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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Retail Sales YoY fell to 11.4% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Turkey Retail Sales YoY fell to 11.4% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 10.3% from March's 21.7% reading. The reading missed the 19.0% consensus by 7.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 15.24%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 18.4%, vs 16.43% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales YoY is now the lowest in 20 months.
Latest Release
11.4
Actual
19
Consensus
21.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.48 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 14.75
Actual: 21.2
Error: -6.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Turkey) was reported at 11.4% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 19% by 7.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 21.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 18.77%, up from the prior three at 12.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.48%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 19) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - TR
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About Retail Sales YoY — Turkey
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 11.4 %, consensus 19 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 21.2 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 15.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.