, improved external balances.
- Downside risks: Geopolitical tensions, renewed inflation, capital outflows.
- Market lens: Stability in rates has anchored short-term yields and reduced volatility in Turkish assets.
Key Markets Reacting to Overnight Borrowing Rate
Turkey’s overnight borrowing rate is a key driver for local and global investors. Its movements ripple through equities, currency, and crypto markets, influencing capital flows and risk appetite. The following symbols have shown sensitivity to Turkish rate decisions:
BTCUSD has generally trended higher during periods of Turkish rate hikes, with a pause or reversal when rates stabilize or decline.
- AAPL: Indirect exposure via EM fund flows and risk sentiment.
- EURUSD: Correlated through cross-currency carry trades and eurozone-Turkey trade links.
- BTCUSD: Crypto flows often rise when TRY volatility increases.
| Year | Overnight Borrowing Rate (%) | BTCUSD Direction |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 8.25 | Up |
| 2021 | 17.00 | Up |
| 2022 | 14.00 | Down |
| 2023 | 30.00 | Up |
| 2024 | 47.00 | Up |
| 2025 | 36.50 | Down |
| 2026 | 35.50 | Flat |
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is Turkey’s overnight borrowing rate for February?
- Turkey’s overnight borrowing rate stood at 35.50% in February, unchanged from January, according to the latest CBRT data.
- How has the overnight borrowing rate changed over the past year?
- The rate has declined from a peak of 47.00% in October–November 2024 to 35.50% in February 2026, reflecting a gradual easing cycle.
- Why is the overnight borrowing rate important for Turkish markets?
- The overnight borrowing rate is a key policy tool for the CBRT, influencing liquidity, inflation, and capital flows in Turkey’s financial system.
Turkey’s overnight borrowing rate remains at its lowest level in over a year, signaling a cautious policy stance amid improved inflation dynamics.
Updated 3/12/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Database, Turkey Overnight Borrowing Rate, https://sigmanomics.com/economic-data/tr/overnight-borrowing-rate
- Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), official policy rate releases
February’s overnight borrowing rate printed at 35.50%, unchanged from January and below the 12-month average of 41.70%. The rate has dropped from 36.50% in December and 38.00% in October, marking a steady downward trend since the 47.00% peak in late 2024.
This marks the fifth consecutive month of either flat or lower readings. The pace of decline has moderated since the sharp cuts seen in early 2025.