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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Overnight Lending Rate held to 40.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Turkey Overnight Lending Rate held to 40.0% in July 2026. The reading matched the 40.0% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 44.88%. Overnight Lending Rate is now the lowest in 32 months.
Latest Release
40
Actual
40
Consensus
40
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 40
Actual: 40
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Overnight Lending Rate (Turkey) was reported at 40% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 40% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 41.17%, ranging from 40% to 43.5% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 40%, down from the prior three at 42.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.37%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.54%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Overnight Lending Rate has averaged 46.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Overnight Lending Rate - TR
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About Overnight Lending Rate — Turkey
DEFINITION
The Overnight Lending Rate is a key financial indicator that measures the interest rate at which banks lend money to each other on an overnight basis. This rate is used as a benchmark for short-term borrowing and reflects the current state of the economy and monetary policy. It is closely monitored by financial institutions and investors as it can impact the cost of borrowing and overall market liquidity. A higher Overnight Lending Rate typically indicates a tighter credit market, while a lower rate suggests a more accommodative lending environment.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 40 %, consensus 40 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 40 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 40 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.74) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 15.9 | 9.9 | 18 | 16.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Exports | 24.9 | 22.4 | 24.94 | 25.91 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Imports | 35.3 | 28.1 | 35.3 | 36.40 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Balance of Trade | -10.37 | -5.65 | -10.4 | -10.52 | Medium |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -4.02 | -3.58 | -3 | -3.51 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index YoY | 28.09 | 27.4 | 27.45 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.99 | 1.83 | 2.28 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.8 | 1 | 1.30 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate YoY | 32.11 | 31.8 | 32.36 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.1 | 47.5 | 46.25 | Low | |