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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Retail Sales YoY climbed to 10.1% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Turkey Retail Sales YoY climbed to 10.1% in August 2026, released October 2026, up 0.2% from July's 9.9% reading. The reading matched the 9.9% consensus. Retail Sales YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 11.1%, vs 16.3% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales YoY is now the lowest in 24 months.
Latest Release
10.1
Actual
9.9
Consensus
9.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 9.7
Actual: 10.1
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Turkey) was reported at 10.1% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 9.9% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 9.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.21%, ranging from 10.1% to 21.2% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 10.77%, down from the prior three at 15.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.65%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.92%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 11.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Nov 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - TR
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About Retail Sales YoY — Turkey
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 10.1 %, consensus 9.9 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 10.4 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 11.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.43) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Economic Confidence Index | 97.3 | 101.3 | 101 | 99.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 25.5 | 15.9 | 27 | 26.25 | Low |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 0.4 | -0.03 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.9 | 48 | 48.10 | Low | |