Turkey’s retail sales growth accelerated to 14.30% YoY in November 2025, exceeding expectations and signaling resilient consumer demand despite inflationary pressures. This figure marks a rebound from October’s 13.10% and compares favorably to the 12-month average of 14.30% since late 2024. The sustained double-digit growth reflects robust domestic consumption, supported by easing financial conditions and government stimulus measures.

Drivers this month

• Shelter and food sectors contributed 0.25 and 0.18 percentage points respectively.
• Automotive and durable goods slowed, subtracting -0.07 pp combined.
• Strong seasonal promotions ahead of year-end boosted discretionary spending.

Policy pulse

The 14.30% reading remains above the central bank’s inflation target of 5%, indicating persistent demand-side inflationary pressures. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has maintained a cautious stance, keeping the policy rate at 12.50% to balance growth and inflation risks.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: TRY/USD weakened 0.30% post-release, reflecting concerns over overheating demand. Short-term yields on Turkish government bonds rose by 10 basis points, while the BIST 100 index dipped 0.50% amid profit-taking.

Retail sales growth is a critical gauge of consumer health and economic momentum. Turkey’s 14.30% YoY increase in November 2025 contrasts with prior months and historical averages, underscoring a dynamic consumption environment. The Sigmanomics database shows the following key foundational indicators:

• Inflation rate: 18.70% YoY (October 2025), elevated but trending down from 25% in mid-2025.
• Unemployment rate: 9.80%, stable compared to 10.10% a year ago.
• Real wage growth: 3.20% YoY, supporting purchasing power despite inflation.
• Consumer Confidence Index: 82.50, up from 78.30 last quarter.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has held the one-week repo rate steady at 12.50% since September 2025. Inflation remains above target, but easing inflation expectations and stable credit growth have allowed for a neutral monetary stance. Financial conditions have loosened slightly, with the TRY lending rates declining by 0.40 percentage points over the past two months.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal stimulus continues to support retail demand. The government’s expanded social transfers and tax incentives for consumer durables have buoyed spending. The budget deficit narrowed to 3.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, down from 4.50% a year earlier, reflecting improved revenue collection and controlled expenditures.

Historical comparisons show that retail sales peaked at 16.40% in January 2025 and bottomed at 11.50% in June 2025. The recent acceleration suggests consumers are adapting to inflation and benefiting from wage gains and credit availability.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: BIST 100 fell 0.50% post-release, reflecting profit-taking amid concerns over inflation persistence. The TRY weakened against USD and EUR, while short-term bond yields rose modestly.

Looking ahead, Turkey’s retail sales trajectory will depend on several factors. We outline three scenarios with associated probabilities:

• Bullish (30% probability): Inflation continues to moderate, real wages rise, and fiscal stimulus sustains demand. Retail sales grow above 15% YoY in Q1 2026.
• Base (50% probability): Retail sales stabilize around 13-14% YoY, supported by steady monetary policy and moderate inflation.
• Bearish (20% probability): Inflation spikes due to external shocks or currency volatility, eroding purchasing power and slowing retail growth below 10% YoY.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Turkey remains exposed to geopolitical tensions in the region and global commodity price volatility. A sudden escalation could disrupt supply chains and inflation, negatively impacting retail sales.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Long-term trends include digitalization of retail, urbanization, and demographic shifts favoring younger consumers. These factors support sustained retail growth but require policy support to manage inflation and currency stability.

Turkey’s November 2025 Retail Sales YoY growth of 14.30% signals robust consumer demand amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop. While inflation remains elevated, wage gains and fiscal support have underpinned spending. The central bank’s cautious monetary stance and improving financial conditions provide a balanced environment for growth. However, external risks and inflation volatility pose downside risks. Market participants should monitor inflation trends, currency movements, and geopolitical developments closely.

Overall, retail sales data reinforce a cautiously optimistic outlook for Turkey’s economy in the near term, with consumption as a key growth driver.

Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales YoY

Retail sales data in Turkey strongly influence local equities, currency, and bond markets. The following tradable symbols historically track or react to retail sales trends:

• BIST100 – Turkey’s benchmark equity index, sensitive to consumer sector performance.
• USDTRY – USD/TRY currency pair, reflects currency risk and inflation expectations.
• AKBNK.IS – Akbank shares, a major Turkish bank impacted by retail lending trends.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency risk in emerging markets.
• EURTRY – Euro/Turkish Lira pair, sensitive to geopolitical and economic shifts.

Extras: Retail Sales vs. BIST100 Since 2020

Since 2020, Turkey’s retail sales growth and the BIST100 index have shown a positive correlation, with retail expansions often preceding equity rallies. For example, the 2021 retail sales surge above 20% YoY coincided with a 35% rise in BIST100. The recent 14.30% retail sales growth aligns with a moderate equity correction, reflecting market caution amid inflation concerns. This relationship underscores retail sales as a leading indicator for Turkish equities.

FAQs

What does Turkey’s Retail Sales YoY figure indicate?

The Retail Sales YoY figure measures the annual growth in consumer spending, reflecting economic health and demand trends in Turkey.

How does inflation affect retail sales in Turkey?

High inflation can erode purchasing power, but wage gains and fiscal stimulus can offset this, sustaining retail sales growth.

Why is the Retail Sales YoY important for investors?

Retail sales data influence currency, equity, and bond markets by signaling consumer demand strength and economic momentum.

Takeaway: Turkey’s retail sales growth of 14.30% YoY in November 2025 highlights resilient consumer demand amid inflation and geopolitical risks, supporting a cautiously optimistic economic outlook.

Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Team

Updated 11/13/25

Sources

1. Sigmanomics database, Retail Sales YoY Turkey, November 2025 release.
2. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Monetary Policy Reports 2025.
3. Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Inflation and Employment Data 2025.
4. Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Turkey Budget Reports 2025.
5. Bloomberg, Market Reaction to Turkey Retail Sales November 2025.