Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision held to 37.0% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision held to 37.0% in September 2026. The reading matched the 37.0% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 40.71%. TCMB Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 34 months.
Latest Release
37
Actual
37
Consensus
37
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 37
Actual: 37
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/TRY | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
TCMB Interest Rate Decision (Turkey) was reported at 37% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 37% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 37.58%, ranging from 37% to 39.5% across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 37%, down from the prior three at 38.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.93%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.34%). In September readings over the past 3 years, TCMB Interest Rate Decision has averaged 42.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/TRY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Sep 21) and Consumer Confidence (Sep 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
TCMB Interest Rate Decision - TR
Loading chart data...
About TCMB Interest Rate Decision — Turkey
DEFINITION
The TCMB Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the monetary policy decisions made by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. This decision, which is announced monthly, determines the benchmark interest rate that influences borrowing and lending rates throughout the country. It is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and individuals as it can have a significant impact on the overall economy and financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 37 %, consensus 37 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 37 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 37 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Production YoY | -19.2 | -11 | -28.65 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Sales YoY | -25 | -15 | -27.25 | Low | |