Turkey’s Retail Sales MoM Surges 2.20% in November: A Data-Driven Macro Outlook
Turkey’s retail sales rose 2.20% MoM in November, beating estimates by 1.40 percentage points. This marks the highest monthly gain since June 2025 and signals robust consumer demand amid tightening monetary policy. Key drivers include durable goods and food sectors, while inflation and geopolitical risks temper optimism. Financial markets reacted with TRY strength and rising short-term yields. The data suggests a bullish base case for growth but highlights vulnerabilities from external shocks and fiscal constraints.
Table of Contents
Turkey’s retail sales MoM surged 2.20% in November 2025, well above the 0.80% consensus and last month’s 1.20% gain, according to the Sigmanomics database. This marks the strongest monthly increase since June’s 2.80% peak. The rebound reflects resilient consumer spending despite ongoing inflationary pressures and monetary tightening. Over the past 12 months, retail sales averaged a modest 1.10% monthly growth, underscoring November’s standout performance.
Drivers this month
- Durable goods contributed 0.90 pp, driven by appliance and electronics demand.
- Food and beverage sales added 0.70 pp, reflecting seasonal consumption.
- Automotive retail rose 0.30 pp, supported by easing credit conditions.
- Clothing and apparel were flat, indicating cautious discretionary spending.
Policy pulse
The 2.20% print exceeds the central bank’s inflation target corridor, suggesting consumer demand remains robust despite the 15% policy rate. This may complicate efforts to cool inflation, which remains above 30% YoY. The data signals persistent underlying price pressures and a potential need for further monetary tightening.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Turkish lira (TRY) strengthened 0.50% versus the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 15 basis points, reflecting hawkish repricing. The BIST 100 index dipped slightly, weighed down by inflation concerns.
Retail sales are a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting household consumption, which accounts for roughly 60% of Turkey’s GDP. The 2.20% MoM increase signals strong domestic demand, a key driver of economic growth. This contrasts with the 0.90% gain in October and the negative -0.20% in September, highlighting volatility amid shifting economic conditions.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has maintained a tight monetary stance with a 15% benchmark rate to combat inflation. Despite this, retail sales growth suggests that credit availability and consumer confidence remain sufficient to fuel spending. Inflationary pressures, however, continue to erode real purchasing power, complicating the policy outlook.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal stimulus remains limited as the government focuses on budget consolidation ahead of elections. Public sector wage hikes and subsidies have supported disposable incomes but are unlikely to accelerate retail sales further. The fiscal deficit remains contained at 3.50% of GDP, limiting expansionary fiscal options.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Turkey faces ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region, including border conflicts and energy supply uncertainties. These risks could disrupt trade and consumer sentiment, potentially dampening retail sales momentum in coming months.
This chart highlights a clear upward trajectory in retail sales since the September trough. The November spike suggests consumers are absorbing inflation impacts, possibly due to wage support and credit availability. However, volatility warns of sensitivity to external shocks and policy shifts.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The TRY/USD exchange rate appreciated 0.50% post-release, reflecting confidence in economic resilience. Short-term yields rose, signaling market expectations of tighter monetary policy ahead. Equity markets showed mild profit-taking amid inflation concerns.
Looking ahead, Turkey’s retail sales trajectory depends on several factors. A bullish scenario (30% probability) envisions sustained consumer spending growth of 1.50–2.50% MoM, driven by wage growth, credit expansion, and stable geopolitical conditions. This would support GDP growth above 4% in 2026.
The base case (50% probability) expects retail sales to moderate to 0.50–1.00% MoM as inflation pressures persist and monetary tightening continues. Growth would remain positive but subdued, with GDP growth near 3%.
The bearish scenario (20% probability) involves a sharp slowdown or contraction (-0.50% to 0% MoM) triggered by renewed geopolitical shocks, tighter credit, or fiscal austerity. This could push GDP growth below 2% and increase financial market volatility.
Structural & long-run trends
Turkey’s retail sector is gradually shifting towards e-commerce and digital payments, which may smooth volatility in physical retail sales. Demographic trends, including a young population and urbanization, support long-term consumption growth. However, inflation volatility and currency risks remain structural challenges.
November’s 2.20% MoM retail sales surge underscores Turkey’s resilient consumer demand amid complex macroeconomic conditions. While the data points to a robust near-term outlook, inflation, monetary policy tightening, and geopolitical risks pose significant headwinds. Policymakers must balance growth support with inflation control to sustain momentum.
Financial markets have priced in a hawkish stance, with the TRY strengthening and bond yields rising. Investors should monitor upcoming inflation prints, credit conditions, and geopolitical developments closely. The retail sales data from the Sigmanomics database remains a vital barometer for Turkey’s economic health and policy calibration.
Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales MoM
Turkey’s retail sales data historically influences currency, bond, equity, and commodity markets. The TRY/USD pair often reacts sharply to consumer spending signals, reflecting economic confidence. Short-term Turkish government bonds adjust yields based on inflation and policy expectations. The BIST 100 equity index tracks domestic demand trends, while commodity-linked stocks respond to consumption shifts.
- USDTTRY: Directly impacted by retail sales strength, reflecting currency sentiment.
- BIST100: Equity index sensitive to consumer demand fluctuations.
- AKBNK.IS: Banking sector stock, correlates with credit growth and retail spending.
- BTCUSD: Crypto market sentiment can reflect risk appetite linked to macro data.
- EURTRY: Sensitive to Turkey’s macro outlook and geopolitical risks.
Insight: Retail Sales vs. USDTTRY Since 2020
Since 2020, Turkey’s retail sales MoM growth has shown a moderate inverse correlation with the USDTTRY exchange rate. Periods of strong retail sales growth often coincide with TRY appreciation, as consumer confidence boosts economic outlook. Conversely, retail slumps align with TRY depreciation amid inflation fears. This dynamic underscores the importance of retail sales as a leading indicator for currency traders.
| Year | Avg Retail Sales MoM (%) | USDTTRY Avg Exchange Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.80 | 7.00 |
| 2021 | 1.20 | 8.50 |
| 2022 | 0.50 | 13.00 |
| 2023 | 1.00 | 18.50 |
| 2024 | 1.10 | 20.00 |
| 2025 (YTD) | 1.30 | 19.00 |
FAQ
- What does Turkey’s Retail Sales MoM data indicate about economic growth?
- The data signals strong consumer demand, a key driver of GDP growth, suggesting resilience despite inflation and monetary tightening.
- How does retail sales growth affect Turkey’s monetary policy?
- Robust retail sales may prompt the central bank to maintain or increase interest rates to control inflation, balancing growth and price stability.
- Why is the Retail Sales MoM important for currency traders?
- Retail sales reflect economic health and consumer confidence, influencing currency strength and market sentiment toward the Turkish lira.
Key takeaway: Turkey’s November retail sales surge to 2.20% MoM highlights strong consumer demand amid inflation and policy tightening, setting a complex stage for growth and monetary policy in 2026.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
November’s retail sales MoM of 2.20% outpaces October’s 0.90% and the 12-month average of 1.10%. This rebound reverses the September dip of -0.20%, signaling renewed consumer strength. The chart below illustrates the monthly volatility, with spikes in March (2.00%) and June (2.80%) framing the current surge.
Seasonal factors and easing credit conditions contributed to durable goods and food sector gains. The upward trend since September suggests improving consumer confidence despite inflationary headwinds.