Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Retail Sales MoM climbed to 2.4% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Turkey Retail Sales MoM climbed to 2.4% in May 2026, released July 2026, up 4.0% from April's -1.6% reading. The print exceeded the 0.3% consensus by 2.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.23%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged 0.45%, vs 1.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 84th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.4
Actual
0.3
Consensus
-1.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.52 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.73
Actual: 2.4
Error: -1.67
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (Turkey) was reported at 2.4% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 2.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.36%, ranging from -1.7% to 2.6% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.1%, down from the prior three at 1.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.35%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.86%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.52%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Retail Sales MoM - TR
Loading chart data...
About Retail Sales MoM — Turkey
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 2.4 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -1.7 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 2.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.54) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 15.9 | 9.9 | 18 | 16.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Exports | 24.9 | 22.4 | 24.94 | 25.91 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Imports | 35.3 | 28.1 | 35.3 | 36.40 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Balance of Trade | -10.37 | -5.65 | -10.4 | -10.52 | Medium |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -4.02 | -3.58 | -3 | -3.51 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index YoY | 28.09 | 27.4 | 27.45 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.99 | 1.83 | 2.28 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.8 | 1 | 1.30 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate YoY | 32.11 | 31.8 | 32.36 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.1 | 47.5 | 46.25 | Low | |