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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Retail Sales YoY fell to 10.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Turkey Retail Sales YoY fell to 10.4% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 1.1% from June's 11.5% reading. The reading missed the 11.0% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 14.74%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 11.6%, vs 18.4% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales YoY is now the lowest in 23 months.
Latest Release
10.4
Actual
11
Consensus
11.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.23 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 10.48
Actual: 10.4
Error: +0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Turkey) was reported at 10.4% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 11% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 11.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.44%, ranging from 10.4% to 21.2% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 11.97%, down from the prior three at 17.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.44%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.79%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Sep 21) and Consumer Confidence (Sep 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - TR
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About Retail Sales YoY — Turkey
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 10.4 %, consensus 11 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 11.8 %. Before that (May 2026): 13.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.43) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Production YoY | -19.2 | -11 | -28.65 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Sales YoY | -25 | -15 | -27.25 | Low | |