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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision held to 37.0% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision held to 37.0% in June 2026. The reading matched the 37.0% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 42.88%. TCMB Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 31 months.
Latest Release
37
Actual
37
Consensus
37
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 37
Actual: 37
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
TCMB Interest Rate Decision (Turkey) was reported at 37% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 37% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 40.14%, ranging from 37% to 46% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 37.33%, down from the prior three at 41%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.1%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.73%). In June readings over the past 3 years, TCMB Interest Rate Decision has averaged 44.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/TRY (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Jun 19) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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TCMB Interest Rate Decision - TR
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About TCMB Interest Rate Decision — Turkey
DEFINITION
The TCMB Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the monetary policy decisions made by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. This decision, which is announced monthly, determines the benchmark interest rate that influences borrowing and lending rates throughout the country. It is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and individuals as it can have a significant impact on the overall economy and financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 37 %, consensus 37 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 37 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 37 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/TRY (Bearish USD, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.