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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Overnight Lending Rate held to 40.0% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Turkey Overnight Lending Rate held to 40.0% in September 2026. The reading matched the 40.0% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 43.79%. Overnight Lending Rate is now the lowest in 34 months.
Latest Release
40
Actual
40
Consensus
40
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 40
Actual: 40
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.96 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Overnight Lending Rate (Turkey) was reported at 40% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 40% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 40.58%, ranging from 40% to 42.5% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 40%, down from the prior three at 41.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.93%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.82%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Overnight Lending Rate has averaged 45.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Sep 21) and Consumer Confidence (Sep 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Overnight Lending Rate - TR
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About Overnight Lending Rate — Turkey
DEFINITION
The Overnight Lending Rate is a key financial indicator that measures the interest rate at which banks lend money to each other on an overnight basis. This rate is used as a benchmark for short-term borrowing and reflects the current state of the economy and monetary policy. It is closely monitored by financial institutions and investors as it can impact the cost of borrowing and overall market liquidity. A higher Overnight Lending Rate typically indicates a tighter credit market, while a lower rate suggests a more accommodative lending environment.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 40 %, consensus 40 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 40 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 40 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.96) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Production YoY | -19.2 | -11 | -28.65 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Sales YoY | -25 | -15 | -27.25 | Low | |