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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision fell to 36.0% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision fell to 36.0% in October 2026, down 1.0% from September's 37.0% reading. The reading matched the 36.0% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 40.04%. TCMB Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 35 months.
Latest Release
36
Actual
36
Consensus
37
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 36
Actual: 36
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.86 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/TRY | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
TCMB Interest Rate Decision (Turkey) was reported at 36% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 36% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 37%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 37%, ranging from 36% to 38% across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 36.67%, down from the prior three at 37.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.58%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.18%). In October readings over the past 3 years, TCMB Interest Rate Decision has averaged 41.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/TRY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Nov 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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TCMB Interest Rate Decision - TR
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About TCMB Interest Rate Decision — Turkey
DEFINITION
The TCMB Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the monetary policy decisions made by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. This decision, which is announced monthly, determines the benchmark interest rate that influences borrowing and lending rates throughout the country. It is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and individuals as it can have a significant impact on the overall economy and financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 36 %, consensus 36 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 37 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 37 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.86) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Economic Confidence Index | 97.3 | 101.3 | 101 | 99.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 25.5 | 15.9 | 27 | 26.25 | Low |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 0.4 | -0.03 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |