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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Overnight Lending Rate fell to 39.0% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Turkey Overnight Lending Rate fell to 39.0% in October 2026, down 1.0% from September's 40.0% reading. The reading matched the 40.0% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 42.71%. Overnight Lending Rate is now the lowest in 35 months.
Latest Release
39
Actual
40
Consensus
40
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.38 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 40
Actual: 39
Error: +1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.82 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Overnight Lending Rate (Turkey) was reported at 39% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 40% by 1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 40%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 40%, ranging from 39% to 41% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 39.67%, down from the prior three at 40.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.58%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.38%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Overnight Lending Rate has averaged 44.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.38%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Nov 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Overnight Lending Rate - TR
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About Overnight Lending Rate — Turkey
DEFINITION
The Overnight Lending Rate is a key financial indicator that measures the interest rate at which banks lend money to each other on an overnight basis. This rate is used as a benchmark for short-term borrowing and reflects the current state of the economy and monetary policy. It is closely monitored by financial institutions and investors as it can impact the cost of borrowing and overall market liquidity. A higher Overnight Lending Rate typically indicates a tighter credit market, while a lower rate suggests a more accommodative lending environment.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 39 %, consensus 40 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 40 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 40 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.82) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Economic Confidence Index | 97.3 | 101.3 | 101 | 99.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 25.5 | 15.9 | 27 | 26.25 | Low |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 0.4 | -0.03 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.9 | 48 | 48.10 | Low | |