Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Retail Sales YoY fell to 11.4% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Turkey Retail Sales YoY fell to 11.4% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 10.3% from March's 21.7% reading. The reading missed the 19.0% consensus by 7.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 15.24%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 18.4%, vs 16.43% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales YoY is now the lowest in 20 months.
Latest Release
11.4
Actual
19
Consensus
21.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 9.1
Actual: 13.7
Error: -4.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Turkey) was reported at 11.4% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 19% by 7.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 21.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 15.4%, ranging from 11.4% to 21.2% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 15.43%, down from the prior three at 16.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.31%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 3.54%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CPI YoY (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Retail Sales YoY - TR
Loading chart data...
About Retail Sales YoY — Turkey
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 13.7 %, consensus 9 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 11.4 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 21.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.43) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Unemployment Rate | 7.6 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 8.00 | Medium |
| 07:00 | TR | Participation Rate | 52.9 | 52.8 | 52.8 | 52.85 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Economic Confidence Index | 99.8 | 98.9 | 98.4 | 99.10 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 15.9 | 9.9 | 18 | 16.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Exports | 24.9 | 22.4 | 24.94 | 25.91 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Imports | 35.3 | 28.1 | 35.3 | 36.40 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Balance of Trade | -10.37 | -5.65 | -10.4 | -10.52 | Medium |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -4.02 | -3.58 | -3 | -3.51 | Low |