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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision held to 37.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision held to 37.0% in July 2026. The reading matched the 37.0% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 41.79%. TCMB Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 32 months.
Latest Release
37
Actual
37
Consensus
37
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 37
Actual: 37
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
TCMB Interest Rate Decision (Turkey) was reported at 37% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 37% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 38.17%, ranging from 37% to 40.5% across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 37%, down from the prior three at 39.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.37%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.95%). In July readings over the past 3 years, TCMB Interest Rate Decision has averaged 43.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CPI YoY (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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TCMB Interest Rate Decision - TR
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About TCMB Interest Rate Decision — Turkey
DEFINITION
The TCMB Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the monetary policy decisions made by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. This decision, which is announced monthly, determines the benchmark interest rate that influences borrowing and lending rates throughout the country. It is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and individuals as it can have a significant impact on the overall economy and financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 37 %, consensus 37 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 37 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 37 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.74) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 15.9 | 9.9 | 18 | 16.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Exports | 24.9 | 22.4 | 24.94 | 25.91 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Imports | 35.3 | 28.1 | 35.3 | 36.40 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Balance of Trade | -10.37 | -5.65 | -10.4 | -10.52 | Medium |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -4.02 | -3.58 | -3 | -3.51 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index YoY | 28.09 | 27.4 | 27.45 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.99 | 1.83 | 2.28 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.8 | 1 | 1.30 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Inflation Rate YoY | 32.11 | 31.8 | 32.36 | Medium | |
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.1 | 47.5 | 46.25 | Low | |